Taiwan in the post-CSB era: like Hong Kong or Tibet?

[color=green] Mod’s Note: This post was split from the thread in TP entitled “Chen’s dilemma as per Koo Kuan-Min.”[/color]

post Chen, will Taiwan be Hong Kong or Tibet?

Let’s take a look at the numbers, here.

-Tibet’s 17-point agreement: 1950.
-HHDL’s insurrection and subsequent exile from Tibet: 1957.
-Establishment of the TAR: 1959.

-The reunification of Hong Kong, with the Basic Law established as constitution: 1997.

-Today: 2006.

I’m inclined to lean towards Hong Kong as a more predicative model. But absent the well-used crystal ball apparently available to other prognisticators, I’ll have to say… let’s wait a few years and see. It shouldn’t take long, now.

where is Stop Ma these days?

If Taiwan every gets forcibly re-unified, who is willing to take to the mountains of central taiwan and form a guerella bargade of resistance? i bet this will prevent the commie bastards from ever having total control. after all, taiwan has lots of mountains. “resistance against PRC” insurgency, we’re ready for you commies bastards and will bring your forces down to your knees, just like whats happening with Us forces in iraq today.

In the jungles already planning his guerrilla army ala Hizbullah, nothing’s stopping Ma now. :laughing:

Taiwan is nearly economically (re-)unified. De facto unification with China. The bleating from the DPP on Taiwanese company investments limitations is just grasping at straws. Those companies are so invested into China, there’s no turning back.

Taiwan is small. China has a few million troops (and more) to throw at Taiwan. Besides, Taiwanese people can’t fight for shit. It’s history is about being conquered and controlled by foreigners. History doesn’t lie. 15-20 years, Taiwan SARS.

I think Taiwan will be like Portlaoise but with cute girls in short skirts.

Post-Chen Taiwan will be like pre-Chen Taiwan and Taiwan now. The status quo will be maintained until a major crisis (political uprising, disastrous famine, war) hits China. Then, only the gods know what will happen after that.

In the jungles already planning his guerrilla army ala Hizbullah, nothing’s stopping Ma now. :laughing:

Taiwan is nearly economically (re-)unified. De facto unification with China. The bleating from the DPP on Taiwanese company investments limitations is just grasping at straws. Those companies are so invested into China, there’s no turning back.

Taiwan is small. China has a few million troops (and more) to throw at Taiwan. Besides, Taiwanese people can’t fight for shit. It’s history is about being conquered and controlled by foreigners. History doesn’t lie. 15-20 years, Taiwan SARS.[/quote]

[quote=“fanglangzhe”]where is Stop Ma these days?

If Taiwan every gets forcibly re-unified, who is willing to take to the mountains of central taiwan and form a guerella bargade of resistance? i bet this will prevent the commie bastards from ever having total control. after all, taiwan has lots of mountains. “resistance against PRC” insurgency, we’re ready for you commies bastards and will bring your forces down to your knees, just like whats happening with Us forces in Iraq today.[/quote]

Every binglang stand will be stationed with armed la mei. If we are unable to stop their invasion with armed resistance and scantly clad maidens, at least they will be addicted to the mild stimulant and boost our economy.

I think Chairman Ma will gradually bring Taiwan into the fold of Communist China and he will not dramatically call for unification. Too many people will protest and everyone needs time to escape to the USA and other places first including most of the China Nationalist Party members. There are still a lot of KMT members that have procrastinated and don’t have their USA passport yet. Anyway, the China Nationalism Party members want Taiwan to be taken over by China but they don’t want a PRC passport any more than others want one. The sad part will be the poor people, they will have no choice but to accept the Coming Communist BORG, also the hard core freedom fighters will most likely be killed or sent to prison just like 228 and the White Terror after the China Nationalist Party invaded Taiwan over 50 years ago.

What happens in Taiwan if all the “second wives” are able to cross the Straits looking for the fathers of their kids over here ?

