One of the most troubling facts of the the Wars in the Persian Gulf is that Iraq’s military is far superior to Taiwan’s. If Taiwan waits too much longer to upgrade it military, it will be too late.
Every armament upgrade Taiwan has made has been successfully countered by PL A. The only upgrade Taiwan could make that cannot be countered by the Mainland, is to do away with it’s obsolete army of conscripts and become a professional military force. Mainland China would not be able to match it, without the civilian infrastructure.
You can’t just count heads (or tanks), you also have to think about training, equipment, discipline, morale and motivation. Which I admit could be problems for Taiwan, but nothing like the Iraqi situation.
For one thing Taiwan has an air force. Iraq didn’t this time, since the U.S. dominated its airspace as the result of previous treaties. As I recall, back when they DID have one (during the last war), half of them ended up fleeing to Iran.
For another, Taiwan has formidable natural defenses, being an island and all.
I agree, though, that Taiwan’s military needs reforming. They’re not nearly accountable enough to civilian government, corruption is at least as bad as in the civilian government, and then there’s the issue of what KIND of military Taiwan needs.
By the way, I don’t know what the military could possibly want with draftees, since they don’t really need a big land army. (Obviously any attack would have to come primarily by air or sea.) And it costs too much to train draftees to use expensive equipment, since they’ll be gone in a few years. Is this just political?
taiwan just finished it’s first recruiting cycle for volunteer troops. netted a whole 100 individuals.
why does taiwan need a military? china has stated time and again that anyone who messes with china will also be fighting china. taiwan has no intention of provoking china. the u.s., by her own laws is required to defend taiwan. knowing these facts, why does taiwan need anything more
than a token, outdated fighting force? who is taiwan gonna fight? PI? japan, korea? unless we merely want another entry to tack onto the coalition of the willing, why does taiwan need a large, modern fighting force? they have both the US and the PRC covering them. seems possessing the world’s finest, hi-tech coast guard would benefit taiwan much more.
What political gain can be had, by having a conscription army? As far as air superiority goes, I doubt Taiwan could obtain it without a lot of help. With one massive ballistic missile attack, China could nullify any advantage Taiwan has in air power.
It seems to me that the only thing keeping the PLA from invading is their own lack of confidence.
skeptic yank, Taiwan’s most likely enemy is China. I believe the U.S. expects (in the sense of actively wishes) them to hold out for a few days on their own before the “cavalry” arrive. And then, the U.S. might be busy invading Belgium or something–what then?
EOD, the political advantage of conscription comes from having large numbers of ex-military voters who identify with the military to some extent. At least this is how it works in Turkey. Here, maybe familiarity breeds contempt.
It’s not just lack of confidence. Apparently, from what I’m told, an invasion really WOULD be difficult here. Not that it couldn’t be done, but there are formidable technical challenges. If it doesn’t work, the result is probably an independent Taiwan–and recriminations back in China for whoever was responsible.
And whether it works or not, the PRC would have to deal with the political fallout: probable trade barriers with the U.S. (which would do what to the Chinese economy, and the floating labor population?), and new defense initiatives from Japan, Russia, India, and Vietnam.
[quote=“EOD”]What political gain can be had, by having a conscription army? As far as air superiority goes, I doubt Taiwan could obtain it without a lot of help. With one massive ballistic missile attack, China could nullify any advantage Taiwan has in air power.
It seems to me that the only thing keeping the PLA from invading is their own lack of confidence.[/quote]
Taiwan already has air superiority. The Chinese missiles are not allthat precise and I would think that the PAC-3 system Taiwan is trying to get will nab the majority of them.
Chill out dude, Taiwan isn’t all bad.
Taiwan isn’t all that bad. On the contrary, I have lived in a lot more horrible places. Taiwan has the potential to rival Japan as a premiere economy in East Asia. I believe that unless it makes some very real changes soon, Taiwan will look more like the Philippines, economically.
The size of the Chinese amphibious assault would be the largest the world has ever seen. Only mother nature could stop it. China has the resources to blow Taiwan back into the stone ages, conventionally. Taiwan’s air force is useless if they don’t have an intact airstrip. China has enough missiles aimed at Taiwan right now to take care of that. Patriots and Pac 2 and 3 defense systems are only as good as the people manning them. Even then they have some real problems. Why did Israel decide to develop it’s own, when the Americans were willing to give them Patriots and Pac 3’s for free.
The ballistic missile attacks on allied forces in the Gulf were for psychological effect. China’s missile attack will have a much more material objective. The added physiological effect would send the conscription army of Taiwan running for the hills.
Silkworm ver.2 and 3 would annihilate any naval advantage Taiwan would have, add to that a Victor class sub and that’s it for Taiwan’s navy in the straits.
If China attacked today, Taiwan would most probably be lost until the American forces were able to retake it. No doubt the the US armed forces would be too busy with the North Koreans. If Taiwan does not reform it’s military yesterday, there may be no Taiwan for the next generation.
Wonder how they are going to pull that off with an amphibious capacity of 15,000 soldiers. I posted the link to the federation of american scientists somewhere else on the site. Look into that. I trust those guys. The rest is scaremongering.
