The Crowded Presidential 2024 Election Thread

He’s a real pice of shit. I like NH’s response wrt Trump. She says CNN should ask him, he should be here on stage to answer for his record, and that chaos follows him.

I think she’ll win independents from Biden, especially soccer moms.

RD came off just as badly as I thought he would. He’s Trumps mini me now. How sad. He seems to wanna make America Florida. Yeesh

Iowa attorney general announces Trump to be sued for mass infliction of pain and distress due to blowout victory. CIA “looking at all options” for dealing with Trump before he reaches White House.

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Writing is on the wall now. Watch Biden “do” a lot of “things” from now until the impending disaster at the Democratic National convention.

Hyer hyer. Trump speaks to me! :joy:

His job now is holding Trump’s balls off the floor.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/01/15/vivek_ramaswamy_ends_presidential_campaign_after_4th_place_finish_in_iowa_this_is_hard_for_me.html

Vivek Ramaswamy announced Monday that he is suspending his presidential campaign after finishing fourth in the Iowa caucus.

“We did not achieve the surprise that we wanted to deliver tonight,” he said. “So the question is what do we do that is right for our country?”

“I am very worried for our country, I think we are skating on thin ice as a nation.”

MSNBC’s Joy Reid analyzes the state of Iowa on Monday night’s caucus coverage: “We were laughing about the fact that they’re talking about electability when he’s literally lost everything he’s touched for the last four years. But I feel like the important sort of data point, and you know, Steve talks about it a lot, he’s gonna talk about it a little more tonight, is that these are white Christians. This is a state that is overrepresented by white Christians that are gonna participate in the caucuses, especially tonight.”

She’s hilarious. Now do Baltimore! Philly!

Blessing in disguise!

Back into the basement, Joe! I mean you’re only a sitting POTUS, ffs.

Picks up another workers’ endorsements.

Biden made history and joined a UAW picket line during the union’s six-week strike against Detroit automakers last year.

The General Board of the AFL-CIO—representing 60 unions and more than 12.5 million workers—voted today to endorse President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for re-election in 2024. The endorsement vote marks the earliest the AFL-CIO has ever voted to endorse in a presidential election, triggering an unprecedented mobilization that will engage millions of working people over the course of nearly 17 months on the Biden–Harris record of transforming the economy to one that works for all.

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Behind a paywall so pasting it all here.

Both Trump and President Biden would be lame ducks. Neither is a good choice. Trump because his personal blindspot, his ginormous ego, just grinds against the reserve many of us share, inherited from British roots.

In 2022 Biden neglected to include a significant increase in the military budget, inadvertantly signaling Iran and its various proxies that they were free to cause trouble this year. Biden is also absolutely shameless about the part corruption has played throughout his long career, especially selling access to foreign governments although lord knows what we’d find in Delaware.
http://tinyurl.com/mu3hsuy3

Donald Trump might be president again. What would he do? This question is a hard one because Mr. Trump doesn’t actually tell us and also because his opponents do, constantly. I had an epiphany after the 2016 Republican convention watching ABC News on a Sunday morning. Ah, I said. Mr. Trump is so disreputable that supposedly reputable journalists feel free to put words in his mouth, knowing they won’t be chastised by their fellows or employers for fabrication.

But at least the nature of the last Trump presidency is recognized in backhanded fashion. Every “Trump is Hitler/dictator/end of the world” argument starts with the premise that, this time, he won’t be thwarted by his inexperience or appointees. And indeed Trump pilot fish at a couple of think tanks have engaged in a self-pleasuring activity of making “plans” for his presidency, not unusual for the type. And yet this has nothing to do with anything.

Mr. Trump’s is a ratings-based politics. It’s not poll-based, much less policy- or ideology-based. His primary interest is in creating episodes using familiar props—NATO, the Supreme Court, Nafta—to show himself a dramatically effective actor in contrast to the established political class. If he can’t get the results he wants, as he often can’t, he hands matters back to this establishment and turns elsewhere.

His bad policies are mainly bad in a conventional, indeed overly familiar Remocrat-Depublican way. Protectionism for special interests. Spendthriftism. Sanctimonious refusal to acknowledge runaway entitlements.

