The best chance for Taiwan's Independence

I had an interesting idea a few months ago. That is that Taiwan could declare independence during the olympics!

What do you reckon China would do? Announce that the shooting was to be moved ahead of schedule?

maybe they will do the olimpic flame throw with a balistic missile…

They are learning the shock culture with the americans, so they will surelly have a missile called YuanYuan and another called Tuantuan allready in place, and, guided using the Galileo system…

Or they can have one guy in Taiwan make a new 2008 consensus where both parties (whoever they are) assume that Taiwan is part of China, and there is only one China, because god save us if there are 2…

KMT will be on power in 2008 so that will never happen.

I don’t think there’s the equivalent of a “5-second rule” in international politics.

If Taiwan declared independence during the Olympics, I think Beijing could afford to wait a few weeks… months… decades… before doing whatever is necessary to enforce the Anti-Secession law. What were you expecting? Some part of international law that says if Taiwan can get its letterhead changed in time, then Beijing (or the UN, or the EU, or the US) is obligated to recognize Taiwan’s independence?

I don’t see any reason to be fixated on the year 2008. This issue won’t be decided by a unilateral Taiwanese/DPP decision in 2008, or 2048, or even 2088. This issue will be “decided” the moment 1.3 billion Chinese accept the outcome, favorable or not.

the 1.3 billion Chinese or the 20.000 CCP members?

:help: Yer makin’ stuff up again. The actual count of CCP members has been held at 60 million for years, with a recent decision to allow up to 80 million members.

But really, that’s neither here nor there. I think the number of Chinese and “CCP members” you personally know can be counted on one hand.

Putting 20.000 CCP members as the ones who actualy decide something is adding a lot of headcount, don’t you think?

How can you consider the CCP a dictatorship, if there are 20,000 people deciding things for the country?

I don’t really know what the above means. So, no, I guess I don’t think.

If you’re suggesting that “20,000” CCP members can single-handedly decide the future of Taiwan at this point, I’m afraid I don’t agree. A CCP government that permitted Taiwanese independence in the forseeable future would have signed its own death sentence. It would go against everything that the modern Chinese nation has stood for.

By 1976, people were very ambiguous about the value of a Communist utopia, and ready to explore with economic reforms. In the year 2006 at least, people are far less ambiguous about the value of the Chinese nation. That could change with time. But even in that case, it’d at least require the passive acceptance of 1.3 billion Chinese for Taiwan to gain independence.

I don’t really know what the above means. So, no, I guess I don’t think.

If you’re suggesting that “20,000” CCP members can single-handedly decide the future of Taiwan at this point, I’m afraid I don’t agree. A CCP government that permitted Taiwanese independence in the forseeable future would have signed its own death sentence. It would go against everything that the modern Chinese nation has stood for.

By 1976, people were very ambiguous about the value of a Communist utopia, and ready to explore with economic reforms. In the year 2006 at least, people are far less ambiguous about the value of the Chinese nation. That could change with time. But even in that case, it’d at least require the passive acceptance of 1.3 billion Chinese for Taiwan to gain independence.[/quote]
The modern Chinese nation values the Chinese version of the “White Man’s Burden”?

Wow.

Thats like so not modern.

I think that the PRC should continue the popular stance of “Reuniting all the Chinese races” (Han, etc). You know like what the Nazi’s felt about the Aryan race… …it makes it easy to alarm and disillusion Americans and Europeans from the rosy future world that you’re trying to tout.

I doubt the Han would go that route. They experience European colonialism in the 20th century. Which is why if you watch PRC entertainment they go out of their way to include all 56 minority groups in government sanctioned events.

Yes I love listening to Mongolian songs during Chinese New Years, its on my ipod. :laughing:

[quote=“cctang”]I don’t think there’s the equivalent of a “5-second rule” in international politics.

If Taiwan declared independence during the Olympics, I think Beijing could afford to wait a few weeks… months… decades… before doing whatever is necessary to enforce the Anti-Secession law. What were you expecting? Some part of international law that says if Taiwan can get its letterhead changed in time, then Beijing (or the UN, or the EU, or the US) is obligated to recognize Taiwan’s independence?

[/quote]

It worked for Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia!

After ethnic cleansing we might add… :loco:

After ethnic cleansing we might add… :loco:[/quote]
Yes but they weren’t very democratic were they?

