Taiwan Independence: Realistically, how?

Politics Taiwan Politics
61

Taiwan doesn’t need to develop nuclear weapons of it’s own, just a means of hitting nuclear power stations on Chinas coast. But this as a direct threat would obviously be risky for the Taiwanese to pursue apart from the radiation possibly coming across the strait and the Chinese retaliating with Taiwan’s reactors.

There are other ideas for WMD that could be pursued but it’s probably best to stop there.

Fighting this as a war is not going to go well for Taiwan whatever the result.
Anyway Taiwan is already independent, why does it need to fight a war to get the official status , that would be a really dumb move.

62

We were on high alert in '96 as well. Don’t recall any talk of retaking the mainland at the time, however.[/quote] Don’t know where you were stationed but he was on the very ‘front line’ so to speak. And I really don’t know that they phrased it as ‘taking back the Mainland’ but according to him they were waiting for the order to sail for the mainland (he said he was discussing with his friend what they should do if the order actually did come down…). Not sure why else you would be on high alert in Taiwan when there was a disturbance going on way over in Beijing. It’s not like it was an opportune time for the mainland to invade Taiwan.

63

[quote=“Dog’s_Breakfast”]I think you are correct that a big crisis in China presents the only real opportunity to declare independence. Also agree that the 1989 Tiananmen and 1996 missile crises were the two points in time when Taiwan might have made the move to independence, but could not muster the courage to go through with it. I’m not sure if/when those opportunities will present themselves again.

As to what China would actually do if Taiwan went ahead and made a declaration of independence, I don’t think it would result in an immediate military invasion. China doesn’t really want to take over a glowing pile of ashes. I think China’s first response would be some sort economic embargo, perhaps followed by a military blockage of Taiwan’s seaports if the newly-declared ROT government doesn’t capitulate. Wealthy Taiwanese could be expected to panic, grabbing all the cash they can and heading for safe havens in Canada, the USA and Europe. Ditto for most of the vocal TI-supporting foreigners here on Forumosa, who would grab their money and head home, all the while telling the Taiwanese to “be brave” and “fight the good fight.” Charles Hong, professional letter-writer for the Taipei Times, would (from his safe haven in Columbus, Ohio) be telling the Taiwanese to “never surrender.”

Taiwan’s economy would tank. Cutting off food imports would create a crisis. Plus without imports of coal, oil and natural gas, we’d soon be seeing an energy crisis as well. Hydro-electric could supply max 5% of Taiwan’s needs, and nukes (if the new DPP government hasn’t shut them down yet) about 20%, but with 75% currently running on fossil fuels, we’d have major blackouts. Transport fuel would be gone. Deprived of gasoline and diesel fuel, Taiwan’s farmers would have a hard time getting domestically-raised food to market. The cities would starve. If that wasn’t enough to force Taiwan to surrender, China could lob a missile into a city with very minor explosives - hit the World Trade Center or Taipei 101, and cause widespread panic even without any great loss of life. I can’t imagine that the Taiwanese would hold up under this kind of pressure.

Would the USA come riding to the rescue? I sincerely doubt it. Many are assuming that China is getting ready to collapse any day now. I’m less convinced. Indeed, I think it’s more likely that the USA will collapse first.[/quote]

I totally agree with this well thought out analysis. :bravo:

64

Much of this is well thought out. But the idea that the US , with it’s solid and established functioning political and democratic system, will collapse before China with it’s awesome mountain of corruption and inequality and remaining 100s of millions of people on the breadline is hardly worth responding to.

65

Unless you’re pro-China.

66

[quote=“Hartzell”]Why don’t you look at the historical and legal record? In particular, the situations of the Philippines and Cuba are very illustrative of THE ONLY METHOD whereby Taiwan can move in the direction of de-jure independence.

The following is a simplified scenario. Many of the details have been left out at this point.

Philippines, Cuba, and Taiwan: All were/are territories conquered by US military forces during wartime. Hence, the US has military jurisdiction. Such jurisdiction is conducted under military government. In the San Francisco Peace Treaty (SFPT) of 1952, the United States Military Government was given disposition rights over the Japanese property of Taiwan territory. That is Article 4(b), which is bolstered by the specification of the USA as “the principal occupying power” in Article 23(a).

Unlike the Article 3 territory of the Ryukyus, Taiwan was not later elevated to the status of UN trusteeship. Hence, according to the terms of the SFPT, Taiwan is still under military occupation. For all the technical details, and relevant treaty clauses, and why the military occupation of Taiwan cannot be interpreted to have ended yet . . . . . etc. See – taiwanbasic.com/key/

Today, “Taiwan” is a geographic term, it is not the name of a country. Jurisdiction over Taiwan is held by the USMG as the principal occupying power, and Taiwan forms an “independent customs territory” under USMG. The ROC is also serving as “agent” for the USA in the continuing military occupation of Taiwan, while at the same time being a government in exile on Taiwanese soil. Taiwan does not belong to China. The “One China Policy” says that the PRC is the sole legitimate government of China. That is all that it says. Taiwan/ROC cannot enter the UN because it is not a country. (The various elements of fact and logic here are very well interconnected.)

