Meanwhile the Chinese Communist Party has slammed the Biden administration for trying to “tie Tariffs to the Taiwan question” per today’s Global Times article. And yes, yet another article whining for nearly 25 paragraphs about why the US should drop tariffs because its hurting the US economy. In other words, the tariffs have completely gutted China – they desperately need the tariffs to be dropped.
You’ll note I just posted yesterday that I commended Biden admin’s strategy to do just that:
Nuclear Arms Race underway – China opens new tunnels in Xinjiang, expanding nuclear testing facilities.
As China embarks on an arms race, so does Taiwan in their recent announcement of arms/missile/drone developments - Taiwan has even suggested selling their future developments creating a new avenue for trade in the Indo-pacific, probably with US guidance.
White House may announce ‘ambitious’ Taiwan trade road map any day now
US to unveil “ambitious” trade roadmap for US-Taiwan. Meanwhile China continues to beg the US to drop tariffs - must be quite a burn for China to see the US announce ambitious trade relations with other countries while making zero progress on China’s tariffs.
Taiwan is home to more than 90% of the manufacturing capacity for the world’s most advanced semiconductors, according to a 2021 Boston Consulting Group report.
Just 10% of TSMC’s revenue comes from China, according to the company.
“I think the real challenges for these companies are still coming from the end demand, rather than what’s going on geopolitically,” said Patrick Chen, head of research for CLSA in Taiwan.
Specifically Luxshare and Foxconn is expanding some operations in Vietnam.
“Luxshare” is the relatively new Chinese copycat of the Taiwanese “Foxconn”.
in 2004, Wang founded Luxshare after ten years at Foxconn. Her brother Wang Laishen is Luxshare’s vice chairman and is also ex-Foxconn.[2] Wang Laichun’s leadership style is seen as similar to Foxconn’s Terry Gou
In just the last 5 years Luxshare has suspiciously made significant inroads with Apple’s supply chain.
In 2022 Luxshare was accused by Taiwanese prosecutors of stealing trade secrets. They were alleged to have poached much of competitor Catcher Technology’s China based research and development team, this combined with the theft of trade secrets from Catcher is alleged to have allowed Luxshare to rapidly enter Apple’s supply chain.
It’s important to note that a disruption in Chinese supply chains at the tier 1 and 2 levels would still bring down operations in other countries. If component suppliers and process manufacturers are not actively relocating out of China, the overall impact is minimal. Furthermore, Vietnam is next door to China and very vulnerable to Chinese influence and manipulation tactics (or in a worst case scenario, a military takeover)
Notable interview with Kinpo-Compal Chairman, Rock Hsu
Topics covered: evolving of Kinpo-Compal deployment strategy, the electronics industry in Asia, the manufacturing progress in China and ASEAN countries, and the US-China trade war.
On Semiconductors:
US chip law leaves China with ‘IMPOSSIBLE’ solo challenge
China is equating US Chip Law to US Oil Embargo on Japan in WWII
Notable: AA is buying 20 supersonic planes. Japan also invested in 2017 with the option to buy 20 supersonics as well. It appears China does not have access to these though, and probably never will. This is an interesting dynamic since China has mostly shunned American companies like Boeing, in favor of Airbus recently as a result of the Trade War.
But what is “really” going on - and why do I speculate that China will never have access to these supersonic planes? Here’s why:
In a crisis, time is everything. When it comes to an international conflict, a delay in response can lead to catastrophe. Supersonic aircraft exist, but they’re often smaller and lack the systems necessary to bring the right people to the right place at the right time.
Northrop Grumman is collaborating with aircraft maker Boom Supersonic to find a way to bring aid, supplies or people to far-flung areas faster than ever before, incorporating military systems integration into the world-class Overture supersonic aircraft. This would provide the U.S. government and its allies an aircraft capable of traveling around the world and providing aid and expertise where it’s needed, when it’s needed.
The key insight is there will be a US military variant, and that this will only be for US and for helping Allies.
This is probably an arena that China will have a difficult time competing in so late in the game. US production is already expected to begin in 2024. China can have all the infantry in the world, but if they cannot put them into action quickly enough, it wont matter.
The US is on the cusp of a mass-transportation breakthrough which takes Concorde to the next level, and fuses Military-Civil technology. The impact would be similar to the Railroads use for rapid military and aid transport during the European wars in the 1830-1860’s where British, Austrian, and eventually Prussian armies used mass-rapid-transport for moving their units. The Northern Army in the US also learned from the European wars and heavily utilized trains for moving armies into the South during the 1860’s Civil War.
The US also has an edge in small-unit rapid transport via SpaceX Starship; enabling a small Seal Team 6 group to essentially deploy right on top of Xi’s house in very short time…maybe even being able to take off again in extradition missions.
And since we are on the topic of military – the US is also set to unveil the B-21 Raider this year!