On 2008, I won’t be surprised if the KMT goes on a killing blitz again if Taiwan declares independence. History shows that the KMT are very sore losers.

Speaking of Ethnic Cleansing, how often have the KMT rioted or caused problems after losing elections? As you’re Pan-“Purple”, a person who’d rather see the KMT or the CCP, (anyone but not the Taiwanese themselves) rule over Taiwan, don’t you think you’re being a little overboard considering you tout the group of people who tend to cause the most problems in Taiwan’s history? White Terror, 228, Martial Law, etc.

[quote=“Tyc00n”]I had an interesting idea a few months ago. That is that Taiwan could declare independence during the olympics!

What do you reckon China would do? Announce that the shooting was to be moved ahead of schedule?[/quote]

That’s brilliant! :notworthy:

I’ve always thought that things need to be done now, before the Olympics, in order to keep what leverage Taiwan has in the international community.

But to declare independence while Beijing is lighting the flame?

First off, the Olympics would be back-page news.
Secondly, what would the PRC do with the world media on a feeding frenzie in Beijing?
Thirdly, the international community would FINALLY be able to start weeding out the bullshit about Taiwan. It would be front-page news EVERYWHERE for weeks!

Now that’s a “shock & awe” I can get into!

Back to reality, though.

I agree with Shrimpcrackers. I think the pan-blues would be the ones Taiwan would have to worry about then – moreso than China. You thought March 2004 was bad?

Come on ShrimpCrack - drop it, get with the program, its a freeking lost cause… Its not going to change!

Taiwan has had enough of green terror already. Taiwanese this, Taiwanese that - its not working anymore. Think of something else for god sake!!

[quote=“phibert”]Come on ShrimpCrack - drop it, get with the program, its a freeking lost cause… Its not going to change!

Taiwan has had enough of green terror already. Taiwanese this, Taiwanese that - its not working anymore. Think of something else for god sake!![/quote]

I wouldn’t be so sure.

Ma has a mouth, you know.

You have got to be kidding me, I don’t support the KKK in the USA and I don’t support hardcore TI in the ROC, because newsflash both groups base their politics on being the majority ethnic group in their respective country.

That’s all, there is no substance to either the KKK or Hardcore TI philosophy. Just a bunch of ethnic pride.

Nothing wrong with ethnic pride mind you, but a government needs more than just that. People can’t eat ethnic pride. Ethnic pride won’t solve the Strait Issue either.

[quote=“ShrimpCrackers”]
I think that the PRC should continue the popular stance of “Reuniting all the Chinese races” (Han, etc). [/quote]
I think you should stop making up $hit like you usually do, in the absence of any real facts on the issue.

My god man, we know you can’t read Chinese… but couldn’t you at least read an English-language history book? I’m partial to some of Nathan’s writings, even though he’s not very popular in Beijing.

“Reuniting all the Chinese races”? :loco: I guess i missed when that stance was particularly popular.

Heck, you couldn’t even define the term Chinese races, so it’s probably asking a little too much for you to explain the phrase above. Not much hope, then, that you could understand the nationalist movements under both Sun’s ROC and Mao’s PRC. Are the Mongolians a Chinese race? Heck, are all the Han a Chinese race? When exactly did Mao call for a united China including Singapore, northern Vietnam, etc?

[quote=“ludahai”]
It worked for Bosnia, Croatia and Slovenia![/quote]
No, it really didn’t. It took an outside force to convince the involved members (specifically the Serbians) by force that this independence was inevitable. Thousands died in this little exercise.

I’m not delusional. I understand that the Chinese could be cowed by a similar display of force. After all, it’s happened numerous times over the past 150 years. Taiwan could very well become independent thanks to intervention by NATO/US forces.

But let’s keep in mind a statement of fact: it doesn’t matter if Taipei unilaterally declares independence tomorrow, or at the very moment Beijing lights its Olympic flame… many Taiwanese, mainland Chinese, and (most likely) Americans will have to die before the Chinese accepts Taiwan as an independent state.

Exactly as what happened when the United States won its independence, when Bosnia/Croatia won its independence, and when the Confederate States of America failed to win its independence.

goddamn ac there are more than a billion people there! if you still had one person deciding they’d be back in the iron age by now.