With the above elements in mind, then you can turn to the situations of Philippines and Cuba. Having been conquered by US military forces, each one was under direct USMG jurisdiction for a period of time before convincing the US Executive Branch to grant it independence. Taiwan must follow a similar path. Taiwan must have a period of direct USMG jurisdiction before it can move in the path of independence.

Hence, the path is clear. It begins with demands that, under the Senate-ratified SFPT, the USA should handle the military occupation of Taiwan directly. The delegation of the administrative authority to the Chinese Nationalists should be ended.

Then of course the native Taiwanese people can come together to form their own civil government. A citizenship law needs to be promulgated. (This is exactly the way that the Philipines and Cuba proceeded.) Since the ROC government in exile is in Taiwan, there will have to be an interim period. US miitary troops will be needed to assure a peaceful transfer of power to “Taiwan citizens.”

[color=#FF40FF]
The following individuals are defined as Taiwan citizens:

  • Upon the signing of the surrender documents by the Japanese Emperor on September 2, 1945, all people of Taiwan bearing household registration in Japanese-governed Taiwan and their descendants continuing to possess household registration in Taiwan up to the present are defined as Taiwan citizens, also called: (original) people of Taiwan.
  • Any individual acquiring Taiwan citizenship under the other provisions of this Act.
  • Descendants of the Taiwan citizens having household registration in the region of Taiwan as defined in the foregoing clauses 1 and 2 are defined as Taiwan citizens.
    Upon reaching the age of eighteen, a Taiwan citizen is entitled to various citizenship rights such as voting in an election, impeachment, referendum, etc.
    [/color]

[ twdata.net/citizenship.htm ]

It may be five or ten years until some level of local stability is reached. Negotiations with US government officials for a timetable for “Taiwan independence” can only begin at that stage.[/quote]

This is all just mental masturbation unless you can convince the people on the mainland to agree with all the terms of the sfpt and of US senate ratified laws.

67

Just because you don’t like China (and I don’t like it either) doesn’t mean they aren’t going to outlast the USA. Good guys don’t always win. China has become, more or less, the world’s factory, while the USA has lost most of its manufacturing, and now software has gone to India. Americans have a hard time accepting just how indebted USA has become (number 1 in the world). The state and local governments are going broke too. And how the country has become overwhelmingly corrupted by Wall Street banksters who have stolen more money (on paper) than actually exists in the world. You can get away with living off your former reputation for “financial innovation” for just so long before the cold-hearted reality of a Ponzi scheme rears its ugly head. And the history of Ponzi finance indicates that when it unravels, it happens very fast.

Keep your eye on the BRICS. If I were still a young guy, that’s where I’d be staking my future. But now I’m old enough that I don’t have to care. I feel sorry for all my younger friends and relatives back in America who think that when they get their college degree in Business Management, there will be a job waiting for them. Hope they know how to husk corn while trying to pay off the student loan.

My friends, the axe, it is a’coming. It is swift. It is sharp. And it brooks no rationalization, no specious justification. It will come as you stand by your pie charts and calipers with laser pointer in hand. It will whistle through the air in the middle of your tired Powerpoint.

  • Cherenko
68

Software has not gone to India, the US still leads the world especially in software.
The US is also still one of the worlds biggest manufacturing countries.
The US also has the worlds leading education centers and a diverse cultural base to draw on.
The US still attracts talented people from all over the world to work there.
The US also has good demographics with a growing population.
The US has also vastly improved it’s energy supply situation.
The US has excellent agricultural resources to feeds it growing population.

China is obviously growing into a world power as we speak but it also huge internal issues that it needs to face. Corruption, environmental degradation, unstable political system, large pockets of poverty, demographic deficit, huge inequality and movement of funds offshore , lack of ability to really push technological frontiers etc. It has not really made many friends culturally or politically either.

It just doesn’t make sense to say the US will be superseded by China anytime soon.

69

Just because you don’t like China (and I don’t like it either) doesn’t mean they aren’t going to outlast the USA. Good guys don’t always win. China has become, more or less, the world’s factory, while the USA has lost most of its manufacturing, and now software has gone to India. Americans have a hard time accepting just how indebted USA has become (number 1 in the world). The state and local governments are going broke too. And how the country has become overwhelmingly corrupted by Wall Street banksters who have stolen more money (on paper) than actually exists in the world. You can get away with living off your former reputation for “financial innovation” for just so long before the cold-hearted reality of a Ponzi scheme rears its ugly head. And the history of Ponzi finance indicates that when it unravels, it happens very fast.

