Taiwan four years from now

[wolf_reinhold]

Babeling one:

Personally, I’m optimistic that Chen’s re-election will turn around cross-strait relations

I admire your optimism, but there are too many hardliners in mainland China still. Trade is up and flourishing across the Strait, without direct “three links.” Any outreach at this point will be a sign of weakness on the mainland’s part, particularly if you think that in 2005 or 2006 they may settle the Taiwan question by force.

[babelfish1]

Well, I’m relatively optimistic. At least I’m not yet furnishing a bunker or putting aside extra canned goods in preparation for an eventual attack from across the strait.

[Jive_Turkey]

@Falcon

Beijing will never recognize the ROC, because the ROC is not a legitimate government. The ROC is a government-in-exile.

What? You are confusing ideology with reality. This is the same as saying that we shouldn’t call the Chinese Communist Party by its name because there is no longer any communism in China.

@babelfish

Jive T., are we talking about the same China? The China I know would not meet Taiwan halfway and allow it to have embassies in other countries

Which is precisely why I wrote:

Do I think this will happen? Absolutely not. I don’t think anyone of consequence in Beijing will ever consider this sort of deal. Considering how paranoid they are about maintaining the party-state, I don’t think they would formally acknowledge the ROC when at the same time they are so bent on crushing reform and autonomy in Hong Kong. They don’t want to co-exsist. They want to rule.

Contrary to what some may believe, mainland opinions about Taiwan vary a great deal. Yes, the majority of people turn into raving nationalists as soon as Taiwan is brought up, but there is also a significant minority who couldn’t give half a shit about Taiwan. However, these people will never have any influence on policy.

[Hobart]

[quote=“Jive Turkey”]There is also a slim possibility that Beijing will officially recognize the ROC. This idea has been floating around among mainland intellectuals for a few years, but I’ve heard it bounced around a lot more now that Chen is going to have another four years at the helm.

The deal would recongize ROC authority over Taiwan and the other islands under its current administration. The ROC would be able to have official embassies or consulates in all countries and it would keep its military. The ROC would NOT have full membership status in international organizations. In the UN, an ambassador for “China” and his entourage would represent both the PRC and ROC; in reality, the amabassador would always be a mainlander. In other organizations, the ROC would have observer status. In effect, the ROC and PRC would be members of a Chinese Federation, leaving poor Hong Kong with the lesser one country two systems deal and firmly under Beijing’s control. The PRC and ROC would set up representative offices in each other’s capitals and a figurehead federation council could be set up.[/quote]

This proposal would not give Taiwan independence, it would take it away. :raspberry: Basically this proposal would be total and utter BS. :raspberry: :raspberry: Taiwan is already INDEPENDENT and not ruled by or associated with any country in the world. The only things lacking are membership in international organizations like the UN as well as international recognition by other countries.

Goes to show you what a lack of education did to the minds of those so called Cultural revolution intellectuals.

In Taiwan only totally ignorant pig farmers with PRC brides would agree to this deal. I doubt even the KMT would agree to this! Go Fish!

[Scuba]

Immovable object vs irresistable force.

Taiwan will never accept reunification with China.
China (under the current regime) will never accept Taiwan independence.

I see this playing out in one of 3 ways over the next 30 years .

1. It will be like the rules of driving a car in the UK. A law still exists (from 1890 something) that a driver of an automobile should have a man with a red flag running in front to warn pedestrians. The car has developed to a point where the Red Flag is an irrelevance & inappropriate to the times. The law still exists but everyone ignores it & or is now even unaware of it. Taiwan has also developed beyond the point of the (other) red flag having any relevance. It will always be there but people will just ignore it & get on with thier lives.
2. Peaceful regime change/evolution in China will result in China claims on Taiwan eventually being reduced to a technicality. China will quietly stop blocking Taiwans particpation/recognition in the world.
3. Social instability in China due to severe economic issues (eg revolt of the rural masses & urban poor) or an emerging democracy movement result in the leadership deciding to unify/distract the people behind a common cause of the liberation of Taiwan & they invade despite all the reasons not to do so.

[ac_dropout]

4 years from now

1. Mayor Ma will be president. All the girls in Taiwan will be happy.

2. The NT dollar will be worthless and I will use it as toilet paper.

3. USA will be made in China. Even the missles they sell to Taiwan will be made in China.

4. HK will get over the fact they built a Disneyland in Shanghai. And finally accept the fact that they are on an island and not the center of the Chinese universe.

5. DaoiYuTai will be used for nuclear missle testing.

6. Spatley Island will be resolved. Because the Japan will create the first electric consumer car and nobody wants the oil anymore.

7. Everything on Taiwan would have gone to China to be made in China. There will be more ROC citizens in PRC, than in the ROC. It will be like Mongolia or Ireland.

[guangtou]

[quote=“ac_dropout”]4 years from now

1. Mayor Ma will be president. All the girls in Taiwan will be happy.

2. The NT dollar will be worthless and I will use it as toilet paper.

3. USA will be made in China. Even the missles they sell to Taiwan will be made in China.

4. HK will get over the fact they built a Disneyland in Shanghai. And finally accept the fact that they are on an island and not the center of the Chinese universe.

5. DaoiYuTai will be used for nuclear missle testing.

6. Spatley Island will be resolved. Because the Japan will create the first electric consumer car and nobody wants the oil anymore.

7. Everything on Taiwan would have gone to China to be made in China. There will be more ROC citizens in PRC, than in the ROC. It will be like Mongolia or Ireland.[/quote]

This seems like only yesterday…

[beebee]

All these possible scenarios will likely happen in the next 4 years:

1. Ma will lead the government.
2. CSB will be nominated for Nobel prize for creating havoc in East Asia.
3. Lee Teng Hui will migrate to Japan - he should go where he should be.
4. Half of pan-green will turn blue.
5. China will slowly participate in trial election.
6. etc…

Peace at last.

[Lord_Lucan]

@Screaming Jesus

Blueface666, shame on you for such irresponsible fearmongering. Surely Taiwan would become a Special Administrative Region (like Hong Kong), not an Autonomous Region (like Tibet).

I prefer Formosa Autonomous Region on Taiwan.

[TainanCowboy]

Worst. Poll. Ever.

[h22chen]

11 (or whatever).

Grand scale diaster (any type) in US, Japan and Taiwan, thus guaranteeing military parity.
China invades and many (or most) became refugees or indiscriminately slaughtered by angry brain-washed chinese military forces.
By the end of the conflict, no matter who won, Taiwan will be left a soldering ruin due to the result of numerous battles and slaughters on her land.
Taiwan will then be used as a bartering piece on the international table (as it always had been) with her having no say/bargaining chip (as it always had been).
Next victim!