Taiwan four years from now

Politics Taiwan Politics
1

In four years…

    1. President Chen is ready to step down after two terms as president. His successor is campaigning against a KMT opponent.
    1. President Chen is ready to step down after two terms as president. His successor is campaigning against an opposition candidate representing a party that resulted from the reorganization of Pan Blue forces.
    1. President Chen is ready to step down after two terms as president. His successor is campaigning against more than one member of what four years ago was called the Pan Blue Alliance.
    1. President Chen has enforced Martial Law and there will be no election this year.
    1. President Lian Zhan is running for a second term, after one way or another overturning the original election result.
    1. Vice President James Soong is running for President, hoping to replace Lien Chan – who is stepping down – as president on May 20.

0 voters

I just posted a somewhat unusual poll question on the ICRT website.

And while I know forumosans will find much fault with the scenarios I came up with, many of you may still be interested in submitting your response (you’re asked to choose from among several scenarios that we might witness less than four years from now. The sub question is “is the KMT going to fall apart?”.

The choices are

  1. President Chen is ready to step down after two terms as president. His successor is campaigning against a KMT opponent.
  2. President Chen is ready to step down after two terms as president. His successor is campaigning against an opposition candidate representing a party that resulted from the reorganization of Pan Blue forces.
  3. President Chen is ready to step down after two terms as president. His successor is campaigning against more than one member of what four years ago was called the Pan Blue Alliance.
  4. President Chen has enforced Martial Law and there will be no election this year.
  5. President Lian Zhan is running for a second term, after one way or another overturning the original election result.
  6. Vice President James Soong is running for President, hoping to replace Lian Zhan – who is stepping down – as president on May 20.
  7. Other.

To participate in the poll, go to the http://www.icrt.com.tw website and click on the poll question about midway down.

If you think an entirely different situation will be in effect and you post it here, I may mention it on air when I report on the poll question during the morning news.

2

TAR - Taiwan Autonomous Region.

3

Unification was one of the scenarios I considered, but I decided putting it online would be rather too cheeky … especially given that Lian has said he’s in favor of maintaining the status quo for a generation or so.

4

2008: Mayor Ma becomes President Ma, life goes on, China repudiates Communism after Olympics, New York Yankees play Boston Red Sox in preseason exhibition game in Taipei Dome, Wu Bai goes solo, a weekly English newspaper joins the Big Three dailies, TAIEX hits 15,000, everyone (almost everyone) is happy…

5

There is an error in the poll.

Option 2 and option 7 are the same.

6

I heard that Douglas Paal, head of AIT, said last week to a visiting big cheese that AIT now have a scenario plan assumption of a Taiwan /China war in 2006. I personally think this unlikely but if the representatives of the US government here think it is a realistic possibility then presumably it should be seen as a possible scenario for your review.

7

[quote=“Scuba”]
I heard that Douglas Paal, head of AIT, said last week to a visiting big cheese that AIT now have a scenario plan assumption of a Taiwan /China war in 2006. I personally think this unlikely but if the representatives of the US government here think it is a realistic possibility then presumably it should be seen as a possible scenario for your review.[/quote]

There are MORE people getting into the promotion of a war scenario, namely UCLA professor Tom Plate, who writes a global news column on China and Taiwan, and recently war is coming, and another UCLA prof named Richard Baum.

Google them both separately to find their POV. Here are two recent links:

japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/get … 0404tp.htm

Taiwan invasion scenario not so unlikely

By TOM PLATE,
4-3-2004

It’s unimaginable that China would ever go to war against Taiwan, right? Until recently, that’s what I thought.

And so I used to laugh when learned scholars such as UCLA’s Richard Baum would refuse to rule out the possibility of such military action. How could they be so oblivious to the primacy of economics over politics in our globalized world?

mercurynews.com/mld/mercuryn … 352722.htm

Chinese puzzle

Apr. 04, 2004

After Taiwan’s presidential election, China can no longer assume most of the island’s people wish to unite with the mainland. Beijing must decide how far to bend.

By Richard Baum, UCLA

The bitterly contested Taiwan presidential election last month has dashed – perhaps forever – Beijing’s dream of a unified ``One China.’’

8

[quote]There is an error in the poll.

Option 2 and option 7 are the same.[/quote]

You’re absolutely right. The missing scenario is that A-bian’s successor is running against a reorganized (i.e. non-KMT) Pan-Blue ticket. It’s now in the hands of the webmaster, and it doesn’t appear it’s going to ever look like I intended.

As of this moment, there are five scenarios and “other”.

9

The ICRT poll does not have the response I would give, which was included in the opening post here. What is going on? Is creating a poll that difficult? Duplications, omissions…come on.
Where is:
2. President Chen is ready to step down after two terms as president. His successor is campaigning against an opposition candidate representing a party that resulted from the reorganization of Pan Blue forces.

10

Lien/Soong’s Monopoly card:

Go to China
Go indirectly to China
Do not pass the Presidential Palace
Do not collect 200 Gadzillion Dollars

11

I hope this could happen, let’s say, in ten years.

That would be so nice. :smiley:

12

Well, the ICRT poll is now looking the way I initially intended.