Keep your eye on the BRICS. If I were still a young guy, that’s where I’d be staking my future. But now I’m old enough that I don’t have to care. I feel sorry for all my younger friends and relatives back in America who think that when they get their college degree in Business Management, there will be a job waiting for them. Hope they know how to husk corn while trying to pay off the student loan.[/quote] You are aligned with those locals who think that the China will rise to dominate the world while the west recedes back into the Dark Ages. You must be old enough to recall when Japan’s economy was skyrocketing into prominence and everyone was scrambling to learn Japanese to ride the wave of the future. That was, of course, until the bubble burst and the exchange rate of the yen went crazy.

I remember more than 10 years ago when some Taiwan university students said to me half-jokingly that, “This will be the century of China so we won’t have to study English much longer”. Well, certainly there is an ever-increasing number of Chinese students out there but I don’t think English has become any less prominent.

Anyway, why not listen to an extremely interesting discussions about this topic debated by experts on the subject and see what they have to say:
http://intelligencesquaredus.org/index.php/past-debates/china-does-capitalism-better-than-america/

70

Back to the topic at hand (chances of Taiwan independence), it does seem that barring a total collapse of China, de jure Taiwan independence has the same chance of happening as pigs growing wings and flying. Yet, this is something that the DPP party just can not face. DPP will collapse if they give up the cause of de jure independence.

71

Yet the status quo, fragile and eroding as it is, is 95% of the way towards de jure independence, isn’t it? So why is the last mile so hard?

because China is a big arrogant and, most importantly, increasingly confident bully.

72

[quote=“urodacus”]Yet the status quo, fragile and eroding as it is, is 95% of the way towards de jure independence, isn’t it? So why is the last mile so hard?

because China is a big arrogant and, most importantly, increasingly confident bully.[/quote]

Yes, that’s the reality. You can either live with it or fight it and die a martyr. But who is willing to sacrifice their lives for de jure Taiwan independence?

I see one of 2 scenarios:

  1. China collapses and Taiwan declares de jure independence without a fight.
    OR
  2. China’s position in the world becomes even stronger than today, and some sort of permanent political solution with Taiwan is reached that basically means unification.
73

So, looks like we’re all in total agreement.

Let’s agitate for the total collapse of China then… Balkanisation, anyone? Ethnic uprisings? Covert shipments of small arms to the uighurs and lamaseries? Pandas with frikkin lasers on their heads? Or just go for the totally sublime and release a virus that genetically modifies all Chinese first born sons into jelly rolls with a variety of intersting creamy centers.

Oh, wait, that’s already been done.

74

China’s collapse would be horrendous for hundreds of millions of people. Not a positive scenario on the horizon.

I agree only with a situation that is beneficial to both the people of Taiwan and China. The governments can go to hell.

75

China is not going to collapse into fiefdoms again, but it could one day undergo a political revolution although my bet is a generally slow and steady change similar to the KMT although I think it is waiting for a leader there to lead change from the front, so far nobody is willing or able to put their balls on the line.

Taiwan declaring independence would just be a perfect excuse for the PLA to take over a fractured China.

Things can only be adequately settled politically and peacefully.

76

Yes, that’s the reality. You can either live with it or fight it and die a martyr. But who is willing to sacrifice their lives for de jure Taiwan independence?
I see one of 2 scenarios:

  1. China collapses and Taiwan declares de jure independence without a fight.
    OR
  2. China’s position in the world becomes even stronger than today, and some sort of permanent political solution with Taiwan is reached that basically means unification.[/quote] Well, call it what you want but “unification” can take many forms. Of course, everybody knows that barring extreme circumstances Taiwan is not going to be an independent country that joins the UN any time soon. So, if negotiations are inevitable and the DPP toned down their position a notch or two from outright independence it would probably have a lot of popular support and be a viable alternative to the KMT’s position which is a gray area something like “Taiwan is either a province or an area of China and the issue at hand is deciding how to integrate and share the governance”.
77

In the last year, the Europeans have gone to China to raise money, hoping that China would bail them out. (China turned them down.) The verdict is still out on how much saving Europe will need.

The US government debt rating was downgraded due to debt concerns. Without China continuing to be the largest buyer of US government bonds, US debt financing costs might rise.

I don’t think the major western powers really believe they can call all the shots in the same way they did even 5 years ago. You can’t tell China what to do in one breath, and then go desperately begging them for money in the next.

The status quo in Taiwan looks solid for now, but I also don’t see China going anywhere either.

78

Agree, but it will take a political genius from the DPP to renounce any aim of de jure independence and offer an alternative different from the KMT. And to do so such that the new votes they gain (from KMT or middle of the road voters) offsets or even exceeds the DPP votes they will lose as a result.

79

The DPP are dumb, they should build a powerful base across all segments in Taiwan first and bring people with them slowly, they always shoot themselves in the foot by going back to core green supporters.

80

If the DPP was smart enough to do something smart - or at least not dumb, which is unlikely, they could pick up some KMT or swing votes. However, I don’t know how many votes they would actually lose by giving up the independence platform. Maybe some would move to the TSU or a new extreme splinter party would form. But they would still likely support the DPP in general elections.