Thought it was about time to revisit this thread. The discussion here so far centered primarily on the good/bad economic ramifications of Taiwan’s falling birth rate. Thought I’d post some more recent info about the effects on education. Back in May, I posted this:
[quote=“smell the glove”]The baby bust is already having huge effects in education: predictably, each year the number of students is shrinking dramatically. There were 18,000 less college freshmen in 2004 from 2003, and this is widely attributed to the slowing birth rate of the 80s. In 2003, there were 300,000 less first grade students than in 2002. Noting the significant drop in the birthrate just between 2002 and 2003 (1.51), the Ministry of Education says that by the time the children born in 2003 enter elementary school in 2009, there will 2,900 fewer classes than there are now. That means serious downsizing, and possibly the closure, of a good many preschools, private schools, buxibans, and even colleges.
Anyone seeing the effects firsthand? I know of a few preschools that have closed their doors, and others with just a handful of students – but there still seem to be quite a few that pack them in. Some buxibans are down by half of what they were a decade ago. I also know a good number of elementary school teachers who worry about keeping their jobs… [/quote]
Well, as the new school year approaches, it looks like elementary schools across Taiwan are taking a hit in the lower grades. One public elementary school teacher I spoke with today told me that her school used to average 5 new first grade classes (30 students per class, 150 total) each year, but dropped to 4 last year, and barely made 4 this year. She said most of the schools in her district are down 60-100 students from just a few years ago. In fact, her school’s administration formally announced that they will not lay off any teachers before 2009 due to decreasing enrollment, but after that will probably have to. It’s no secret that the newest teachers will be the first to go This is corroborated by about a dozen teachers I’ve spoken to who don’t dare try to switch schools and are very concerned about their job security just three years from now.
In related news, waitlists at private elementary schools are evaporating. One noteworthy example is Zaixing Elementary School in Taipei’s Mucha district: for the first year ever, they did away with the lottery system they used to use to pick students from their ridiculously long waitlist - instead, they went out and tried to recruit students. Private schools are not only having trouble getting new students, but are also finding it increasingly difficult to keep the old ones. An insider at KCBS (Kang Chiao Bilingual School) told me that this year many parents decided to switch to other schools (many going into the public school system) due to the high cost of KCBS tuition - and these are generally fairly wealthy parents. The situation shouldn’t be all that surprising - after all, there is still a general perception of economic stagnation, salaries haven’t kept pace with the cost of living, and no matter what the comparisons to other countries, it’s now more expensive to raise a child in Taiwan than it ever was before.
Then there’s the “foreign bride” phenomenon.
Statistically speaking, marriage and birth rates tend to decrease then level off as women attain higher levels of education - in Taiwan, gender differences in education disappeared back in 1991, but neither rate is levelling off. At present, 45% of Taiwanese between 20-39 are single. It’s hard to say for sure whether that includes lots of women who don’t want to marry and lots of men who do, but one thing’s for sure: Taiwanese men have been increasingly turning abroad for marriage partners (primarily to Mainland China and Vietnam). Though the trend started a few years earlier, since 2002, 1 in 4 marriages in Taiwan have been to foreign brides, accounting for about 13% of children annually born in Taiwan. If you want more detail, I highly recommend Laurence Eyton’s excellent article on the subject from 2003.
So where are we now? It’s estimated that of 30 kids in first grade public school classes in Taiwan, 5 have a “foreign bride” mother (17%). Where the fathers are the traditional patriarchal type, the onus of caring for children and helping them with homework often falls on the mothers, many of whom don’t speak Mandarin (including many Chinese brides, who speak their local dialect at home with their children). Public school teachers are now in a panic about the demographic shift, with some wildly speculating that the numbers will increase to 50% in just a few years’ time. One positive development, however, is that more and more Taiwan public elementary schools are opening evening “foreign bride classes” (外籍新娘課).
On a personal note, I recently went to a friend’s house, and her uncle was there with his wife and kids. The wife was from Vietnam, and her Mandarin, though heavily accented, was excellent. She told me that in the beginning there was no “class” at the elementary school for foreign mothers, so she just learned Mandarin along with her children. She said she worked really hard at it, but that most of her Vietnamese friends only know survival Chinese – even after several years here and with kids in school. I asked about her kids’ education, and she said they had a lot of difficulty in the beginning (particularly the eldest), but that they now all know the language far better than she does. The children primarily speak Mandarin, but they can understand Mandarin, Vietnamese, and Taiwanese. Some people at my friend’s house seemed to look down on her. But we had a great time talking about experiences in Taiwan and sharing tips for learning Chinese…
:loco: Or was it that an increase in immigration was resulting in a rise in overall birthrate due to greater fecundity among immigrants? But this does not appear to be the case:
Good mathematics redwagon! Damn! you think 10,000 women per year are into this?!
Quite a few