Taiwan's Future and CCP's Sustainability

Hi @Podone2

Your overall assessment is pretty realistic.

Pre-Trump there was no chance of any sort of military conflict but as you correctly identified the current situation leaves at least some room for concern. It’s highly unlikely though. @Brianjones is right, the Mainland will likely take over administering TW but it likely won’t entail a military conflict. The current US administration expedited this process and left TW as a bargaining chip in negotiations between China and the US. This wasn’t the case before 2016 but it’s a different world now.

Most of the posters here in the politics threads are ‘Trump Can Do No Wrong’ types with a extreme far right wing bias and they often fall over themselves to try to prove how pro Taiwan they are by naively pushing for a military conflict between TW/China…so don’t get too swept up if they tell you the US is pushing China back, or it’s Obama’s fault etc. Your read on it is pretty reasonable and you’re not an initiate. They’re talking to each other only.

As far as the ‘S Koreans are welcome others are not’ not all TW or expats living here subscribe to this great chain of being way of thinking, most people are chill. Overall its a fine place to live.

Generally speaking, the chance of a military conflict is very small. There is a significant chance it will turn into a HK type situation. You can thank 45 and his gaggle of Top Gun wannabe warriors for that.

good luck!

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Don’t listen to this guy @Podone2 , one of the most leftist biased guys here. Trump is always wrong types.

No one here is pro conflict, most are pro strong defense. There is a huge difference. The same way koreans are strong on defense with NK. No different as most Koreans do not wish to fight their brothers again. Neither do we. But we want to protect our way of like like in Korea… As a half Taiwanese and Korean, I can tell you that this the first time countries are having a dialogue in a long time. The chances of diplomacy working for denuclearization is small, but the chances of that before was 0.

Perhaps you see this as more potential risk, but status quo with NK is unrealistic as they’ve shown even isolation and sanctions, they are dedicated to the military and nuclear advancement. And they’ve made continuous progress to prove it. Expecting it to go away if we just don’t poke the bear is foolish and puts the pressure on the next generation. We never expected they could build an ICBM, but here they are.

I don’t know how exactly it will play out, but our brothers and sisters are suffering in the north. They do not deserve to live under such a cruel regime, no one does. I know that.

Many Koreans live here like my mom. Zeros issues. The risk of war with China is slim, they are more likely going to use economic means to reunify.

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@Podone2

This is kind of what I’m talking about. This is sort of like the “if everyone walked around with guns it would make us all safer” type of reasoning. In their minds the way we all become safer is by ramping up military situations with China.

I lived in Taiwan for over 10 years and under previous administrations there was never any thought of a military conflict between TW/China in anyone’s mind. That possibility is still remote, but much like far right gun extremists you’re dealing with a group of locked minded militarist thinkers that see any non-military conflict resolution as ‘capitulation’ etc. Youll see it gets very jingoistic quickly.

Every US administration was ‘pro strong defense’, as evidenced by the fact that Obama sold weapons to Taiwan just like every other US president. He sold 1.83 billion in weapons to Taiwan. This is par for the course, and nobody is saying not to defend Taiwan. You see how it works.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-arms-idUSKBN0TZ2C520151217 These guys will describe anyone left of themselves as ‘leftist’, this is kind of what I’m talking about. Just like you said, you’re more worried about Trump than Kim. You’re not wrong.

Overall, chances of war went from none to very slim.

PS: None of these guys will ever fight in the wars they’re calling other people to fight and pay for.

Edit: Correction: Almost everyone here. @Andrew0409 would fight in any invasion but none of the very vocal pro-military conflict expats here would. There’s even a thread about where they could run away to if an actual conflict started.

Another false statement as im obliged until 36.

Never mind that the current administration has done more for Taiwan. You see how @homersimpsun will ignore improvement like the Taiwan travel act with opened out dialogue between the two countries and even had our president visit for the first time.

There’s nothing wrong with defense, Korea has a strong defense and has conscription like Taiwan.

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Nope, this the other guys have guns and threatens to use it every day so I should probably get guns just in case reasoning. Not crazy.

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The video is gone,

But at the ICN international nursing event. The Chinese delegate went over to the Taiwanese nurse and put her hand to cover her flag.

Not a mystery why many Taiwanese have negative feelings towards the PRC and PRC nationals.

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I hear you. The way you phrased it left some room for ambiguity about whether or not you were presenting others views or your own, but if you’re presenting the overall mind state I know what you’re saying. It’s unfortunate but I won’t disagree that that prejudice is common there.

Sometimes the Anti-China stuff gets laid on way too thick in TW, esp by a certain crowd.

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I don’t think the tanks are for an actual conflict. Weapons sales has always been about showing support of the “treaty” to defend the island. A symbolic gesture. Or else they would send the F35s and helicopters armed with hell fire missiles.

I too do not want a conflict. I obviously would not like to go to war if it’s avoidable. But I would like to know we have at least some reasonable defense, maybe even just enough to shut down any realistic chances of an invasion. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. Just enough to make sure the loss is too great to invade.

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Puke. I hear you.

Rise above it then. Don’t be them. (Not saying you are, but the way to fight this isn’t to hate them back).

Sometimes the pro Taiwan zealots can get overboard too man. My wife is TW and I remember a dinner once one of the know-it-all-out-local-you foreigners was in her face lecturing down at her that she wasn’t really Chinese descent as she thought, but actually aboriginal and wouldn’t relent. She sat there and smiled but I could hear her under her breath saying something something like “are you telling me about my own life”? (She has papers showing her family descends from Fujianese).