But to borrow from a British prime minister, the presidency is primarily about matters that arise. Tom Friedman in the New York Times credits Mr. Trump with out-sharking Bibi Netanyahu. Mr. Trump rejected a Pentagon strike on Iran because it risked too many innocent lives. Whether true or not, Mr. Trump claims to have nonplussed Russia’s and China’s leaders by suggesting, however implausibly, he would nuke them if they engaged in aggression. They didn’t.

Banker Jamie Dimon, like 50 before him since 2015, at Davos last week urged a reconciliation of elites and Trumpism, but now in the spirit of recognizing a reality that’s come to pass. China relations have irrevocably changed. Mr. Trump uses the epithet “globalist” in every second sentence, but the globalist moment is dead, with the rise of supply-chain protectionism, with the growing national-security restraints on trade, cultural exchange and immigration.

Messrs. Biden and Trump have a lot in common, if you are not a partisan who lies to himself. They are old, beset by corruption baggage that lends suspicions to their craving for office. Ironically even more so in Mr. Biden’s case: Seeking re-election is hardly compulsory on his part, elicits no enthusiasm from fellow Democrats, and is increasingly seen as handing a winnable election to Mr. Trump.

Jan. 6 was a grotty outcome, but grotty too were Russia collusion and the Hunter Biden complications. Mitt Romney tells the Times: “As a Biden campaign theme, I think the threat to democracy pitch is a bust.” House GOPers in unsafe Biden-leaning seats have started endorsing Mr. Trump. Liberal writer Jonathan Chait, in New York magazine, frets that the urgency is leaking out of the left’s Stop Trump hysteria. He underemphasizes a reason: The public is not buying the hysteria and is unimpressed by the hysterics.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden also have in common that both would be lame ducks, important, in my mind, because of one thing that remains undone. Even as he aided Ukraine, Mr. Biden failed to seek a big, signaling increase in the Pentagon budget. If, on Oct. 7, the U.S. had been one year into a major, bipartisan rearmament I suspect Iran and its proxies would have thought differently. It’s the one policy signal that might yet preserve the peace. In his piecemealing of Ukraine, Mr. Biden is said to fear Russian escalation; the escalation he may really fear is in the salience of the world situation for the American voter, who already questions whether he’s up to the job. He doesn’t want voters thinking about war and peace in the voting booth.

In the wake of his New Hampshire surrender, most Ron DeSantis postmortems are wrong. He correctly calculated he couldn’t knock Mr. Trump out; he had to hope for Trump self-destruction or Trump fatigue to take hold among GOP voters, the opposite of which happened thanks to the Dem indictments.

Then there’s Nikki Haley—young, forceful, blessed with a steely cynicism about politics left out of many profiles. The press this week tried to make an issue out of questionable finagles by which, not having been born to wealth, but also not stooping to the means of LBJ or Mr. Biden, she finessed an income for her family when she was a part-time South Carolina legislator making $22,000 a year.

Good. She’s no Jimmy Carter. Voters have had a master class in the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump-Joe Biden era about the difference between personal virtue and political effectiveness in the world that exists.

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Culty feeling in the air again. Why can’t they just follow the typical process? Strange.

The numbers of MAGA voters in Iowa and NH were very low. I’d say that was one of the reasons.

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Especially New Hampshire, which is within easy reach of a New York media market that has dogged Trump since the 1980s. Still salty, though.

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This left/right, Trump/Biden debate between Ben Shapiro and Destiny (sounds like a female R&B artist’s name :sweat_smile:) is well worth watching. I’m not a fan of Lex Fridman, but thankfully he keeps his mouth shut here as much as possible. The two manage to remain respectful for the whole debate, and their ability to talk, extemporaneously, in such detail on so many issues is quite impressive. They both talk really fast (Destiny may be an even faster talker than Shapiro, if such a thing is possible), so they manage to cover a huge amount of material in two plus hours.

Also relevant to the new Geopolitical thread. Why? Because Biden’s reluctance to reduce the Left’s influence on his administration, which is very possibly better described as indecisiveness, parallels his reluctance/indecisiveness regarding any action on US southern border, in Iran, and in Yemen.

It all seems to fit a personal pattern that defines Biden the man.