The addition of the original Q.2, which was initially omitted, has made a huge difference. Given a choice between the DPP against the KMT or a reorganized party, people seem to be choosing the reorganized party.

Of course this is all very unscientific.

13

[quote=“lane119”][quote=“Scuba”]
I heard that Douglas Paal, head of AIT, said last week to a visiting big cheese that AIT now have a scenario plan assumption of a Taiwan /China war in 2006. I personally think this unlikely but if the representatives of the US government here think it is a realistic possibility then presumably it should be seen as a possible scenario for your review.[/quote]

There are MORE people getting into the promotion of a war scenario, namely UCLA professor Tom Plate, who writes a global news column on China and Taiwan, and recently war is coming, and another UCLA prof named Richard Baum.

Google them both separately to find their POV. Here are two recent links:

japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/get … 0404tp.htm

Taiwan invasion scenario not so unlikely

By TOM PLATE,
4-3-2004

It’s unimaginable that China would ever go to war against Taiwan, right? Until recently, that’s what I thought.

And so I used to laugh when learned scholars such as UCLA’s Richard Baum would refuse to rule out the possibility of such military action. How could they be so oblivious to the primacy of economics over politics in our globalized world?

mercurynews.com/mld/mercuryn … 352722.htm

Chinese puzzle

Apr. 04, 2004

After Taiwan’s presidential election, China can no longer assume most of the island’s people wish to unite with the mainland. Beijing must decide how far to bend.

By Richard Baum, UCLA

The bitterly contested Taiwan presidential election last month has dashed – perhaps forever – Beijing’s dream of a unified ``One China.’’[/quote]

Don’t put too much weight behind Plate’s writing. His columns for the Straits Times in Singapore are weak. Overall, his Asia Pacific Media Netowrk (based at UCLA) has a history of kissing ass to local governments in the region. Basically he is a dingleberry on Felix Soh’s ass. Take a look at this interview with Lee Kuan Yew’s son and soon to be PM of Singapore.

app.sgnews.gov.sg/data/Interviews/20010805.html

Pathetic and piss weak interviewing. The government even put it on the website. They sure didn’t with this singapore-window.org/sw03/030923bc.htm

Everbody could learn a thing or two from the BBC.

Chewy

14

Blueface666, shame on you for such irresponsible fearmongering. Surely Taiwan would become a Special Administrative Region (like Hong Kong), not an Autonomous Region (like Tibet).

15

Oh yeah. Taiwan becomes like Hong Kong.

story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s … kong_china

I doubt the people would put up with it.

16

You forgot the option where Chen holds a referendum on independence, in the belief that China won’t invade during Olympic year.

17

There is also a slim possibility that Beijing will officially recognize the ROC. This idea has been floating around among mainland intellectuals for a few years, but I’ve heard it bounced around a lot more now that Chen is going to have another four years at the helm.

The deal would recongize ROC authority over Taiwan and the other islands under its current administration. The ROC would be able to have official embassies or consulates in all countries and it would keep its military. The ROC would NOT have full membership status in international organizations. In the UN, an ambassador for “China” and his entourage would represent both the PRC and ROC; in reality, the amabassador would always be a mainlander. In other organizations, the ROC would have observer status. In effect, the ROC and PRC would be members of a Chinese Federation, leaving poor Hong Kong with the lesser one country two systems deal and firmly under Beijing’s control. The PRC and ROC would set up representative offices in each other’s capitals and a figurehead federation council could be set up.

As I see it, striking this kind of deal is the only sure way that Beijing could avoid losing face both at home and abroad. I think that if the ROC were offered a deal in which it were completley equal to the PRC in their dealings with each other, many Taiwanese would go cold on Chen and any push for declaring independence. Most Taiwanese won’t care what the country is called as long as they have de facto independence.

Do I think this will happen? Absolutely not. I don’t think anyone of consequence in Beijing will ever consider this sort of deal. Considering how paranoid they are about maintaining the party-state, I don’t think they would formally acknowledge the ROC when at the same time they are so bent on crushing reform and autonomy in Hong Kong. They don’t want to co-exsist. They want to rule.

18

Beijing will never recognize the ROC, because the ROC is not a legitimate government. The ROC is a government-in-exile. See this thread on forumosa.com [ROC is a government-in-exile

19

I think Taiwan should tell China to show everybody the system they have in mind, by practicing on Hong Kong and Tibet. So once the Kong Kongers and Tibetans are happy with their place in the world, then Taiwan could join whatever system it was.

20

I guess this scenario and Jive Turkey’s scenario fall neatly into the “other” category.

Chen’s been pretty clear about not having a mandate to explicitly declare independence … although he’s been suitably vague on what’s going to be in the new constitution. I’ll grant you there is a slim chance of independence being made explicit in the consitution.

Jive T., are we talking about the same China? The China I know would not meet Taiwan halfway and allow it to have embassies in other countries – unless it was a gambit aimed at getting a negative response from Taipei, which might in turn erode Taiwan’s relationship with Beijing.

Personally, I’m optimistic that Chen’s re-election will turn around cross-strait relations … but nothing so grandiose as an explicit admission by Beijing of Taiwan’s defacto sovereignty and independence.