I bought 2 * apts in Hsinchu as an investment end of 2004. :loco: I am back in UK since then so has anyone any news/views on the future for property values in Taiwan. Improved relations with China is obviously a prime factor and from what I read this is starting to happen - panda diplomacy and some direct flights. Am I flogging a dead horse ??
K.
At the end of 2004 the market had already risen for a while. Methinks you bought at or near a peak. Lets hope it keeps rising. It has not been that long. Six months maybe? By the way, relations with China are only so so and I don’t think that would move the market too much, unless something radical really happened. From what I have read Central Government policies have been moving the market such as low interest loans.
Location, Location, Location…
We bought 2 years ago, before they announced the brown line construction. At the time the average price in my complex was 6.5 million. Today the same area is selling for 8.5-10.5 million for a 36 ping place. No parking. We expext that is is going to keep going up untill 2008 when the MRT opens.
Ski
Thanks for the views.
Ski. I am assuming you are in Taipei and near a high speed terminal ( might be wrong though). In theory the new train should do the same for Hsinchu property as from memory I think it reduces the time to taipei to less than 1 hour. My flats are 5 minutes from the station and this was part of the buying decision. It will take some time for the rest of taiwan to catch the taipei wave but I feel ( hope ) things are on the move
Hobart. thanks for the link and the interest rates everywhere are historically low around the world ( with obvious exceptions ). The so called anglo saxon economies have gone and done it, the asian ones are starting e.g. Shanghai and Hong Kong so no reason why little taiwan cannot follow. From my UK experience property follows a long cycle and when they move they move for years ( up as well as down) so heres hoping!!
I lived in Taipei from 1988-1990 and saw property more than double during that time as well as the stock market - the two seem to go well together. Since then and it’s been a long time there has been no major property inflation in Taiwan ( the 1997 asian crisis put paid to the last green buds ). Lot of pent up action over the medium term methinks.
Till then at least I have some currency gains and see more to come as the currency cycle starts to turn as well.
All IMHO and LOL
Kev
As far as I know, KJCON, the trains will not actually stop at Hsinchu train station, but at a spot near Chubei, near the science park.
I live in Hsinchu and there’s nothing happening in terms of construction at Hsinchu station, although there is work at other stations in northern Taiwan, so I’m pretty sure this is the case.
As far as I know, KJCON, the trains will not actually stop at Hsinchu train station, but at a spot near Chubei, near the science park.
I live in Hsinchu and there’s nothing happening in terms of construction at Hsinchu station, although there is work at other stations in northern Taiwan, so I’m pretty sure this is the case.
DSN,
Yes the MRT will not use the old rail network or stations. But Jubei is 5 minutes from Hsinchu on the new(ish) highway 61 which is near enough I think.
Kev
Yes that is right, it will be in jubei which is quite far from hsin-chu
interesting article. I’ll settle for 50% myself.
Do they think that the three links will make it easier for Taiwan businessmen to live in Taiwan and do business in China, therefore, pushing the property prices up, as if the current downturn in prices is because so many people with money have moved to China and suddenly they will all move back if they can fly direct to China from Taiwan in just 1 hour or 1.5 hours to Shanghai for example?
Many think the opposite will happen, making it easier to live in China and since almost every Taiwan citizen already has a house in Taiwan, they will then want or need a house in China for their frequent traveling.
Finally, I donot think that the Taiwan government will be allowing full scale movement of Communist China citizens to move to purchase property in Taiwan and live here etc. That could be a security risk, but then if they allow the three links, then they might allow this. I don’t think the Communists will allow the movement of their people to Taiwan because of the Free Press and democracy here. They are afraid their citizens will get ideas no, but then they let them travel abroad now. Hmm…if all of those Chinese start moving to Taiwan…nahh…never happen.
I think the 3 Links will increase capital flight and make for a new price drop in Taiwan property prices.
I think they simply mean that once you can fly to Shanghai in the morning and back the same day one of the biggest driver to relocate is gone. Don’t know where the 50% comes from though.
Full employment, low interest rates, new infrastructure all help but at the end of the day sentiment drives house prices not logic. Anyone who has lived through the boom and bust markets in the UK or Taiwan 1988-90 ( nobody leaving for China in those days ) will know that. Just needs that feel good factor to kick in. Who can say but the so called three links might just help kickstart it.
Kev
It is so hard to play the guessing game. I’ve used books and experience to try to judge it and been wrong too often.