Maybe I travel in the wrong circles but I never hear anyone discuss the real practical problems like the question I pose above as Taiwan and China become more close.

[quote=“mikehs”]What happens in Taiwan if all the “second wives” are able to cross the Straits looking for the fathers of their kids over here ?

Maybe I travel in the wrong circles but I never hear anyone discuss the real practical problems like the question I pose above as Taiwan and China become more close.[/quote]Hahaha, that is so funny. You are right, I have never thought of that either. Dang, you would think someone will have to put a stop to Chairman Ma’s China Nationalist Party plans to allow the CCP to take over, once they realize this serious problem that you bring up.

[quote=“fanglangzhe”]where is Stop Ma these days?

If Taiwan every gets forcibly re-unified, who is willing to take to the mountains of central taiwan and form a guerella bargade of resistance? i bet this will prevent the commie bastards from ever having total control. after all, taiwan has lots of mountains. “resistance against PRC” insurgency, we’re ready for you commies bastards and will bring your forces down to your knees, just like whats happening with Us forces in Iraq today.[/quote]

Hmmmm, Ja, ok… Personally I can’t really see that happening. Lots of rhetoric from some locals down south but I don’t think it will ever amount to much. Not because (as some seem to think) they’re spineless, but because most rational people just care about their own welfare and that of their families. It’s the same everwhere in the world.
Unlike the US in Iraq (which is an out and out military invasion with the aim of exploiting Iraqi resources despite claims to the contrary), China is not all that interested in beligerently “conquering” the island. They’re much more interested in Taiwan being part of China in name more than anything else. Once most people realise that, and furthermore that they can pretty much carry on with their lives as usual as in Hong Kong, and continue to be able to provide for their families I don’t see that there will be much resistance. Currently most people just eat up empty propaganda of a wolfish China that wants to devour a helpless Taiwan, rape the women, eat the children and spread communism to the ends of the Earth…

As to being commie bastards… IMHO that’s an obtuse assumption. The PRC may very well be an autocratic one party state (Yes, that’s only one party less than the US), but they’re so far removed economically from communism as to be laughable.

A Hong Kong type of system will probably be adopted, although IMO it may even be more loose and confederal in style. This is also pretty much what folks like Lien Shan keep harping about, and the fact that there is more to be gained from the bargaining table than from sabre rattling - on both sides.

[quote=“bismarck”]As to being commie bastards… IMHO that’s an obtuse assumption. The PRC may very well be an autocratic one party state (Yes, that’s only one party less than the US), but they’re so far removed economically from communism as to be laughable.

A Hong Kong type of system will probably be adopted, although IMO it may even be more loose and confederal in style. This is also pretty much what folks like Lien Shan keep harping about, and the fact that there is more to be gained from the bargaining table than from sabre rattling - on both sides.[/quote]Buddy who cares how much economic freedoms there are in Communist China, it is all about politics when you have to trade in your Passport for one of theirs! Would you trade in your passport for a PRC one?
Hong Kong is a fricken joke, have you seen the latest news just this week? Now, the government can legally spy on its opposition a la Nixon and Watergate, but worse, with no rule of law in China to keep it in check. China runs HK now.

[quote=“Hobart”][quote=“bismarck”]As to being commie bastards… IMHO that’s an obtuse assumption. The PRC may very well be an autocratic one party state (Yes, that’s only one party less than the US), but they’re so far removed economically from communism as to be laughable.