Read the whole article at:
Leaked Pentagon Study on Taiwan’s Military Vulnerability Ignores Chinese-Taiwanese Intentions
by Senior Analyst Nicholas Berry
“Portions of a highly-classified Pentagon report appeared in the Washington media at the end of March. According to media accounts of the report, Taiwan’s military capability to protect itself from a Chinese air and missile attack is deteriorating. Taiwan is vulnerable because of a “host of problems” within its military establishment…”
For stats:
cdi.org/issues/Asia/CHINAMIL.html
cdi.org/issues/Asia/taiwanmi.html
How many missiles did the US fire on Iraq in that war they just had? How does that comapre to China’s 3 or 4 hundred? Are they much better. It seems to me that China’s missiles might be less accurate. Is it Patriots Taiwan would be defending with is it? Just read in the paper that the US only shot down 8 Iraqi missiles with the patriots, but 3 of its own planes. Doesn’t sound like good odds.
Brian
How can Taiwan possibly get truely “upgraded” modern military equipment when none of the countries dare to sell it such without China getting in the way. Almost everything Taiwan has bought so far are garbage (ok, functional garbage; sort of like an old TV set someone dumps in the garbage pile but still works). But yet the Taiwanese politicians still have to bow down to the American government for selling Taiwan antiquated, and literally, retired equipment for the price of modern equipment (I am no expert on military equipment quotes, just my perception).
With that said, I agree Taiwan needs a small but high tech military force. But how big will this “professional” army be is still questionable, given that most parents will probably frown upon their kids for joining the army on their own will. To the parents, if there is a war, being in the army spells certain death. The mentality is, sure, I love Taiwan, but why should MY son fight China when someone else’s son can? I know my parents are that way, which pisses me off sometimes.
Regarding U.S., as much I’d love to place my trust on U.S. coming to the rescue when Taiwan gets into trouble with China, but what happens if U.S. is engaged in something like Iraq again, where they have placed close to 1/2 of a million troops? And What happens if she finds herself in a couple of wars herself at the same time? Who, then, will come to Taiwan’s rescue if U.S. is too busy fighting her own battles? Militarily, it’s always the best to assume the worst, and in Taiwan’s case, it’s especially true.
scchu
The Taiwan Foreign Legion,
Mercenary forces have been around for a long time. They are particularly preferable when indigenous forces are unreliable. They have their drawbacks of course, but it would solve so many of Taiwan’s military personal problems and may cost about the same.
[quote=“EOD”]The Taiwan Foreign Legion,
Mercenary forces have been around for a long time. They are particularly preferable when indigenous forces are unreliable. They have their drawbacks of course, but it would solve so many of Taiwan’s military personal problems and may cost about the same.[/quote]
The only problem I can see is that instead of those dashing French berets and “kepi blanc” of La Legion Etrangere, we’d probably have to wear “gua-pi mao”. And that would really suck. 
“Ever Victorious Army”, anyone?
I don’t think you or I would fit well into any military Taiwan has to offer. Something more along the lines of the Gurkha’s was what I had in mind. A ready made force contracted out and under professional leadership. It could be used to supplement the regular forces and allow the top heavy brass to keep their numbers and positions.
Damn it! Where are the Chinese Boxers when you need them!
I’m sure that fear of these warriors is the reason the Communist Chinese don’t invade.
etaiwannews.com/Taiwan/2003/ … 960500.htm
Conscripts dismayed by defense ministry’s order to return to base
Angry at being called back to their base while on vacation, conscripts at Ilan’s Chin Liu Chieh barracks staged a small protest yesterday morning by refusing to eat their breakfast.
[quote=“blueface666”]Read the whole article at:
Leaked Pentagon Study on Taiwan’s Military Vulnerability Ignores Chinese-Taiwanese Intentions
by Senior Analyst Nicholas Berry
“Portions of a highly-classified Pentagon report appeared in the Washington media at the end of March. According to media accounts of the report, Taiwan’s military capability to protect itself from a Chinese air and missile attack is deteriorating. Taiwan is vulnerable because of a “host of problems” within its military establishment…”
For stats:
cdi.org/issues/Asia/CHINAMIL.html
cdi.org/issues/Asia/taiwanmi.html[/quote]
I would trust this a lot more if it weren’t from an outfit (cdi.org) that Capital Research (capitalresearch.org) calls “a spin-off of the far-left Institute for Policy Studies”. Link requires Adobe Acrobat PDF viewer:
capitalresearch.org/pubs/pdf/x3767641245.pdf
Page 1, left column, near the bottom.
I’d never heard of CDI before, so I glanced at the rest of their website and Googled them. Any group with such a palpable ideological bias is suspect, especially when it’s a left-wing group discussing the “intentions” of the last major communist power.
BTW, oddly enough, although the above report is about opposition to the planned U.S. NMD, page six has several paragraphs discussing various groups’ positions (or lack thereof) on the U.S. commitment to the defense of Taiwan.
Maybe Taiwan should buy an aircraft carrier…this one is only $4,500,000US. That’s pretty darn cheap!
frenchcreekboatsales.com/det … mber=BOP12
I think an invasion of Taiwan would be a lot easier than everyone thinks; the real issue being not the quality of Taiwan’s military but the loyalty of its mainlander, pro-China officer class. Would they fight, or just go over to China en masse? Difficult to say.
As for China’s military, they don’t need fancy stuff. The have plenty of fishing boats. Launch all the missiles at Taiwan’s Command and Control apparatus, suppress its airfields with China’s vastly superior air force (in numbers) and then toss the troops across in fishing boats. Sure, losses, might be great, but who cares? I suspect as long as some Chinese troops get across, Taiwan will crumble.
Vorkosigan