So… is this democratic or anti-democratic?
trick question, unconstitutional.
Of course it is a thousand times more reasonable than this red mob caterwauling idiocy and talk of fomenting political strikes.
The constitution provides a mechanism for recalling a president or any other elected official whom the electorate believes is no longer adequately fulfilling or able to fulfil the duties he was elected to perform. That is perfectly democratic.
If those seeking to recall him can satisfy the legislative and referendum thresholds, then how could anyone possibly object to his being removed from office in this manner? It would have the highly unfortunate consequence of placing Annette Lu in the presidency, but it could not be objected to as undermining or damaging Taiwan’s democratic system.
I would certainly not condemn any DPP legislator who voted in favour of holding a recall referundum to let the people decide Chen’s fate. But we all know that few if any DPP legislators are likely to do so, and that there’s almost no possibility that the pan-blues can rally the requisite two-thirds majority to pass such a motion.
So instead of making another evidently futile effort to push this through the current legislature, why not take the course that should all but guarantee Chen’s recall if that is what the pan-blues really want? As I have written before, all they need to do is bring down Su and cabinet (倒蘇) through a no-confidence vote to prompt the dissolution of the legislature so that they can win a much larger majority in the ensuing legislative elections and then be able to proceed with the recall process with all obstacles cleared from their path and certain of success as long as they can persuade even a bare majority of the electorate of its merits.
What could be simpler than that? And how could anyone object to it as being undemocratic?
Because that is not their current agenda. This one will focus on showing that it is the DPP who is blocking the LY from making any important decision.
Also, don’t forget that there should be a shrinking LY in the next ellections, so most legislators are not very interested in loosing their status and go find another job or go to jail.
Oh no the Green obstructing a PFP initiative, what happened to democracy.
Omni, if the Prez dismisses the legislature, it will cause a massive constitutional crisis in Taiwan. This is because the legislative election districts for the new legislature (reduced to 113 reps) have not been approved by the current legislature. If the legislature is dissolved, there will be no legislature to approve the districts. How then will they be constructed, and by who? Both Wang and Ma have alluded to this issue in their opposition to bringing down Su.
I almost hope they bring down Su. He hasn’t embarrassed himself too badly in the Premiership, and will thus be prevented from anything bad happening to him that might damage his chances to beat Ma in '08.
Vorkosigan
Why do you have to ask? Don’t you know?
Yes, I was thinking about that yesterday and wondering how the new electoral boundaries will be drawn up. As it will not be in any party’s interests for the situation to remain in an impasse, the leaders of all the parties will have to get together to agree on the appointment of a boundary commission. Perhaps the dissolution of the LY will need to be suspended pending its approval of the membership and powers of such a commission. It really is a tricky situation.
However, from what I heard on the radio this morning, it seems that the PFP is determined to go down this path. A spokesman for the PFP said that, if their second recall motion failed (as everyone knows it certainly will), they would immediately move to bring down the cabinet and force a general election. While the KMT didn’t express 100% support for this move, they sounded like they’d be more likely to go along with it than not. It seemed as if they were almost trying to use that as a threat to DPP legislators that, if they didn’t agree to putting Chen’s recall to a referundum, they’d lose their seats in the LY and most of them wouldn’t have much chance of being re-elected.
I don’t think he’d be hurt by it at all. And I’d rather like to see it happen because it would clear a lot of the garbage out of the LY, especially those so called “independents” and the PFP.
Also, it would once and for all determine exactly where the electorate stands on whether or not Chen should be removed from office. If they say yes to his removal, fair enough, and we’ll just have to grit our teeth and endure the horror of Loony Lu running the country for a year and a bit, and hope she couldn’t take advantage of it to secure the DPP candidacy for the 2008 election. And if they say no, that’ll put an end to all of this nonsense, as the pan-blues and reds won’t have a leg to stand on in claiming to express the will of the people by calling for Chen to step down.
Tha’s why I think they will never let it come to that. The Blues benefit mroe from ongoing instability than from a resolved crisis.
Hell yes.
And the TSU.
Tha’s why I think they will never let it come to that. The Blues benefit mroe from ongoing instability than from a resolved crisis.[/quote]
Really now? Let’s look at the facts. That CSB won by 38% of the vote in 2000 and barely 50% in 2004. His approval rating is hovering below 20%. The pan-green parties never got half of the LY seats. In the last regional elections, the green candidates lost many of their recent gains and even some of their strongholds. Basically, the greens were ascendant for a while but already peaked; they never really made it solidly past the majority mark. They got very lucky and won the executive twice. But now, today, do you think CSB is more popular or less popular than in the 2004 election? Would more than 50% support him now even though they didn’t in 2004? Where does the electorate stand on whether or not Chen should still be in office? Who asks that? It’s obvious to all what the result of a referendum on CSB and the DPP at this time would look like.
