# The Geopolitical Foreplay to WW3 Thread! **URL:** \ **Category:** International Politics\ **Created:** [January 29, 2024, 2:50am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373 "2024-01-29T02:50:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Mr\_PBH](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/mr_pbh/32/230938_2.png) [@Mr\_PBH](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/Mr_PBH)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 8:30am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/21 "2024-01-29T08:30:32Z")
> [@cdn1234](#): > > By the post-USSR period, the bipolar order was pretty thoroughly on the way out. Thus, it becomes less of a natural assumption that Ukraine must be absorbed into the Eastern bloc; the logic that sacrificing Ukraine to maintain a comfortable balance of power in Europe no longer carries nescessity as Europe has began to emerge as a power bloc independent of the United States. It is worth considering that the Ukranians generally did desire NATO membership, and clearly with pretty good reason - most of the other formerly Soviet Bloc states have too joined. Were the Baltic states not NATO members, should we just sacrifice them to preserve peace with the has-been great power of Russia? Nuclear power truly no longer does equate to great power. I would like to add here this: Ukraine gave up its nukes with the understanding that if big Red ever tried any shit, their backs would be protected. Ukraine, rich in minerals and oil and whatnot, became a favored piggybank of the west. That said, they gave up their nukes. They don’t rate a NATO membership due to their vast corruption. But, if we cut the tether, who will trust us ever again? It’s a good thread to mention things like why North Korea will _never_ give up its Nukes. Not after Libya and not after Ukraine. I don’t know how to say “Fuck that,” in Korean, but I bet Little Kim does. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_PBH](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/mr_pbh/32/230938_2.png) [@Mr\_PBH](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/Mr_PBH)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 8:53am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/22 "2024-01-29T08:53:37Z")
I like geopolitical lectures, broad, like this one and surgical like others. Isn’t Bremmer is a favorite of mine. I like how he adds the apolitical side of bacon to the plate. The algorithm. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/uiUPD-z9DTg/maxresdefault.jpg "The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiUPD-z9DTg) ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_PBH](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/mr_pbh/32/230938_2.png) [@Mr\_PBH](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/Mr_PBH)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 11:07pm UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/23 "2024-01-29T23:07:48Z")
So, Italy should get a mention. They’re building up their army and recently sent their Navy to the South Pacific, cut back ties with China and vociferously back Ukraine. > In an unprecedented move in the spring of 2023, Italy sent the[aircraft carrier _Cavour_](https://decode39.com/6143/cavour-carrier-indo-pacific-italy/) and its accompanying flotilla into the South Pacific, an unmistakable show of closer alignment with the U.S. stance on Chinese claim to hegemony in the region. The carrier headed to Japan to brandish strong ties (including joint production of the F-35 fighter) with an alarmed—and[rearming](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/japan-s-bet-on-hard-power)—Japan. In 2023, Italy[upgraded its relations](https://decode39.com/5479/italy-and-japan-elevate-relations-to-strategic-partnership/) with Japan to the “strategic” level during a visit of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Rome. It did the same with[India](https://decode39.com/8171/india-bolsters-strategic-partnership-italy-fm-jaishankar/) during an exchange of high-level visits. In October, a second representative office of the Taiwan government[opened](https://decode39.com/8038/taipei-representative-office-milan/) in Milan in a ceremony attended by the Taiwanese Foreign Minister. > After signaling for months that it would not renew its agreement to be part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, Rome[officially withdrew](https://www.csis.org/analysis/italy-withdraws-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative) in December 2023. Expected gains in trade and investment within this framework had not materialized. As the only G-7 country to have joined, Italy’s position was discordant with both the United States and the EU. Instead, the Meloni government has indicated that it will work to “revitalize” its[longstanding strategic partnership](https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/italy-wants-to-exit-the-belt-and-road-but-without-curbing-ties-with-china/) with China. [Italy Steps Up: Janus in the New World | The National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/italy-steps-janus-new-world-208920) ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_PBH](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/mr_pbh/32/230938_2.png) [@Mr\_PBH](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/Mr_PBH)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 2:00pm UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/24 "2024-01-30T14:00:57Z")
[Vietnam, Philippines seal deals on South China Sea security (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vietnam-philippines-seal-deals-on-south-china-sea-security/ar-BB1hsK80?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=c59756dd1bdf4832b05656eeed2eb870&ei=40) ---
**Author:** ![snowstorm](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/s/47e85d/32.png) [@snowstorm](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/snowstorm)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 12:37am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/25 "2024-01-31T00:37:28Z")
> [@hansioux](#): > > It is created by the US funneling money into China without checking it’s authoritarian, imperial, and antagonistic agendas for the past 40 years The U.S. and China were on the brink of nuclear war throughout the 50’s-60’s. The U.S. was facing Mao Zedong, a man willing sacrifice hundreds of millions of his own people in order to win. The U.S. agreed a better path would be to evolve the policy into “engagement”. In this way, by the U.S. establishing official relations with Beijing, trade status, and eventually bringing China into the World Trade Organization, the U.S. had hoped that the codependency of the U.S. and China on this underlying structure would be enough to deter both countries from going to war. Unfortunately China continued to use proxies to wage total war on the U.S. Now the U.S. policy is “Containment”. The underlying economic and trade structures we spent decades putting in place to prevent confrontation now have little leverage over China. So my point is, the U.S. still funneled millions into China, knowing the risks, but calculating it is a better path forward than the alternative. It’s not that the U.S. made some huge mistake - it was calculated. > [@hansioux](#): > > US also neglected to commit to electoral reform, meaningful healthcare reform, and tax reform to create a fairer society. Now this is an excellent point. The U.S. stagnated in many areas, including infrastructure. Now most infrastructure is aged and needs to be replaced - monumental backlog of work that needs to be done. ---
