Taiwan - what's the chances of radical changes to status quo?


China is a lot more cohesive and economcally powerful than the Soviet Union. Chinese also buy into a nationalistic rising china argument making it more similar to Japan prior to WWII than the Soviet Union. Basically a powerful china is not going do disappear. Instead , given some probable ups and downs in between such as an economic recession, they will gradually grow stronger.

In fact there are many simikarities such as Japan feeling it was being contained by the British and Americans at the time and that it had a right to an Asian empire and also needed the resources of the region to compete economically and militarily. The attack on pearl harbour was to speed up the existing plan as they had decided there would be a conflict sooner or later anyway.
China isn’t as aggressive as Japan outside of what it considers its core territories but it will try to make south East Asian countries into vassal states if it can.

Its definitely a real possibility that China could try to preempt American support for Taiwan by a rapid invasion if both sides continue to diverge. It is correct to say this is not realpolitik to the Chinese but will ultimately be a matter of nationalism. If they ever get a foothold in Taiwan we will never be free again.


It’s Chinese empire building, and it needs to be named as such.

I think it’s best to never say never, but it’s hard to disagree with your basic point.



Preemption is the the only way to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and to preserve peace.

US already has access to and presence in Taiwan since 1945. US withdrawing (of force) from Taiwan invites an inevitable war and encourages territorial expansion by China in the South East quadrant in order to encircle Taiwan.

US deployment in Taiwan eliminates China’s option to seek territorial expansion in the South East. China will have NO choice but to turn its attention to Russia.