Hard to say what’s going to happen to this place.
China is taking over most of the low-end manufacturing. this is labor intensive, meaning that unemployment is probably here to stay.
High end? China has 2-3 low-end IC foundries up and running now. US export restrictions will keep the most advanced technilogy out of their hands near and mid term. That industry will stay in Taiwan for the next 5-10 years.
Taiwan struggling up the value chain, building brands and slowly eroding western brands?
Acer might have triedwith limited success, but they aren’t a real competitor in the US or China. Europe is merely a consolation price.
D-Link tried building a brand within their networking equipment business. They fell flat on their face.
Chip design etc? The brains is here, not in the mainland. Taiwanese chip designers, engineers etc demand expat benefits for postings on the Mainland. The mainland engineers aren’t there yet.
PC/NB assembly etc has largely migrated, followed by PCB manufacturers etc. More unemployment here.
Traditional industries? Moving. some may stay, but most of them will be gone, if they haven’t left already.
In other words, pockets of mid to high end industry tech industry will stay mid term, but most of the lower end is migrating.
We will have pockets of prosperity and risingunemployment. Moderate economic growth mid term, shring to non looking out longer term. Therte might be one cycle left, but that will most likely be it.
What does that mean to the foreign community?
Foreigners on expat packages are getting moved to Shanghai or are getting replaced with locals. Too bad for them.
English teachers? Business will be good, no need to worry. Locals will compete for the increasingly scarce jobs and will upgrade their skills as much as they can.
Young career-minded (IE non-teaching professionals) foreigners like me? I personally will hang on here for as long as possible, but I must admit that I see and treat Taiwan as a good training ground before relocating to the Mainland at some point in the future.
However, the Mainland is not a very stable place and plenty can go wrong. In case we have another Tiananmen, Taiwan might get a reprieve.