The End of the United Kingdom?

Politics International Politics
1

Is the Union that has existed in one form or another since the early 18th century under threat?

While I don’t share the author’s belief that the dissolution of the Union is inevitable, I do think the concept is an interesting one. Will I soon be required to trade in my UK passport for an English one? How would the Home Nations fare as independent countries? Scotland has North Sea gas which would provide a boost to the economy initially, but Wales is a net beneficiary of the Union in financial terms. With Welsh industry having been gutted in the Thatcher years I think full independence would leave the country significantly worse off than before. Would an independent Northern Ireland naturally unite with the Republic in the South as the population balance grows in favour of such a move?

Would you support the break-up of the Union?

2

Dissolution, no, for the same reasons I oppose Quebec independence. In these cases, beyond nationalism, what’s the point? I read independence movements based in well-established liberal democracy as a reaction to globalization and apparent lack of power in the face of impersonal processes. Fragmentation into ever smaller polities isn’t likely to help.

Federalism, though, does makes sense, as it combines greater regional autonomy while retaining the power and ease of coordination of membership in a larger polity.

Clinton did a good riff on this, in a direct rebuke to Quebec separatists.

[quote=“Bill Clinton: Conference on Federalism”]Before pursuing secession, said Clinton, a people should ask, “Is there an abuse of human rights? Is there a way people can get along if they come from different heritages? Are minority rights as well as majority rights respected?.. How are we going to cooperate with our neighbors; is it going to be better or worse if we are independent or if we have a federalist system?”

“If every racial and ethnic and religious group that occupies a specific piece of land” seeks independence, continued the president, “we might have 800 countries in the world… Maybe we’d have 8,000.”[/quote]

3

I also wonder how an independent Norn Iron would cope. Is there any significant industry there other than shipping? What would you say Stu?

4

I assume, as was the case with Northern Ireland that the UK is not subsiding Scotland and Wales to the extent that a breakup of the UK could result in the economy in these said places crashing.
You may say Scotland has the North Sea gas buy exactly how much of this revenue goes directly into Scotland (potential area of contention between England and Scotland if the split).
Airbus built parts of the A380 in Wales, again as a result of the British government pushing investment and jobs in the more disadvantaged areas of the UK, so there does exist some sort of cohesive economic/social policy that is not so much England-centric as was the case in the days of Thatcher.

Would the economies of these countries be able to survive? Probably, but then these separate states would be responsible for their own development, and as in Ireland’s case where it managed to get money out of the EU (for education and infrastructural development), Wales and Scotland would have to compete with the newer EU countries for grants and money. But this periphery of Europe/ ERDF fund seems to have dried up, and the EU is not throwing money out in the same way anymore. At the moment the UK has the sixth largest economy in the world, which Wales, Scotland and NI are part of.

Investment is another area, they could lower corporate tax as Ireland did, but you also need to factor in the cost of labor, which comparative to Eastern Europe is probably higher.

On Northern Ireland, the majority of people in the south of Ireland don’t want to join with NI. It may be a mistake (at this point at least) for the two parts of Ireland to join so prematurely, that’s if they wanted to join at all. Besides it is highly improbable that the consent of the majority in NI could be got (now or for years to come) to break from the UK, not to mind to go the next step to join Ireland.
But NI is kinda in a strange situation in regards to what it should do next. It is still subsidized by the UK, perhaps to a less a degree than before. It is a quasi- country or territory but has no independent representation in the EU. All money that comes from the EU goes through the books in London and then is passed to NI, as is the case with Wales and Scotland. Since it is part of the UK, it has no real independent (from the NI point of view) input into EU decisions and has to tow the line of what’s best for the UK. It therefore has no real control on what direction it can take and it can itself only push for investment within what is best for the UK as a whole

I do not think it would serve any purpose for the UK to break up, or for the provinces of the UK to become independent. If you look at the basic numbers per capita income in Wales, Scotland, England, and NI is E23K, E 27K, E 27K, E 23K, then it seems that income across all provinces seems consistent, with a higher income in England and Scotland. No doubt that an independent Wales may be able to pull off a Welsh Tiger economy if it was independent, but then it could also find that independence drags it down

5

Apart from the hugely enjoyable benefit of being able to thumb our noses at the twits in Westminster I can’t see an independent Scotland. Gas? Maybe. Enough to sustain an economy? Hard to believe. Central belt high-tech? Booming, apparently. Enough to sustain an economy? No way.
And holy christ! When you read about the antics of the MSPs in their wee pretendy government … having those numbskulls in charge of anything important? Oh, mummy! Help!

6

The whole issue is BS. You guys don’t even HAVE a king!

Now, you can borrow ours for a bit, but get your own will ya!

7

That I really do not need to see straight after lunch, JD. Play nice in the non-America/Islamic world threads now, would you?