A Hong Kong type of system will probably be adopted, although IMO it may even be more loose and confederal in style. This is also pretty much what folks like Lien Shan keep harping about, and the fact that there is more to be gained from the bargaining table than from sabre rattling - on both sides.[/quote]Buddy who cares how much economic freedoms there are in Communist China, it is all about politics when you have to trade in your Passport for one of theirs! Would you trade in your passport for a PRC one?
Hong Kong is a fricken joke, have you seen the latest news just this week? Now, the government can legally spy on its opposition a la Nixon and Watergate, but worse, with no rule of law in China to keep it in check. China runs HK now.[/quote]

Hobart, China is supposed to “run” HK. This is the case since 1996, right? But HK also never had the opportunity to go to a bargaining table and get a different deal with more or less autonomy within a federal or confederal framework. Basically HK was a “lease” colony of the Empire which has all but been defunct since Indian (and Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Sri Lankan) independence. And yes, even if Taiwan does secure some sort of autonomous deal with the PRC the PRC will no doubt wish, in future, to secure a greater centralised hold on the island regardless of what was previously agreed upon. And that’s not because they’re Commie bastards, but because they’re human and that’s the nature of states and statal relations. And the more the area is worth the more they’ll wish to control it.

As to trading in my passport for a PRC one. I’ll never trade in my passport for any country (including the US) unless I’m able to retain dual citizenship.

But comparing Taiwan’s democracy to PRC communism, they do seem light years ahead in promoting stability and ensuring their population can prosper.

Taiwan is hardly the USA in terms of political maturity. Taiwan isn’t even the PRC in terms of political maturity. And people can see that.

You guys joke about the elites on Taiwan with dual citizenship. But not everyone has dual citizenship. Not to mention those other countries are not writing blank checks to help Taiwan in any real sense.

I’m willing to agree with that, although it’s one thing managing the prosperity of 22 million people and 1.2 to 1.5 billion people. Come to that, even the US has problems regarding this with 300 million people as is evident in the ever growing gap between the super rich (of which the US has the lion’s share in the world) and rich and the (if not poor) lower middle class. In fact relatively few countries enjoy little or no disparity wrt income levels and wealth and managing this (even for a small country is a nightmare.

But then again, I’m also basing my assumptions (because that’s all they are - as is any form of political forecasting) on the all but inevitable unification between Taiwan and the PRC. All I’m really saying is that it probably wont be as bad as the DPP would have us believe. But yes, there will be changes, and probably many that will be non too good either.

I guess my concern would be the people on the dark political green shade on Taiwan. What kind of outlet would the PRC-ROC come up with to allow these people to vent in a non-destructive manner, while Taiwan leans toward a more “unification” oriented policy.

I would suspect most of the dark greens would accept reality and move on with life, however, there are die-hards where no amount of real progress would convince them that Taiwan is on the right track.

As long as their basic civil liberty can be guarantee in the “unification” oriented ROC within PRC sphere of influence, would put many people minds at ease.

That is the million dollar question. Probably no ideal solution would ever be able to be agreed upon to make everyone happy, especially the real independence die hards…

Such is the story of Taiwan. Even back in the day of Dutch and Spanish colonial experiments on the island the die hards never gave up and many were slaughtered and forced into the mountains as a result (although this was limited to the direct areas of colonial occupation, which in itself was severly limited). Also a trend experienced to a greater or lesser degree wrt to Chinese and later Japanese occupation.

Which would be something to work towards. Something definitely not attainable at the end of a gun.

Unfortunately the situation here is very much that of being between a rock and a hard place. No easy solution. In a perfect world it would be possible for Taiwan to peaceably attain complete independence and International recognition. Unfortunately it’s not a prefect world, and the powers that be should try to achieve the best compromise possible. Presently the best possible solution is still just to wait them out and see what happens.

I don’t really think that there would be too much in the sense of “slaughter and drive them into the mountain” campaigns going on. Unless Taiwan plunges into total anarchy of a military war, how is one suppose to conduct wholesale slaughter in the conjested streets of Taiwan. Not to mention the mountains are full of gated communities and cementary for rich and famous.

To hide among the corpes of the rich seems somewhat desperate, although their graves look kind of plush from afar.

If one reads the recently declassified ramblings of Nixion and Chou, it becomes clear this has been the plan since the switch of recognition 3 decades ago.

So what the hell are you? A fortuneteller? An insider with mystical psychic abilities?!!

What is this garbage about trading in passports, death and destruction?

No wonder TI is such a lost cause…