On the KMT side, I think the Blues will have Wang Jin-Ping and Hau Lung-Bin. Either could be president or either could be VP, but I think it’ll be those two running together. I don’t think Wu Den-Yi will want to be VP for another president.
If Eric Chu is wise, he’ll sit out this election and wait for 2020.
The DPP seems to have fewer obvious candidates. Tsai Ing-Wen will be the presidential candidate, of course, but who’ll be VP? I hope William Lai, but it’s possible he won’t run, and if Lai stays out, who else could VP be?
Oh, and I think Tsai will win the 2016 election, defeating the Blue candidate by a margin of 53% to 47%.
Lai Qing-de is insisting he wants to remain mayor, but we’ll see if that holds over the next few months. I could see Tsai attempting to lure a major figure from civil society in general or the Sunflowers in particular, maybe Huang Guo-Chang.
The potential KMT line-up is far more interesting. I think Chu will ignore the calls for him to run - he doesn’t strike me as the daring type - and he will push for Wang, who could help shore up support for seriously endangered KMT legislators in south/central Taiwan. Of course, Ma is still pushing to kick Wang out of the party, so the divisions that could cause may rip the party in two.
If the DPP is smart (and I remain convinced they are not ) and Wang gets kicked out of the KMT, a Tsai-Wang ticket would cross party lines and would annihilate the KMT.
However, if Tsai nominates a colorless VP from the South to placate the chauvinist male farmer base, and if Wang doesn’t get kicked out of the KMT and can win the leadership position, a Wang-Hau ticket (balancing the KMT localization faction with the New Party type of mainlanders), combined with the DPP trait to shoot itself in the foot by infighting, could lead to a KMT victory.
Wang Jin-pyng is about to turn 74. I’d be surprised if this master of the political process doesn’t use the 2016 election as a chance to step away from the game.
I don’t think Wang Jin-pyng really wants to be president. He has more power as the head of the LY because he can get his fingers into both parties. But at the same time, he’s unlikely to be able to retain his post there in 2016, so he may consider a run for the presidential office; I just don’t think blue supporters would actually get behind him in the primaries. My guess: Hau Lung-bin for pres + someone relatively less known and therefore inoffensive, like a KMT lawmaker. Hung Hsiu-chu, perhaps?
DPP will very obviously be represented by Tsai, which I think is not really in their best interests, but as long as her running mate isn’t Su Tseng-chang (I figure that’s unlikely), she has a really good shoot against Hau.
[quote=“afterspivak”]Wang Jin-pyng is about to turn 74. I’d be surprised if this master of the political process doesn’t use the 2016 election as a chance to step away from the game.
Guy[/quote]
Wang’s age is a factor. I think it would actually be wiser for him to run for vice-president, using his relatively well-respected name to help the presidential candidate. The vice-president is mainly just a fence-sitter anyway, kept around to make some nice speeches, attend ribbon-cutting ceremonies, and ready to assume office if the president unexpectedly croaks.
The big challenge for the KMT would be finding a presidential candidate who is well-known and untarnished by association with crooks. With Wang as vice-president, the KMT might be able to risk running a relatively unknown but hopefully squeaky clean presidential candidate.
But I’m not at all confident that such wisdom would prevail. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if they run Alex Tsai. Well, at least he’s “well-known.” For the DPP, he’s the gift that keeps giving.
[quote=“Hokwongwei”]I don’t think Wang Jin-pyng really wants to be president. He has more power as the head of the LY because he can get his fingers into both parties. But at the same time, he’s unlikely to be able to retain his post there in 2016, so he may consider a run for the presidential office; I just don’t think blue supporters would actually get behind him in the primaries. My guess: Hau Lung-bin for pres + someone relatively less known and therefore inoffensive, like a KMT lawmaker. Hung Hsiu-chu, perhaps?
DPP will very obviously be represented by Tsai, which I think is not really in their best interests, but as long as her running mate isn’t Su Tseng-chang (I figure that’s unlikely), she has a really good shoot against Hau.[/quote]
I’ve heard a number of people express skepticism about Tsai but have never been sure about why. Although I guess she has never won any elected position so I guess that would be a big strike against her. She never struck me as particularly magnetic or charismatic, but few Taiwanese politicians do. Just curious as to what the reservation is about her in Taiwan.
[quote=“Dog’s_Breakfast”][quote=“afterspivak”]Wang Jin-pyng is about to turn 74. I’d be surprised if this master of the political process doesn’t use the 2016 election as a chance to step away from the game.
Guy[/quote]
Wang’s age is a factor. I think it would actually be wiser for him to run for vice-president, using his relatively well-respected name to help the presidential candidate. The vice-president is mainly just a fence-sitter anyway, kept around to make some nice speeches, attend ribbon-cutting ceremonies, and ready to assume office if the president unexpectedly croaks.
The big challenge for the KMT would be finding a presidential candidate who is well-known and untarnished by association with crooks. With Wang as vice-president, the KMT might be able to risk running a relatively unknown but hopefully squeaky clean presidential candidate.[/quote]
You do know that Wang is widely seen as being very “hei”?
If Hau Lung-bin became president it would spell the end for Taiwan. The guy’s a cnt and that’s my informed political opinion. His father was a cnt too.
) and Wang gets kicked out of the KMT, a Tsai-Wang ticket would cross party lines and would annihilate the KMT.