For me the biggest question is whether the US is better off with a 10% tariff. Some more revenue for the government, but if that applies to all imports, it’s a lot of pain for ordinary people.
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Yeah it’s a bit funny to see people making arguments for basically everything getting more expensive.
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It’s pretty short term small potatoes. Is this better for America or Americans than if there were no trade war? Very early to tell.
The way you lay it out does make it look good for Trump, which suggests the UK is playing a longer game.
Generously, Trump moved the ball forward a few yards on the last down in the first game of the season.
But he cut the tariffs on Rolls Royce, so that is good news for the ordinary man 
But that’s not the argument. It’s to put pressure on the other side to restructure trade. It’s a negotiation lever for the long run. I don’t see the plan for it to be permanent for most countries like the UK.
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I’m arguing that it was all style and very little substance. After all, at the bottom of page one of the FIVE PAGE agreement (yes, 5 pages, see link below and read it yourself), it states the following:
“Both the United States and the United Kingdom recognize that this document does not constitute a legally binding agreement.”
I don’t know who came out on top. You say the US did. I will trust your analysis on that. But to counter, I would say threatening one of our closest allies like this is not a win for the US in the long run.
I am against the tariffs. Targeted tariffs perhaps. Reciprocal tariffs maybe. Targets on the worst offenders like China, yes, I can buy into that. But I’m against them for the most part. With my libertarian background, I dislike the taxes.
So Boeing got an order for 30 planes that they may or may not have been the favourites for , I don’t know. But the US probably lost way more potential business potential for their planes in China (got a bunch of planes sent back ) and very possibly in Europe and Asia and Mexico and whereever else they sell planes and have hammered countries with tariffs. It is definitely not clear that the tariffs will generate more business for Boeing
It’s a start. I don’t think anyone would expect more in a few weeks. Trade deals can take years to fully flush out.
So far, it’s been a stronger start for the US. Ethanol sales is something that the US side has complained about when being blocked from the EU due to regulations. I get this doesn’t immediately impact everyone but it’s been something midwestern states have complained about for a while and it looks like the UK were able to break from EU regulations as I mentioned above to get this.
The US really just gave up luxury cars for the UK which I get from some perspective it doesn’t help that many people in the US and thats also why it’s not a big concession for the US. The UK really cares though as that’s their entire auto industry market.
I also get the perspective that negotiating too hard with business partners and allies to get the most isn’t always the right play and I have my hesitation on that along with such a large scale across the board strategy as I mentioned before.
But my doubts are being put to ease more as more countries do look to negotiate after all the tough talk. Both are doing it for their domestic voters but soften up more and more lately.there is truth that the US has leverage to get better trade structures. How far Trump wants to push that is another question.
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They were probably always going to sent back or cancelled. China always does this with Boeing when they’re not happy. they did it with Bush, Obama and Biden. For example when the US sells weapons to Taiwan, China did this.
But since you brought up this topic, this is another example of why Trump is frustrated with the EU. Airbus is always there as an opportunist when China does this and undercuts Boeing when tensions rise.
Europe was probably always leaning more and more to airbus anyways.
I can’t comment on the rest of Asia or Mexico.
I think large B2B companies are not really the threat, I think the B2B2C companies like McDonalds, Coca Cola, American liquor etc. with a strong identity as American companies might be more affected by the anti-Trump globally. Note, not anti-American, but anti-Trump, it’s a difference there
Worked for Trudeau the first time Canada was threatened. They agreed to do something they were going to do anyways, Trumpworld called it a win
I agree this is an issue for B2C that has to mange perception. But I do believe most of the tarrifs will be dropped and most countries will soften their initial tough stance against the US once both sides come to the table and they have been quietly. The US will also soften up.
I am mostly commenting on situations I’m seeing in the real world.
For example VND is getting cheaper and cheaper for me and my imports from Vietnam has been cheaper from it. They are doing this to help their export economy they rely on and don’t want to labeled a currency manipulator again. They will absolutely look to make deals to make the US happy.
There are inherent risks to what the US is doing as I mentioned my doubts in this thread, but it looks the fear of countries coming together to fight back isn’t happening as that’s hard to do with everyone having their own interests at heart. So it’s becoming more 1v1 these days making it easier to manage.
By hitting everyone with tariffs, Trump avoids singling out one country, which ironically makes group retaliation harder. I think I was wrong in my initial assessment of coordinated opposition to the US. China tried to push that but it seems to have fallen flat.
Almost like declaring a trade war on the world was a failure right out the gate
Everyone would have been perfectly happy to talk, anyways.
Even if Britain buys boeing aircraft they will still make money as airbus increases their sales to the rest of the world (the wings are made in Britain).
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That sounds ideal, but the reality is that the U.S. has been talking for decades and across multiple administrations. Clinton, Bush, Obama, even early Biden tried the polite, talk-first approach. And what happened? Not much for countries like the EU and China.
Different things in different places. Canada and Mexico just renogotiated a free trade deal with… the Dumpster in his 1st term
Sure, the smart thing to do would have been to focus here. Dumbest trade war ever.
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China’s exports surge as shipments to Southeast Asian countries offset plunge in U.S. trade
- Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, according to data released by China’s customs authority on Friday, sharply beating Reuters’ poll estimates of a 1.9% rise.
- China’s outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, official data showed.
China is actively trying to adapt. I get that. But do you think those exports are equal to the exports they lost to the US? I don’t think so.
I’m betting most of those exports are raw materials for SE countries to export their own manufacturing anyways.
The US is the most sought after market. I don’t need analysis to tell me that. I’m looking to expand to the US where in my industry they spend way more and are less budget conscious. I can double my margins selling to US as the pricing structure is different.
China is not going to replace high margin finished goods with SE Asia. Not all exports are equal and Chinese manufacturing are struggling. Occasionally I poke around China to see what deals are there for me and my personal experience is they’re very desperate right now wanting to export to me in Europe. Take that for what you will.
Another interesting side to this is the EU is starting to feel what Trump is talking up. Chinas trade surplus against the EU is growing significantly and it’s also mentioned in that article. This might make the EU soften to the US more as well.
Lots going on that’s not easy to understand by the news unless you’re in the thick of it like I have been and still am.
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Not a chance. These moves seem to be pumping the brakes after slamming them on. The Chinese economy is in big trouble if they can’t get back in the same page as the US.
Who will believe their growth numbers anymore? Although most people already took them with a grain of salt.
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This is a nothingburger - BA is in the midst of a fleet modernization already with orders for delivery already in place for multiple years; this adds (non binding) orders years out.
Other than that ethanol sucks to begin with. 
Speaking of, we’ll see the deal with beef, given our hormone laden supply chain.