Going back to the original topic a bit –
If China and Japan somehow start a war over the islands, does this create an opening for Taiwan to declare independence? What would be the circumstances required? (e.g., US drawn in, fleet presence near Taiwan).
I think my previous point, that first Taiwan needs internal consensus, still holds. But let’s just say we have that.
[quote=“BAH”]Going back to the original topic a bit –
If China and Japan somehow start a war over the islands, does this create an opening for Taiwan to declare independence? What would be the circumstances required? (e.g., US drawn in, fleet presence near Taiwan).
I think my previous point, that first Taiwan needs internal consensus, still holds. But let’s just say we have that.[/quote]
It always baffles me that in 99.9% of the TI discussions, the two most pragmatic and the most core aspect of TI are rarely brought up:
What are the requirements for de jure independence as currently practiced under international law? To be recognized as a sovereign state de jure, under the current practice of international law, there needs to be constitutive recognition; in other words, being recognized by other countries. And for those familiar with the games of international politics, “other countries” means “the big powers.” In Taiwan’s case, there won’t be any constitutive recognition; even when an internal consensus is reached, at best the sovereignty is only declarative.
Think about how Israel became a state and who were the first UN member states to recognize Israel as a state.
Forget Treaty of San Francisco. Resolution 2758 is the document that TI supporters need to battle with. UN membership is the epitome of the constitutive recognition of statehood.
Any talk about independence is pipe dreams and 嘴砲, unless the TI supporters can come up with a solid, practical and executable plan for Taiwan to: A) achieve constitutive recognition (basically, all Taiwan needs for this part is recognition from the five UN permanent members except PRC, plus members of the G8 that aren’t UN permanent members, and some other politically/economically important countries, then she is pretty much all set); and B) repeal Resolution 2758. Good luck on this, really.
There are much more challenging domestic issues threatening Taiwan’s survival and well-being as a country. The country cannot 攘外, before it can 安內 (achieve internal security).
And no, PRC mainland won’t be bombing and invading Taiwan and its territories. What’s the use of Taiwan to PRC as a war wreckage? (well maybe access to more blue water ocean) Unless of course, if the Ma administration decides to go forward with the unsafe Nuclear Plant 4 building plan, and if anything like Fukushima happens (God forbid!), then maybe Beijing will give up Taiwan voluntarily.
There’s no way Taiwan could openly declare independence without a massive change in the current power structure of China vs the world, or if they wrecked Taiwan or Japan and therefore Taiwan was ‘justified’ Kosovo like to declare independence openly and get support.
Yes, I agree. This Senkaku / Diaoyu dispute, even if it escalates into a war, is probably not enough of a “massive change.” I think world perceptions are quite important, which I why I say Tiananmen Square was probably the last time a declaration of independence was somewhat feasible.
What I’m arguing for is even if another Tiananmen happens, unless there’s internal consensus, that the opportunity would go to waste.
The whole discussion on TI on Forumosa seems to have gotten more realistic and balanced vs 5 or 10 years ago. Back then, the posts were almost nothing but the idea that TI must be achieved at any cost and how dare anyone question it. What the heck happened to these people? They changed their minds, have left Taiwan, are no longer posting on this site?
What about a massive change in the power structure within China itself? Like the country turning democratic and the governing party renouncing goal of unifying Taiwan as their people (Mainland Chinese) just don’t care about the issue. Some would argue this is a potential long term scenario.
It’s just a reflection of the general maturing of expectations, the greens got some power but didn’t really know what to do with it. Also the lack of interest among the Taiwanese population as a whole in this issue rubs off.
[quote=“fanglangzhe”]
What about a massive change in the power structure within China itself? Like the country turning democratic and the governing party renouncing goal of unifying Taiwan as their people (Mainland Chinese) just don’t care about the issue. Some would argue this is a potential long term scenario.[/quote]
Of course, and in that case Taiwan would (rightly) think seriously about unification.
But I would say this is far less likely than the “China f*cking up” scenario, at least within the next generation (seeing how most young people past the age of reason still believe with rabidness that Taiwan is a part of China).
Interesting observation. Perhaps two terms of Mr Ma has given them pause?
Interesting observation. Perhaps two terms of Mr Ma has given them pause?[/quote]
Sure, but Ma’s administration hasn’t exactly been great, with record low approval rating currently (13%?). Just because KMT won the last 2 Presidential elections does not mean the fervent TI supporters who post on Forumosa should become more quiet. And yet they have.
It’s more disillusionment with all politicians and the realization that there is no real pathway to independence and that Taiwan has more important things to worry about, that goes for me anyway.
Interesting observation. Perhaps two terms of Mr Ma has given them pause?[/quote]
Sure, but Ma’s administration hasn’t exactly been great, with record low approval rating currently (13%?). Just because KMT won the last 2 Presidential elections does not mean the fervent TI supporters who post on Forumosa should become more quiet. And yet they have.[/quote]
Approval ratings mean nothing. That should be obvious by now. They mean nothing either positively or negatively. People vote along party lines. That’s the reality. Swing independent voters are vanishingly small.
I am not so argumentative these days because one, no one but the trolls argue for unification, and their arguments have been trashed repeatedly. Two, the Taiwanese don’t really seem to care so I am not about to fight their battles for them. There was a time I thought to stay here for good and become a citizen but that time is gone. So while I hope for the best it is really not my fight anymore.
I’ll say too that a big reason for not wanting to stay long term is the fact I see a KMT majority for the long term and that means this place will never be sorted out politically, legally and environmentally. If the Taiwanese want to keep voting for a lower standard of living then god bless them they can, but I am not sticking around to live with the literal fallout (of pm2.5 and other nasty shit).
So you’re saying that Taiwan voters don’t know or actually vote against their own best interests? And does that also mean their best interests always lie with the DPP?
Yes.
Taiwan is already independent
Taiwan is already independent
He must be Chinese, everybody knows repeating something makes it so!
Interesting observation. Perhaps two terms of Mr Ma has given them pause?[/quote]
Sure, but Ma’s administration hasn’t exactly been great, with record low approval rating currently (13%?). Just because KMT won the last 2 Presidential elections does not mean the fervent TI supporters who post on Forumosa should become more quiet. And yet they have.[/quote] What’s your point? Are you doing a victory lap and giving the TI’ers a good dose of “I told you so”? Please… Try and get over yourself.
As I recall, during A-Bian’s presidency the so-called TI’ers were mostly a backlash to all the pro-unification advocates that were posting incessantly on this site. After Ma got elected the hard core pro-unification posters pretty much evaporated - save for a straggler here and there. And with their exit the TI’ers disappeared or moved on to other topics - such as Ma’s policies and approval ratings. There used to be a lively debate, to say the least, on this forum. Now it’s downright boring…
Interesting, I did not realize the forum was dominated by pro-unification views prior to 2000 or during the early years of the Chen admin. I thought foreigners in Taiwan (or the ones who post on internet forums like this one) have always hated the KMT and wanted to see de jure independence for Taiwan.
you’re right on one thing, the debates on TI (pro and against) have gotten alot quieter/boring over the last few years.
Well anyone would get bored with it after 8 years of it under the greens and no change. So many other things to deal with economically, socially and environmentally.