Taiwan's 2024 Presidential Election

Think the CCP has a tight grip on his nuts

I think he has a tight grip on the CCP’s nuts. Can you imagine what would happen if the millions of people he employs in China became unemployed overnight should he decide to move his factories to another country?

Not sure who’s got the tighter grip really

They’re gripping (and stroking) each other’s balls. I guess that’s how inter-dependent relationships work. Both have the other’s hand on their own balls, so neither has any leverage over the other.

Early prediction, and I’m not likely to sway in my thinking… Hou You-Yi (I guess he spells his name Hou Yu-ih) will be the KMT candidate and the next president of Taiwan. Serious gut feeling.

Yeah, most likely. Whenever war with China is on the horizon, people tend to vote for the KMT.

Besides, I believe Ko’s TPP will attract more DPP voters than KMT voters, so the DPP votes will get split.

I can understand the appeal of Terry. I know people who are not KMT voters who would vote for him.

Its wrong to call him pro-ccp. I know that he isnt. He is very much pro-engagement and the communist party has too much leverage over him.

There is a lot of malaise with the nepotism, corruption and just ineffectiveness of the two main parties. Nothing really gets done here or changes here. Some people see Terry as someone who will shake up the public sector and improve the economy. Kinda in the way Chen Shui Bian wasnt afraid to piss people off.

Hou and Lai are not international, whereas Terry is kind of and has a greater vision.

I wouldnt vote for him. I dont think he would be a good president. I dont like him as a person. But i do understand his appeal in a political landscape that is in stasis

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Even though I don’t want Gou to win, he would actually be really good for my short-term self-interests.

This is the biggest problem.

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DPP has been doing really well.

Can you be more specific? What policies have you liked?

Guy

Yeah was thinking about this. Things have definitely been better under Tsai. Taiwan definitely got better in the last 8 years.

She has benefitted from changes in the bigger picture though. Such as Taishang returning and CCP becoming even more odious.

A lot of stuff is still moving too slowly. Like road safety, housing, labor rights etc. A lot is still the same as it was 8 years ago

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I also thought Ko was an ok mayor of Taipei though. The city has improved a lot.

I actually dont know what Chiang Wan An is doing at all. When Ko came into power, he appeared at least dynamic in the beginning and seemed to be shaking things up and bringing in new policies.

That definitely faded away, especially in the second term, but in the beginning was some vim.

I havent heard anything from Chiang.

Althought not that I’m following Taiwan politics that closely these days

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He seems to have been in reactive mode, dealing with (for example) the crazy pavement sink in Xinyi District.

I suspect how he emotes, and whether people feel he cares, will determine his popularity.

I agree that the energy is totally different from when Ko showed up as mayor, and before then when Chen showed up as mayor in the 1990s. Those were the biggest shakeups, and Taipei City is better for it.

Guy

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No

TPP does well with educated metropolitan blues and moderates.

The educated folks I know can’t stand Ko, either for his unapologetic sexism or for his avoidance of the national identity question. Then again these are light greens I am talking about, so maybe I have just supported your point. :joy:

Guy

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If you look at the polls. His party does well with the younger, higher educated, and higher-income blues. In Taipei and Hsinchu at least

經濟藍/知識藍 I believe is the term.

Han pushed a lot of those people away, as they found him uncouth and too close to China.

Most things. Better economy, less pollution, low inflation etc. are all pretty good. Thinking about it they’ve never done or said anything that bothered me much which is a lot more than what you can say about Ma or Ko.

I don’t think the lack of change in these areas is because of the government’s lack of effort.

No it hasn’t. Ko is awful. If anything improved it wasn’t because of his mayorship.

The equivalent of republican Wall Street bros. Ew.

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He’s like Elon Musk without the money.

I don’t believe those people ever voted for the KMT, even if they identified as “blue” (also because they are young and maybe never even voted for a president before), so I don’t believe the TPP would take away many KMT votes.

Most KMT voters I know are older (Gen X or above), stubborn, and would never vote for any other party. DPP voters, on the other hand, are more likely to be open-minded about switching to a centrist party.

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