My latest guesstimate is to hold long term and gather more in low/ crashed markets. Boring strategy and I’d need money in the future to follow it of course.
Supply and demand.
Last Australian rise 5 years ago my X was selling properties and suddenly there were none coming up for sale as people got a taste of small price rises.
Then it shot up as they held back and demanded more and more money.
Now its slowly dropping in most markets in Australia but there are no sudden bargains. People hold unless desperate. So, it will slowly drop back and then find a level.
Taiwan? Do Taiwanese people want to live in China?
They can own property in Taiwan, they can own the house but not the property in China. (I assume that is correct)
I agree Ironman it is all a guess really and there is no quick money in it. I an looking at a 5-10 year hold taking the income as the only real certainty. I still think that this is an excellent time to get in to property though and we should see major upside over the medium term.
Actually the taiwan stock market might not be a bad thing either and I have some exposure to this as well. Spread you eggs around the various baskets is no bad thing.
Kev
In today’s Taipei Times http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2005/08/20/2003268500
Aw-aw…
Sounds like excess supply to me, considering population growth is near zero…Certainly here in Hsinchu there are whole (newish) buildings practically empty. In fact, all the hideous old hovels near the train station are being ripped down and a huge parking lot has been built in their place.
DSN lets hope they’re wrong for my sake !! :help:
In the old days - IE untill 2000-2001, people were talking about the 17% of Taiwan’s housing which were empty. The figures were based on Taipowers numbers ofr how many units where connected to the power grid. (ie if you don’t have electricity in your house you are likely to keep it empty).
While some of it has more or less fallen off the market, as it’s approaching 20 years o0f age, a fair bit of that is still there I guess.
That should take the heat off most property booms here i guess.
Also, we have had a mini boom here, In Yangmei, they have been building like crazy, with 300+ units going up around my youngest daughters kindergarden.
There’s a construction boom going on around the new high speed train station, which at least 5000+ units entering the market the last year or so, and with a few more going up there. It was green field 2-3 years ago, now it’s overbuilt around the HSR station. They ahve been a bit slower around the Teoyuan station, but that will pick up too.
should people move othe rthere, it will leave empty units in the older parts of Xinzhu/Taoyuan.
I saw a piece about house prices on the news today. Xinyi (270000 a ping), Neihu and Yonghe (200000 a ping) up by about 20% each (sorry, didn’t catch over what period). Every area in Taipei City and County had risen with the exceptions of Zhong Zheng, Xinzhuang and one other.
Briajn
Prices in Taipei have gone up - that will last till the interest rates go up as well.
Location is important, prices on the hill have risen a fair bit too.
Not very sustainable, as available income has not risen as much.
what happened in the 1997 asia crisis? I heard before that tw real estate always on a steady up…but during the crisis real estate went down a lot?
how’s tw’s real estate growth compared to other countries…is it slower or faster…I think when china says or do something everything drops in tw eh?
The Taiwanese housing boom most likely started when the ecomony took off in the 1970’s. it then really became hot during the 1980’s along with teh stock market. Investment opportunities were scarce, and banks tended to focus on policy loans and “safe” real estate.
All that came to an end in 1990, when the stock market reached 12,000 and started a big dive. That also fed thru on the real estate market, which topped then. Since then the prices have gone down, and my guess is that they bottomed out 1-2 years ago, and that they are in a mini-bubble in the northern part of Taiwan.
it might have dived a bit faster when the Asian crisis struck, but nothing really spectacular, as Taiwan was more or less shielded off from it, due to its high US it industry exposure.
However, as there are still a fair bit of supply left over from the bubble, then any meaningful rise in prices leads to people dumping their supply on the market.
At least speaking on behalf on the stock market, then well… China comes out and says something good, anything china related shoots up for 2 days, and then seeps back down, once it has been revealed that there’s not much to it. When China says something bad, or the president says something rubbing China the wrong way, then it falls for 2 days, after which it goes back up. i watched that happen for nearly 3 years while working as an anal-yst in a stock steatshop in Taipei.
I don’t think that Beijing’s day to day actions have any bearing on the housing market. After all, this market is not veyr liquid, and a flat tends to be on the market for a great deal longer time than a share. What caused the housing market to at least partly move out of the decade-long doldrums was the preferential loan scheme for new housebuyers. Basically, you can borrow a certain amount of money with an interest rate about 2.85%