This is yet another meaningless statement. In case you missed it, it’s the 21st fucking century. Computer chips have been kinda important for a long time now and I think it’s pretty clear they’re not getting less important. Where would the worlds largest economy be if it wasn’t focusing on increasing domestic chip production. And I have literally no idea what “never go full Ukranian” is supposed to mean in this context. Ukraine hardly has any domestic industries which make it indispensable as an ally, and yet it’s allies are (by and large) sticking to it’s defense… Idk what your hard-on for shitting on Ukraine for defending it’s own territory is, but you’re oddly happy to use them as a by-word for being ‘retarded’ with regards to defending soverign territory.
The least Clausewitzian war goal perhaps ever proposed. So basically you’re saying they should just bomb the fuck out of Taiwan’s already relatively meager and few military targets, and then just leave it at that and occasionally throw a missle over the straits whenever it suits them? What on earth does that acheive but to ruin any potential for the West being caught somewhat off-guard for the war? Basically, that would be like a big gleaming invitation for the West to come to Taiwan’s defense, and China definitely doesn’t want that. The most realistic way of fighting this war would be a fait accompli tactical bombardment/invasion; what you’re proposing would be like… Vietnam. They’ve got bases in Cambodia and above the imaginary line you’re not permitted to cross, so instead of actually fighting them you just waste a ton of money randomly shelling them in the hopes that it’ll lead to some sort of submission. And as I’ve already said, and as you’d know if you read any analysis of military theory regarding strategic bombing, it doesn’t really work. And it really, really doesn’t work when applied in this manner:
And the difference between Vietnam and Taiwan is that the Chinese don’t just want to hold the line where it is, they want to take the ‘north’. So totally destroying it and ruining all the human capital in it by Agent Orange-ing it ‘into oblivion’ is totally senseless. And spending all that money and effort and muniton to neither gain control over the island nor to gain access to it’s industries is somehow even more senseless.
In depends. If it seems advantageous, I wouldn’t like to bet on them being soft-hearted about it.
Sure. Slow and steady, wait for an opportunity. Taiwan isn’t going anywhere. I don’t think 2024 will be so significant.
Who knows? They aren’t close yet, but they are working on it. They have their own huge problems. Not now or soon but I wouldn’t like to guess about 10 or 20 years down the road, too much. A lot depends on the will and capabilities of Taiwan’s allies.
The reason for just bombin Taiwan would come from a red line they broke, and China’s red line would be something that directly threatens their national security.
Bombing Taiwan will achieve to resolve that issue, and China can continue to exert pressure on Taiwan until they negotiate a settlement, otherwise they will turn them into a failed bumper state like Russia is doing to Ukraine.
If we can’t have it, no one will sort of thing.
Ofcourse this doesn’t suit anyone except America. I doubt America will jump into the fight. They still officially see Taiwan as part of China.
America will destabalize China by getting them into a conflict, then they can villanize China to other satalite nations and start selling weapons to those countries, since Taiwan will no longer be an option at this point.
America also takes a competitor out in Taiwan. And lots of other things, which are somewhat dependent on how many places buy into America’s BS and how many puppet leaders they were able to instal with regime changes and coups.
As far as I know America’s statement on Taiwan has remained this:
"The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.” With this Second Joint Communiqué of the U.S. and China, issued on January 1, 1979, the Carter Administration no longer recognized Taiwan as a sovereign state, but rather preserved the “cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.” The U.S. embassy there was abolished and its place the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) was established
I said officially recognize, not what some politician said to the cameras. America’s OFFICIAL position is that Taiwan is part of China, so whatever someone says means absolute zero when it matters because it can always be walked back.
I’m guessing they want people in Taiwan to decide willingly to join with China again. Maybe do it in stages, maybe form stronger ties.
Like it or not Taiwanese people have a history of thousands of years and not hundreds, no matter how much propaganda tries to make them forget that history to create annonimity and separation.
Exactly the same thing as Russia and Ukraine by the way, but this is the typical American and colonial playbook.
Then show me when their position changed. When was it officially changed to recognise Taiwan. Stop saying it isn’t and actually provide evidence of the change.
Yeah, but after what happened in Hong Kong that is unlikely to happen. Best thing for everyone is they keep trying this route. Definitely that is what I hope.
That thousands of years was independent of China, was only a Qing colony for the hundreds (barely over 200 years as a Qing colony)
My bad