As to the inevitable question on whether he would lose more support on the progressive left than he would gain in the center: my view is that, on this issue as one so many others, the progressive left is a paper tiger. They just don’t represent that many voters and are only able to convince people they do because they purport to represent large groups of voters like youth, Latinos, etc. They don’t. There are many more voters who the Democrats can reach in the center (including among the very demographic groups progressive leftists allege they represent) than there are likely defectors among progressives. The net for the Democrats is likely to be strongly positive. And the more decisive the action, the better the net.

So what’s likely to stop Biden? The answer is simple: the liberal college-educated voters and activists who punch so far above their weight in the Democratic Party. They are already screaming bloody murder about what Biden has said and indeed the whole general idea of getting tougher in any way at the border. …

it’s very hard for Biden to ignore these voices who both loom large in the party and strenuously resist any and all moves to the center. He’s under enormous pressure from the party’s left and “shadow party” (as John Judis and I have termed it) of activist groups, think tanks, foundations, publications and websites, big donors and prestigious intellectuals—college-educated all!—not to move in that direction. Case in point: even while Biden has been talking tougher on the border, he caved to pressure from climate activists and halted permitting on liquified natural gas (LNG) exports, a decision that makes no policy sense. This does not exactly scream independence from the party’s left and their [unending demands(Banning natural gas exports - by Matthew Yglesias) that their policies, even if unpopular and impractical, should be the Democrats’ priority.

Biden should instead heed the words of veteran Democratic pollster, Stan Greenberg, who recently wrote in an op-ed article titled “Joe Biden will have to dump the elite if he wants to beat Trump

Sounds like good advice. But to implement it, Biden needs to stop pandering to the college-educated voters and activists who don’t want him to move to the center. The stakes are high.

Why Can’t Biden Move to the Center? - by Ruy Teixeira (liberalpatriot.com)

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:clown_face: :clown_face: :clown_face: :clown_face: Almost true.

Sassafrass84 on X: “This is fantastic. The weekend at bidens. :fire::fire::fire: Omg, please run this on every channel on TV. People need to see what the walking dead looks like. https://t.co/y3Dk6W3snL” / X (twitter.com)

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The Republican primary continues to deteriorate. Trump true to form - mean and meaningless:

“Where’s her husband? Oh, he’s away. He’s away,” Trump said, appearing to imply Haley was having challenges in her marriage that would explain her husband’s absence. “What happened to her husband? Where is he? He’s gone.”

Haley answers back:

“I need to start with the fact that Donald Trump had a rally today, and in that rally, he mocked my husband’s military service,” she began.

“I have long talked about the fact that we need to have mental competency tests for anyone over the age of 75. Donald Trump claims that he would pass that — maybe he would, maybe he wouldn’t. But if you mock the service of a combat veteran, you don’t deserve a driver’s license, let alone being President of the United States.”

Nice dig:

Haley’s husband also responded with a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, showing a photo of a wolf: “The difference between humans and animals? Animals would never allow the dumbest ones to lead the pack.”

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Could be that the DOJ’s decision not to prosecute Biden for criminal acts concerning classified information, or rather the explanation of that decision (the likelihood that Biden would come off as an elderly man with fading memory skills), will flush Biden out of his basement this summer. Probably going to require far more active campaigning by Biden personally to win next November.

His confusing Mexico for Egypt at the end, coupled with his anger just minutes before are clear markers of mental decline, something familiar to many American families. I think voters are likely to demand proof of life going forward.

Sophie’s choice for the Democrats.

Theres no way forward as I see it.

The damage from the special council to Biden is he too old and decrepit to face trial, so how is he fit for president? You can’t unring that bell.

He hides in his basement like he did last time, avoids doing typical interviews like the superbowl and it confirms what everyone believes.

They try to bring him out to prove he is in fact fit and well, except he’s not and everyone knows it, that will only result in more gaffs.

Hes not popular and lagging in the polls, how do you change that?

So it seems the play is and a lot of people called it years ago and a mumber of people are calling for it now. Let him win the delegates and swap him out at the Democrat convention.

Yeah I think that Biden himself made that outcome far more likely. His last minute press conference was a disaster. Made worse by its happening just before Super Bowl weekend, a time of mass socializing in the US.

Swap him for another candidate, who is handed Biden’s delegate count, and call it a win for America. Go on as if nothing happened and hope the voters forget.

I think LBJ was the last Democrat to decline a new term, and iirc he waited until 3/31 in 1968 to do so. Replaced by Humphrey, who then lost the general to Nixon.