Your overall assessment is pretty realistic.
Pre-Trump there was no chance of any sort of military conflict but as you correctly identified the current situation leaves at least some room for concern. It’s highly unlikely though. @Brianjones is right, the Mainland will likely take over administering TW but it likely won’t entail a military conflict. The current US administration expedited this process and left TW as a bargaining chip in negotiations between China and the US. This wasn’t the case before 2016 but it’s a different world now.
Most of the posters here in the politics threads are ‘Trump Can Do No Wrong’ types with a extreme far right wing bias and they often fall over themselves to try to prove how pro Taiwan they are by naively pushing for a military conflict between TW/China…so don’t get too swept up if they tell you the US is pushing China back, or it’s Obama’s fault etc. Your read on it is pretty reasonable and you’re not an initiate. They’re talking to each other only.
As far as the ‘S Koreans are welcome others are not’ not all TW or expats living here subscribe to this great chain of being way of thinking, most people are chill. Overall its a fine place to live.
Generally speaking, the chance of a military conflict is very small. There is a significant chance it will turn into a HK type situation. You can thank 45 and his gaggle of Top Gun wannabe warriors for that.