The US-China Trade War is the visible manifestation, the “ripples on the surface”, of an ongoing War on all fronts between China’s “Axis of Evil” against the Allied Nations.
The strategy to win the trade war has pivoted from “winning on trade” to “winning on military”. It’s no longer a question of who is making what and what is being shipped, it’s “How many Allies do we have? and Do they support us?”
Same with China
China refined product exports fall:
China “regrets” that the World Trade Organization cannot hear its appeal over US photovoltaic tariffs
Evergrande continues imploding after China’s 16billion investment, now China stands back as contagion spreads to other markets.
300 billion debt, 200 billion of which is stuck in unfinished construction. All coming to head around Mid-Autumn Festival…
Tech-sector investments have been decimated – falling 96%.
Overall US-China Foreign Direct Investment fell 75% since 2016.
Technology-related foreign direct investment (FDI) between China and the US dropped by 96 per cent from 2016 to 2020, as the world’s two biggest economies decouple their supply chains as part of their increasingly bitter great power rivalry.
Wow-
“The business environment for Chinese companies in the U.S. was probably a little bit less secure than it was before, and they [China] just turned their focus to investments in Europe and Africa,” said Hoecker, who specializes in technology and semiconductor practices.
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Bain’s Hoecker said the decoupling trend is here to stay, but added that it will be a very long process and it is unlikely that supply chains will be fully separated.
Taiwan made a strategic mistake regarding the trade pact application. Why didn’t they apply before ?
BBC News - Taiwan seeks entry into key trade pact before China
China in decline.
Power Shortages, starting at the factories, might be another tactic for China to squeeze the supply chain:
China’s like, yeah sure we can cut down on CO2. China out there granting “monkey’s paw wishes”.
You know what would really mess things up for the global supply chain? If China shot itself in the face- and they’re devious enough to do it!
Who was actually dumb enough to move everything (manufacturing) to China? Yeah, they shot themselves in the foot for some greenbacks.
China is blocking Boeing airplane purchases
China power cuts may effect Taiwan based business operations
“Western Expats no longer safe in China”
Brink of “Supply Chain Collapse”
Tomorrow is the Big Unveil of the US-China Trade Policy moving forward.
With Phase One set to expire end of this year, will Biden keep up the pressure or give in to China’s and Corporate America’s demands?
Dropping the tariffs will ease tensions but also kick the can further down the road – the World is facing a major conflict unfolding with China, and whether it happens now or happens later, its seems China is determined to Win at all costs.
As for Uighur Genocide, COVID pandemic, Crushing of Hong Kong, Militarization of the South China Sea, Nuclear Threats against Australia, etc… will the Chinese Communist Party suffer any consequences for their actions?
All Eyes of the World are on tomorrow’s Trade Policy…
Katherine Tai’s eventual unveiling left a lot to be desired. However, since then the US has strategically shifted it’s Trade War burden onto it’s Allies – transforming the US-China Trade War into a World-China Trade War.
China’s trade practices come under fire at the WTO…
China used…and outright abused…the WTO to make significant gains over the last 20 years. Now the US and Allies will try to use the WTO to restore some level of fairness. Will China accept the circumstances?
Of note are the comments against China at the WTO which intertwine Tariffs with China’s human rights violations. This puts an impossible ask on the Chinese Communist Party whose existence is owed to human rights violations. The CCP understands that meeting the WTO’s asks will note bode well for the party, and if its not good for the party, then China will not change course. If China does not change course, then Decoupling or War is imminent. China is thus biding its time to ensure any Decoupling or War goes in China’s favor.
“Am I worried about an armed conflict or something happening accidentally with China? No, I’m not” - Biden
"he’s made clear to Chinese President Xi Jinping that this is “competition” not “conflict.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/02/politics/china-russia-biden-cop26-g20/index.html
The latest U.S. move against Chinese companies comes amid increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing despite U.S. President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping holding video talks last week. The U.S. Commerce Department said the action is to prevent U.S. technologies from being used for China’s quantum computing efforts that could be used in military applications, “such as counter-stealth and counter-submarine applications, and the ability to break encryption or develop unbreakable encryption.”
The U.S. said it was surprised and concerned about China’s tests of nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles over the summer, the Financial Times first reported.
The latest blacklisting of companies could slow China’s ambition to build a controllable, secured and self-reliant supply chain, Jeff Pu, a tech analyst with Haitong International Securities, told Nikkei Asia.
“The blacklisting move also shows that tension between U.S. and China continues to rise,” Pu added.
Many Chinese companies still rely on U.S. technologies including design tools and equipment, as well as intellectual properties to develop chips and other technologies.
The Blacklist expands once again…
The threat of hot war persists. Stern warnings from current and former leaders hint at extremely unstable situation in China.
Also worth noting the political boycott of the Beijing Olympics on the grounds of China’s Genocide of Uyghurs and Ethnic Minorities, and forced Labor. This is directly tied to the Trade War because manufactured products in Xinjiang and possibly other parts of China may be produced under atrocious human rights violations.
China has arguably already made aggressive “land-grabs” in parts of India, total illegal takeover of Hong Kong, Myanmar coup, and the manmade islands throughout the South China Sea — this rapid expansion in the last 2 years is unprecedented.
Something that would be directly tied to the trade war would be a ban on products fron Xinjiang.
Yes its all connected. It stems from the Genocide, and this drives the decision making to ban imports and also politically boycott the Olympics. It will continue to drive future decisions such as more sanctions, or possibly future extreme actions against the Chinese Communist Party.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/09/china-xinjiang-uyghur-goods-labor-ban/
By an overwhelming 428-to-1 vote, the House moved to ban all imports from the region in northwest China unless customs officers in the United States are able to determine that the products were not made with forced labor. The bill also requires many listed companies in the United States who engage in Xinjiang-related activities to make regular disclosures. There are already U.S. restrictions on the import of several goods made there.
China has mentioned the countries that politically boycott the Beijing Olympics will pay some sort of price, but they have not hinted what that could mean.
I suspect at some point China will take severe action against US Tech companies in China, such as Apple. In 2019 Deutschebank started analyzing what would happen if China banned Apple, will be interesting to see what China does.