An important aspect of Cold War II. Let’s start with:
China is not ready for war, according to a contentious report from a US think tank, which claims the main motivation for the ruling Communist Party’s expansive push for military modernization is to retain its grip on power – not fight an overseas foe.
Beijing has pursued a head-turning military buildup under Chinese leader Xi Jinping, during which the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – previously not even one of the strongest in Asia – has started to rival, or in some categories surpass, the US military in analysts’ estimations.
Simulations by US defense experts have repeatedly shown the US – widely regarded as the world’s strongest military – having a tough time matching the PLA in a fight close to China’s shores, especially over the democratic island of Taiwan, which is claimed by Beijing.
But a report released last month by the Washington-based RAND Corp. said that despite the impressive buildup, political considerations – importantly the Communist Party’s desire for control over both military personnel and Chinese society – could hamper the PLA in battle, especially against a peer adversary such as the US.
“The PLA remains fundamentally focused on upholding Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule rather than preparing for war,” wrote Timothy Heath, a longtime China expert with RAND, in the report, titled “The Chinese military’s doubtful combat readiness.”
“China’s military modernization gains are designed first and foremost to bolster the appeal and credibility of CCP rule,” making war unlikely, Heath added.
Not really any surprises in there. Pretty much everything is something we have seen posted elsewhere, except the idea that the PLA is 100% internally focused, which the article doesn’t explicitly state and which we know not to be true.
Taiwan can’t stop the Chinese without help, best they can do is make it bloody and I am skeptical. All it would take is for president bone spurs to stay neutral (including not tanking the global economy with sanctions), and it wouldn’t even be a “war”.
Do you really think Japan will just stand by and let Taiwan get invaded?
I think if the US is clearly sitting it out, they’ll have a tough choice to make
There is a none zero chance the US stays completely out of any Taiwan conflict. The Chinese know this, hence they haven’t tried invasion.
All bets are off with Trump. Non-zero is absolute. I agree it is highly unlikely, but President Bone Spurs is famously anti-war, pro-economy, and doesn’t give-a-fuck about allies.
I think he can be convinced to sit this one out.
The PLA is almost ready, not there yet, and I think the CCP prefers a Hong Kong-style takeover that is way cheaper and more palatable to the global community. There are more reasons that a hot war hasn’t happened than just “knowing” the US will get involved.
It must be nice to live with absolute certainty. Me, I’m wading in doubts
No, sigh— they’re not. Never took you for a Henny Penny.
The US has written commitments to allies, on which he is taking a dump. All I am saying is there is more than a zero percent chance that he sees a grand bargain with China that includes Taiwanese sovereignty as worth saving the lives of hundreds to thousands of US service people (and not risking nuclear war).
This could include Chinese concessions on the Phils and Japan, and trade concessions. They can agree to anything, and then change their minds later (c.f. Trump pulling out of US deals, all over the place).
I’m not saying the sky is falling, everyone pack your bags, 100% chance he’s gonna throw Taiwan under the bus. I’m saying there is no reason to think it is impossible that he wouldn’t do to Taiwan what he is doing to everyone from Canada to Ukraine.
If you also live in absolute certainty, ok. Good for you, must be nice. I’m also a bit jealous of religious people who know without doubt how everying was made and how to live their life in order to live forever in the kingdom of Allah (or whatever flavor). Ignorance is bliss, I’m here holding in my poor brain all these annoying facts and possibilities
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Sure, there are more reasons than just the US backing of the ROC but it’s the biggest one. It wouldn’t make sense for Trump to just hand the PRC Taiwan. the global shipping lanes are too important to just give it to China.
Even if the criteria were met, it is not clear the Japanese public would permit the JSDF to respond in tandem with the U.S. military. This is a serious consideration because public opinion in Japan shows there is hesitancy to either directly or indirectly provide military support in defense of Taiwan. Though 85 percent of the public views the U.S.-Japan alliance favorably, support is much lower for assisting the U.S. military in defense of Taiwan.8 Only 40 percent support providing logistics support to the United States in noncombat zones; 27 percent support provisioning weapons or ammunition in noncombat zones; 20 percent support supplying weapons and ammunition to U.S. forces in combat zones; and a dismal 15 percent support fighting alongside U.S. forces. While the Japanese public supports government efforts to modernize and expand the JSDF, this does not necessarily mean Japan has become more willing to use military force in a Taiwan contingency.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/october/united-states-needs-japan-fight-taiwan
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China already controls the waters around Taiwan, how would it effect global shipping lanes?
I don’t see sense in lots of the things that he does
9 posts were split to a new topic: From China
Which waters? The SCS?
To get this back on topic: Chinese are a very superstitious people. Do their silly beliefs about ghosts and numerology affect their military preparedness and effectiveness? Discuss.
April it is then
or does that work the other way
or not at all because chinese calendar
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An Emirates flight from Sydney to Christchurch was directly warned by the Chinese military to avoid airspace this morning, before Chinese vessels were believed to have conducted live fire exercises
Those with any sense of world geography will realise how crazy this is.
A response to Australia’s survey over the Paracels a week ago in which the chinese dropped flares in front and above the aircraft.
Guessing a few are too busy listening to deportation ASMR and/or fantasizing how whimsical it would be to have a king (or kings!) in 2025.
But yeah, I imagine that this raised some eyebrows at the very least.