Taiwan: independence/(re)unification/status quo/referendum?


When faced with a large and dangerous creature, it’s prudent to avoid sudden moves.

It is not, however, prudent to avoid all moves whatsoever.


Peger, I’d agree that HHC is steering the KMT in a surprising direction. Her comments during the campaign and subsequent actions seem to be signifying a New Blue (Deep Blue) direction that seems at odds with my sense of the Taiwanese majority desire for the status quo.

What I mean about the Blues winning the ideological battle was a reference to the more moderate LTH and earlier MYJ views which seemed basically oriented towards preserving Taiwan as culturally and historically Chinese society that kept Mandarin as its national language, saw itself as the modern inheritor of the ROC’s older claims, venerated ROC symbolism and saw China as the fountain from which its civilization sprang (I’ll call this as Middle Blue as opposed to HHC’s New Blue or CKS’ Old Blue dream of Reconquest) Which isn’t to say that TIW has bought into this completely (the apology to the aboriginals seems to be a de-Sinicizing element). Moreover, I’d agree with your comment that many aspects of the ROC have been “co-opted” to some extent. But the very fact that modern TI now seems to be about preserving ROC sovereignty rather than establishing a true ROT is the Middle Blue ideological victory.

I think TIW is wise not to fight too many ideological or symbolic battles that would burn up her capital, pointlessly worry China and give the KMT hammers to beat her with. But I can imagine that it may be frustrating to some Deep Greens to have a DPP executive legislative and municipal victory but see little tangible difference (it is early still admittedly).


Another indicator that I could be wrong about the Blues winning the ideological victory is the following recent poll which notes that 49% of Taiwanese favor independence. More than those who favor Unification or Status Quo combined.

Given that the same poll shows a material drop in TIW’s approval rates, one might wonder if her approval is going down because she is being too accommodating to the PRC arather than insufficiently so . . . [quote=“Bu_Lai_En, post:1, topic:15738, full:true”]
Taiwan: independence/reunification or…

  • Taiwan is a province of China, whose legitimate government is the PRC, and should reunify as soon as possible.
  • Taiwan part of China, but the PRC are usurpers. The ROC should reconquer the Mainland.
  • Taiwan should unify with China once China reforms to become a free democratic country.
  • Taiwan should negotiate with China to have a close relationship, but with as many freedoms as can be agreed upon.
  • Taiwan should seek to maintain the status quo as long as possible.
  • Taiwan is effectively independent, but China prevents this from being formalised. Taiwan should try to slowly and carefully move towards de jure independence.
  • Taiwan should declare independence now.
  • Taiwan should bide its time until the circumstances allow for a referendum for Taiwanese to determine their future.

0 voters

This topic comes up a lot on this forum.

Most recently we’ve been discussing it in [url=http://tw.forumosa.com/t/taiwan-independence-reunification-self-determination/2146/1 thread[/url]. But that thread was started in 2002. Things have changed, as have peoples’ opinions. Also that thread was going well off-topic.

And [url=http://tw.forumosa.com/t/dpp-and-independence/15426/1 one[/url] discusses the independence policy of the DPP.

I think it will be interesting to discuss the wider possibilities than a simple independence vs unfication scenraio. What are the other options?

If you don’t like the idea of unification with China, is that just becuase China is a communist country? What if China reformed and became democratic. Would you then like Taiwan to unify with China, maybe 30 years down the line? Personally, I’d like to see Taiwan remain independent even then, but think that it would have to be up to the people of Taiwan to vote in a free poll. Or should the people of China also get a say?

If you support Taiwan Independence (TI), do you think Taiwan should declare independence now? Or do you think the threat of China attacking is real and not to be ignored? If these are your reasons for opposing TI, would you like to see Taiwan independent if the situation changed and there would be no repurcussions? That’s my view - independence when possible, but folly to declare it now.

So, I’ve revamped the poll. Results of the previous poll were:
Which do you support?
Taiwan Independence: 29% (23)
Reunification with the Mainland: 13% (11)
Self-determination (No matter what the outcome): 56% (45)


So it seems to me that the DPP position is that Taiwan is a sovereign nation whose official name is the ROC, where the ROC does not rule the mainland. And the Blue position may be that Taiwan is a province of a sovereign nation whose official name is the ROC, where the ROC does not rule the mainland. While I understand the distinction, the difference seems rather subtle. Moreover, when one considers the facts that the ROC will never replace the PRC as the government of China, and that Taiwan “Province” constitutes 99.9% of the ROC - the variance in viewpoints seems almost academic at best.


And what’s worse than academic? A political crisis.

But you can only kick the can down the road for so long. A political crisis can be healthy, if it helps get things resolved.

Time to stop pretending we all agree?


I get where you are coming from, Rowland. My issue now is that I am having a hard time understanding the meaningful difference between the Light Green and Light Blue views (which I believe would collectively make up the majority of the Taiwanese electorate). One could accept your statement that it is time to stop pretending that we all agree and still not know where the real disagreement is. I recognize that I don’t live in Taiwan and thus may not be sufficiently keyed in to sentiments there to have a sufficient appreciation of the distinction in such views. . .


I don’t think it’s that complicated. 90% of Taiwanese if there were no threat from China would choose independence. The remaining 10% or so are your deep blues. On the other side, there is about the same amount of deep greens that would go to war for independence. You can argue the numbers a little, 15 or pushing it 20% either side with a bit more on the green side.

In between are your light greens and light blues, which as you note make up the majority. People who just want to get on with their lives, send their kids to school, go to work and not be bothered by all this. The light blues think acquiescence to China on the subject of the '92 consensus is wise, the light greens do not.

With regards to China and there are other issues that separate the greens and blues, as far as light green vs light blue is concerned with regards China, that’s it.


The original OP’s poll was conducted in 2005. I wonder if the results would be any different today. Many recent posters on other threads recently seem to hold the view that its at least possible that Taiwan will be ‘assimilated’ or have ‘political accommodation’ with PRC in the future. The proportion of Forumosans who are TI supporters (to be more accurate, those who think it will happen) although still substantial seems to be declining compared to 10-15 years ago.


That’s an odd definition of supporter.

You can support something but not expect it to happen, a la Boris Johnson. You can oppose something even though you think it’s inevitable.

You can also have an opinion but choose not to share it on the interwebs, which just might be more common now than 13 years ago. :2cents:


Fair enough. I still maintain that the proportion who thought TI will happen (at least based on what they posted on this forum) was substantially higher 10-15 years ago than it is now. Your last point is interesting. Many people who thought TI was not realistic 10-15 years ago probably didn’t want to post on this forum because they would immediately get many hostile/angry replies (and the few who did post such views did get such replies). That hostility doesn’t happen as much now either.