:laughing:

I agree with sandman and TNT for the most part - apart from fulfilling nationalistic impulses and making Alex Salmond cream his pants I can’t see what Scotland (and Wales, for that matter) would get out of it. And while England may benefit financially (I say may, because it’s not really clear) it would be disadvantaged in other ways. I think the sum is greater than the parts, in this case.

8

If they want to go their own ways, then go they may and jolly good luck to them.

We’ve always had separate football and rugby teams, and in the case of our northern neighbours, separate legal and education systems, so why not go the whole hog and let them enjoy the full trappings of real nationhood.

9

Good grief! Look at Errvis! What do you call a camel toe on a man?

HG

10

[quote]What do you call a camel toe on a man?
[/quote]

Disgusting?

11

[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]Good grief! Look at Errvis! What do you call a camel toe on a man?

HG[/quote]

Challenging?

12

Ok Taffy, I read the article. How would making the UK a Federally run system be different? I don’t think it makes much sense for Ireland and Scotland to completely separate from England though…er…does it?

13

Erm, I think you mean NORTHERN Ireland, mister.

14

Erm, I think you mean NORTHERN Ireland, mister.[/quote]

Ha! Shows you what I know!

wait a minute…

15

[quote=“Taffy”]Is the Union that has existed in one form or another since the early 18th century under threat?

While I don’t share the author’s belief that the dissolution of the Union is inevitable, I do think the concept is an interesting one. Will I soon be required to trade in my UK passport for an English one? How would the Home Nations fare as independent countries? Scotland has North Sea gas which would provide a boost to the economy initially, but Wales is a net beneficiary of the Union in financial terms. With Welsh industry having been gutted in the Thatcher years I think full independence would leave the country significantly worse off than before. Would an independent Northern Ireland naturally unite with the Republic in the South as the population balance grows in favour of such a move?

Would you support the break-up of the Union?[/quote]

The Times they are a-Changing

                       (Yes, it's what you think it is.)

                 Come on you young brethren and listen to me

                And pledge that your country stays loyal and free

                   And step proudly forth each 12th of July

                 And let Dublin know now that Ulster wont die

                               (chorus)

               And if you love your country you'll stand up and cry

                     That the times they are a-changing.

             For the people in Dublin with their gold,white and green

             They don't want the border, they don't want the Queen

                 But the Queen and the border we'll never deny

                 We'll fight to defend them and Ulster wont die.

                                chorus

               Now Armagh and Antrim Londonderry and Down

               Tyronne and Fermanagh remain true to the crown

                They remember Lord Carson, his famous reply

                 No home rule for Ireland and Ulster wont die.

                                chorus

               For the red hand of Ulster, the red white and blue

                 are the symbols of freedom for me and for you

              let your watchword be courage, let the union jack fly

                  for we wont surrender and Ulster wont die.
16

I’m waiting for someone to educate me on this situation/topic.

Who are the good guys?
Who are the bad guys?

Are there cowboys?

17

[quote=“jdsmith”]I’m waiting for someone to educate me on this situation/topic.

Who are the good guys?
Who are the bad guys?

Are there cowboys?[/quote]

Maybe some cowboys.

Basically the Protestants want to stay in the union. Most Protestants live in the North as they were nearly all ethnically cleansed in the south (they were known as Anglo Irish).

The catholics have lots of kids and the Protestants don’t. The catholics are the majority in the south and will also soon be the majority in the north as they breed faster lol. When that happens the north may unite with the south, although from what I hear the south doesn’t want it anyway roflmao

The above is in reference to the Irish/British thing.

As for Scotland. Well have to agree with sandman here. There is no way, even with north sea oil that Scotland could have the same standards of living they enjoy today without being a part of the union.

As for Wales well ask David Beckham as he owns half of it!

18

That may be true for all I know, but would you kindly provide a source?

There are no provinces in the United Kingdom except for part of Ulster.

There is a higher proportion of protestants in the north of Ireland but not for the reason you stated. It’s because a long time ago the English encouraged Scottish protestants to settle in Ulster to help them control the rebellious Ulstermen. The English rewarded the protestants for their loyalty with land and other privileges.

19

Does that mean everyone stops speaking English?

20

Then they’d have to change the name of the UK to “The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, but not Scotland.”

For Northern Ireland, someone suggested to me (and apparently this is too sensible to be politically possible) that the outlying, Catholic-majority counties of NI be allowed to join the Irish Republic, leaving Ulster proper as an independent, Protestant-majority city-state. This resembles the reasoning of Israelis who insist on preserving Israel “as a Jewish state” (and now all American politicians have to repeat that phrase).

Ulster Protestants actually got there from Scotland, no? But I doubt that an independent Scotland would be interested in remaining involved. Relations between Scotland and England should benefit from the fact that they haven’t been killing each other in recent memory. Seriously, I don’t see any significant problem with a “velvet divorce” since they’re all reasonable people, and both the successor states would presumably remain within the EU.

Another interesting question would be that of regionalism and “devolution” within England itself.