One expat I know thought the answer is not to serve Chinese patrons in establishments. Ban them. No! Be democratic, show them that TW is a free country, engage them in a dialogue that may change their minds. If TW sinks to their level of chauvinism are they better?

Can’t fight hate with hate.

Perhaps, but the anti Taiwan stuff is on another level in China. I think it got even worse these days. Xi mostly left the Taiwan issue alone until the last couple of years. There is a strong hatred of Taiwanese now, and I’ve seen it myself. It makes me feel like any chance of peace is far away. Especially if the CCP is in power.

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sure but thats on a political level. actually i think the prejudice is more on a personal level (chinese are rude ect ect). i actually think taiwanese are not vigilant enough on a political level. but i think thats way off topic at this point. i was originally just making a joke about south koreans people quite popular in taiwan…

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I think nationalism has gotten very extreme these days in China. And many will also agree that they see that as foreigners in China. The few I know left maybe last year because they felt the change coming. Some of that is also a disdain for Taiwanese people. My girl was ordering some stuff from China and the people message her that they don’t support Taiwan and will not send things to Taiwan. I’ve never seen that before.

When I was there around 5-6 years ago. I had no issues really. These days I get a lot of hateful anti Taiwanese comments. Like we hate our own race and stuff like that.

I’m sure it’s worse there. No doubt about that and they’re programmed since birth on the issue. CCTV is heinous.

All TW can do is not be them and lead by example.

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This would be easy if countries would just recognize Taiwan. It’s ridiculous because all of the basically treat and interact with Taiwan as a country and just change words around.

Also remember the PRC are doing a lot of terrible shit to ethnic minorities inside China. So that’s why I get bristly about comments about how ‘the Chinese’ are x,y,z. Lots of dissidents in China that would share your opinion if they were free to without disappearing in the middle of the night.

I know. But they will keep the propaganda of how well they treat them. When I went there with my American class mates to study. They made a whole presentation of how they are so kind to the ethnic minorities. Give them free college and such. They even had some come and do a song and dance together.

That and that they are a democracy. They tried so hard to explain they are actually democratic lol. Modern Chinese leaders state that they run a "socialist democracy " where the Communist Party of China is a central authority that acts in the interest of the people.

And in one class, I saw the teacher posted a map where China is a separate country, next day she changed it lol. She was an actual CCP member though, pretty insane talking to her. She has an answer and explanation for everything. It’s like she memorized it all, probably did.

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I agree with you, but I also feel independence is an unrealistic goal and pushing too hard for it when TW is already a de-facto country is foolish.

TW is already a country. You need a passport to go there, 'nuff said. They have their own money, their own culture, their own health care system, self governace etc. I can get that it’s degrading to have to sew ‘Chinese Taipei’ (a non existent place) on sports Jerseys, can’t sit on WHO meetings, UN etc…but that’s never gonna happen and the gains from a push for independence will be marginal at best and the risk is way too high.

If I learned anything in TW living there a decade, its the TW idiom ‘publicly rigid privately flexible’. You tell Uncle Zhongguo across the river what he wants to hear, roll your eyes, and then do whatever you want and he leaves you alone.

Sometimes TW lose sight of the fact they are a tiny island less than half the size of Wisconsin facing a nuclearized superpower with a pop. of over a billion and nukes pointed at it. They’re NOT going to win an armed conflict with them. So why poke the bear?

They already have the country they want. TW is a country. Who cares if China recognizes it?

Addendum re: your last post: Yeah, getting into it with them can be pretty comic after a while. They def have an answer for everything.

I think it’s because China knows it’s at the very least an EXTREMELY expensive endeavour to take Taiwan militarily. Taiwan is a tech superpower as well, has very favourable geography/homefield advantage and has access to the ocean.

We shouldn’t just ‘give’ Taiwan so easily for free, even if it’s 1C2S. They have shown the promises made are empty. It would provide China access to US weapons technology that has been sold here, gives China access to the ocean to challenge the US in a more equal level and Taiwan can easily cost China upwards of a trillion US dollars which would be disastrous and embarassing when people lose their jobs. We have food. We have arable land. We can dredge through this. This defeatist mentality is only playing into their hands to get ALL this awesome real estate for free. China gets Taiwan doesn’t just mean the loss of democracy and human rights for 23 million people, it also means tracking technologies in your phones and computers. Sneaky ways to undermine and hack technologies we NEED and our economies rely on. And you’re just willing to appease them?

But I also have choice words for the rabid pro independence people too. I get it. I agree with them too, but, people like that hunger striker need to realise that we have to play the longer game and let China implode under the weight of the CCP’s lies and corruption. When the bubble bursts and China has its first recession, they’ll have nobody to blame but the CCP. It’ll be all over for them. If it does mean war, then they’re shooting one of their biggest customers, millions of job losses would instantly cause a major recession. Once the taps run out of water…it’s game over for the CCP.

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My worry is they look to Taiwan to point at an enemy when that happens. It’s one of the reasons I believe Xi became more hostile vocally, the economy slowed down a bit.

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Right. We’re one of their biggest customers here in Taiwan Numba One. War mean the Taiwan tap at the very least would turn off, effective immediately. China relies on Taiwan for the purchasing of Chinese-manufactured goods. I can’t imagine the government being insane as to allow imports from an Enemy Alien in war. They don’t offer anything special that Vietnam and India couldn’t provide.

China needs us, the west and Taiwan more than we need China.