Why do you have to ask? Don’t you know?[/quote]
No, I try to leave the rhetorical, meaningless, subjective value judgements to others.
zeugmite, there won’t be ellections for Chen. Just for the LY. Oh, and if you start talking about approval rates, let the media continue opening Ma’s closet, and we might have some nice view on Mr. Clean. We already have Ma’s dog, Yoga classes and terrains for bus stops. But it will grow. Now Ma wants to destroy a 19th century elementary school (I think), and there is no project for the place where the school is. We all know that Taipei is a city where the streets are full of history, not even the oldest cities in Europe can compare, so razing a building that has more than 100 years is not a problem. Also, the guy who is responsible for the urban qualification of my area should be hanged outside. For God sake, I risk my life everyday walking outside, and I’m living in walkable distance to the City Hall… The only thing “high” in this area is the prices of the apartments. All the rest is pretty much low.
So you don’t know the expression “a referendum on [somebody]” and you hate Ma. I Care 0. The media wants to report on Ma? Good. Let them. I’m not a politician’s lackey on Forumosa, unlike some; in fact, I don’t even recall writing about him except back when that STOP_MA was prancing around here. But you see, that’s all beside the point, because this is another of your typical attempts at non-sequitur distraction.
I don’t hate Ma. Just that he is not what people try to portray him.
Second, I was stating that there won’t be a referendum, it will be blocked completelly in the LY. In fact, I believe LY ellections are more probable now…
But it wouldn’t be a referendum on CSB and the DPP. It would be a referendum on whether or not to remove Chen from the presidency before the end of his term.
Many people who are disappointed with Chen’s performance and who express their disapproval in those opinion polls would vote against his recall because they do not consider that he has done anything sufficiently bad to warrant his removal.
Many who consider him a poor president would vote against his recall because it would mean Annette Lu taking over the presidency, which is a prospect that a lot of people would find impossible to stomach.
And many middle-of-the-road voters would vote against it because they are disgusted with the treachery, hypocrisy and socially destabilizing antics of the anti-Chen protestors, and would like to give a very firm thumbs down to what they’ve been trying to do and what they represent.
The 20% of hardcore pro-unificationists represented by Soong and Lien would, of course, vote for Chen’s recall. The 20% of hardcore greens would vote against. The other 60% of the electorate will vote according to what they think is best for Taiwan, especially its economy, and the result could go either way.
But it wouldn’t be a referendum on CSB and the DPP. It would be a referendum on whether or not to remove Chen from the presidency before the end of his term.
Many people who are disappointed with Chen’s performance and who express their disapproval in those opinion polls would vote against his recall because they do not consider that he has done anything sufficiently bad to warrant his removal.
Many who consider him a poor president would vote against his recall because it would mean Annette Lu taking over the presidency, which is a prospect that a lot of people would find impossible to stomach.
And many middle-of-the-road voters would vote against it because they are disgusted with the treachery, hypocrisy and socially destabilizing antics of the anti-Chen protestors, and would like to give a very firm thumbs down to what they’ve been trying to do and what they represent.
The 20% of hardcore pro-unificationists represented by Soong and Lien would, of course, vote for Chen’s recall. The 20% of hardcore greens would vote against. The other 60% of the electorate will vote according to what they think is best for Taiwan, especially its economy, and the result could go either way.[/quote]
This looks to me like a 2 + 2 = 24 type of argument. The points raised are valid, but I think it takes quite a leap in logic to reach the 50/50 conclusion implied. In my opinion it is to greatly underestimate the current mood of the public.
Chen Shui Bian , like it or not, most of the population are well acquainted with the facts and have made up their own minds as to his guilt or involvement. Given an opportunity, passing their judgment through a referendum is something they would love to do (it’s reality tv dude) and would outweigh the factors which you say might take the vote either way.
This added to the fact that there is a perception (again rightly or wrongly based), that the justice system can’t be trusted as indicated by a poll reported in the TT a few years back . http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2002/10/18/176119. Chen Shui Bian , his son in law and his wife may be cleared or all charges , for many in Taiwan this would only justify their belief that the justice system is not to be trusted. Again, you may or may not agree with the validity, but there are people who think it will not be easy to investigate CSB while he is in office.
One last point is , that while Chen Shui Bian scraped into office with the narrowest of margins, one must consider that there will not be many who voted against him that will vote to keep him in office. from the DPP side, there will be moderates that have lost faith, those that believe its in the DPP’s interests to remove him and even those who think Annette Lu will do a better job. I don’t see many gains for Chen Shui Bian at all.
I’m sure it’s a purely academic question anyway, as it is highly unlikely to be put to the people. Hopefully the DPP might be persuaded by arguments such as yours and we will get a chance to find out.
You want to bet on LY ellections or presidency ellections?
mr_boogie,
While I understand that the nature of your posts are existentialist in nature, you can bet that when they stray too far from the rational, the bleeding obvious will be pointed out.
Good luck.
Mick