The B-21 Raider is named after the “Doolittle Raiders” (in the Doolittle Raid which was planned, led by, and named after Lieutenant Colonel James Doolittle) which was the first “tip of the spear” counter to Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in WWII.
‘firm orders’ for airplanes are not generally what normal people think of as firm orders. ;D I’d also bet decent money that they’re not at first flight (for the production concept) in 2026, nor operating commercially by the end of the decade. The boom xb-1 (1/3 scale demonstrator) was ‘unveiled’ in 2016, with plans for first flight in 2017. It still hasn’t flown. I wouldn’t be shocked if that didn’t fly by 2026 (and that’s with the newest claim is it’s supposed to fly *next month * ).
While something like boom’s concept can be leveraged for the military, it’s not a gamechanger - the US and China (and France, Russia, and a few other countries) have been able to build supersonic vehicles this size* for a while; the big promise of boom is being efficient enough to be viable for commercial purposes.
*size in terms of capacity
Walk me through the CONEMPS of that… There was a DARPA “Marines in Space” program some 15 years back, and the general consensus was that sending something that looks like a big ICBM to a nuclear powered adversary is a really bad idea. Now, with the rocket cargo type projects that spacex is involved in, people are revisiting the idea, but now with a SLOW VERTICAL LANDING, because that will be more survivable.
But just think- gangs of free-loading legislators from Europe and America can fly to Taiwan, get in a banquet and a night at the hostess bars, and get right back home the next day.
Biden Administration expected to announce student loan forgiveness:
“Student loan debt relief could worsen inflation”
That’s actually the point.
It’s just one piece in a series of sequential blows (tariffs, blacklists, Fed rate hikes, etc) ultimately targeting China’s economy, in the same way China is with their currency manipulation and now debt forgiveness.
Those supersonic planes wont make jack shit of a difference. Their carrying capacity is too small. And Im sure they would be horrendously expensive to operate.
China won’t stop their daily routine of crying and complaining:
The four-year expiration date on a portion of Washington’s punitive tariffs on imports from China came and went on Tuesday, leaving in place a 25 per cent levy on goods worth about US$16 billion, despite ambivalence from US President [Joe Biden]
Huawei CEO adding to the drama machine for the CCP
In a leaked email intended only for company staff, CEO Ren Zhengfei warned that there will be “no bright spot in the world” for three to five years—a “very painful historical period” as the global economy declines.
the global economy is poised to enter a recession over the next decade
Dealing an own-goal on the Chinese economy is the point. The US and China are continuing to wield the weight of their recessing economies against each other - nobody has tapped out yet….hence Fed is prepared to take extreme measures in the months ahead.
China has placed millions of people under lockdown, dealing a new blow to the economy as it struggles to rebound from nearly three years of harsh “zero COVID” policies.
Xi consolidating power. Will it work?
“He will take China to an even more Sino-centric approach to policy, particularly foreign policy,” Steve Tsang, director of the University of London’s SOAS China Institute, told the Reuters news agency. “He will also reinforce the importance of the party leading everything in China, and the party following its leader fully,” Tsang said.
Historical Reference regarding Chinese and US economy:
When Mitt Romney was running for President, Clinton was asked for his thoughts Mitt’s “tough on China” policies.
In regards to labeling China a currency manipulator, Clinton made a very insightful comment which is relevant today:
“Now, will he declare [China] a currency manipulator? Well, He’s gonna have to think about it because he’s gonna have to look at how much of [US] debt the Chinese hold…And how dependent the world is on seeing [China’s] continued success….it wouldn’t necessarily be good for America if there were a total collapse of the Chinese economy…that would cause a lot of trouble…”
The release of this report is a very serious development. This will directly impact Chinese political and economic relations with the world. (A continuing trend, suggesting escalation of tensions and increased chance of conflict)
‘Until the day that China chooses a path to have its economy operate more like ours’, effective punitive tools are needed, says Katherine Tai
China and the US continue to wield the weight of their recessing economies against each other. Like a game of “limbo”, each seeks to see how low they can go before the other breaks.
With CCP’s big event in October coming up, they appear to have calmed some of their outgoing messaging for a brief period. Internally China is still imposing large scale lockdowns across the provinces.
Video has emerged of Chinese high schools putting students through military training. This points to an internal alignment for war. There have also been stories of CCP officials showing up at factories and telling them to change over to making military supplies.
Short of a complete resignation by the ruling party, China is beyond the point of no return.
In other words, the tariffs have completely gutted China – they desperately need the tariffs to be dropped.
).
There was a DARPA “Marines in Space” program some 15 years back, and the general consensus was that sending something that looks like a big ICBM to a nuclear powered adversary is a really bad idea. Now, with the rocket cargo type projects that spacex is involved in, people are revisiting the idea, but now with a SLOW VERTICAL LANDING, because that will be more survivable. 