**Author:** ![hansioux](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/hansioux/32/253648_2.png) [@hansioux](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/hansioux)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 1:20am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/26 "2024-01-31T01:20:10Z")
> [@snowstorm](#): > > the U.S. had hoped that the codependency of the U.S. and China on this underlying structure would be enough to deter both countries from going to war. I’m fine with that part. Although when it became clear that China is not going to allow free speech despite growing significantly in economic power and gaining a middle class, the US should have checked Beijing and force them to back off. The first time they should have done that was after the Tiananmen, and the second time was after China built the great firewall of China, and starts forcing US companies to give up user data. Instead the US continues to deepen the codependency, to the point that any economic containment would be hurting the US equally as bad. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_PBH](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/mr_pbh/32/230938_2.png) [@Mr\_PBH](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/Mr_PBH)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 4:21am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/27 "2024-01-31T04:21:26Z")
> [@Mr\_PBH](#): > > Isn’t Bremmer is a favorite of mine. I like how he adds the apolitical side of bacon to the plate. The algorithm More on that. > **[How Big Tech Makes the U.S. a Spying Superpower](https://www.notus.org/technology/big-tech-fisa-702-american-spying-superpower)** > > The intelligence community says FISA Section 702 is key to surveilling terrorists. In reality, with the help of the tech industry, the American government is spying on a lot more than its enemies. [https://insidexpress.com/technology/the-atlantic-exploring-the-emergence-of-technoauthoritarianism/](https://insidexpress.com/technology/the-atlantic-exploring-the-emergence-of-technoauthoritarianism/) Uh oh, now the algorithm knows I know! :runaway: ---
**Author:** ![snowstorm](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/s/47e85d/32.png) [@snowstorm](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/snowstorm)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 3:04am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/28 "2024-01-29T03:04:08Z")
> [@Russia vs. Ukraine 2024](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/russia-vs-ukraine-2024/236519/54): > > advocating for full on WWIII. We’re already 4+ years into WWIII, China started it in ~October 2019. - 14 Trillion in economic damage in U.S., trillions more to the world - 7 Million+ Dead World Wide - 700 Million Casualties World Wide ---
**Author:** ![Mick](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/mick/32/66311_2.png) [@Mick](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/Mick)\ **Post date:** [January 29, 2024, 3:08am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/29 "2024-01-29T03:08:16Z")
> [@Russia vs. Ukraine 2024](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/russia-vs-ukraine-2024/236519/54): > > > [@Russia vs. Ukraine 2024](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/russia-vs-ukraine-2024/236519/54): > > > > advocating for full on WWIII. > > We’re already 4+ years into WWIII, China started it in ~October 2019. OK, you mean the intentional release of the Coronvirus by China. As you know I entertain more than one possibility with regards the Coronavirus but am familiar with your logic so no need to repeat. I would also agree any intentional release by anyone would indeed be considered an act of war. ---
**Author:** ![cake](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/cake/32/199931_2.png) [@cake](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/cake)\ **Post date:** [January 30, 2024, 10:47pm UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/30 "2024-01-30T22:47:31Z")
> [@snowstorm](#): > > - 14 Trillion in economic damage in U.S., trillions more to the world > - 7 Million+ Dead World Wide > - 700 Million Casualties World Wide Total bull. China did not lock down the west or shaft the economies. Most deaths were from something else, with ‘covid’ added to the death certificates. 700 million casualties - not from something that had a 99.6% survival rate. ---
**Author:** ![FairComment](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@FairComment](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/FairComment)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 3:51am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/31 "2024-01-31T03:51:26Z")
> [@snowstorm](#): > > 14 Trillion in economic damage in U.S., trillions more to the world It’s OT, but what actually happened is detailed in other threads. The trillions just got transferred from the masses to the already wealthy: > **[The richest 1% of people amassed almost two-thirds of new wealth created in...](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/16/richest-1percent-amassed-almost-two-thirds-of-new-wealth-created-since-2020-oxfam.html)** > > Since 2020, the richest 1% of people have accumulated close to two-thirds of all new wealth created around the world, according to a new report from Oxfam. > **[How Much Money America’s Billionaires Have Made During The Covid-19 Pandemic](https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2021/04/30/american-billionaires-have-gotten-12-trillion-richer-during-the-pandemic/?sh=320104c2f557)** > > Surging markets have been especially good to the richest people in the country. ---
**Author:** ![snowstorm](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/s/47e85d/32.png) [@snowstorm](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/snowstorm)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 10:48am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/32 "2024-01-31T10:48:56Z")
Recommended viewing: Watch as Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee forecast the China relationship at a key date in 1997, and analyze the different approaches we can take — “engagement” vs “containment”. Winston Lord and others give a chilling and informative testimony which is still relevant today. “This is going to be our most important and most complex foreign policy challenge…not only in Asia…but in the World, for the next few decades” -Winston Lord The Future of China: [https://www.c-span.org/video/?79770-1/future-china](https://www.c-span.org/video/?79770-1/future-china) ---
**Author:** ![DrewC](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/drewc/32/224499_2.png) [@DrewC](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/DrewC)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 11:20pm UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/33 "2024-01-31T23:20:38Z")
> **[China Says Trump May Abandon Taiwan](https://time.com/6590369/china-says-trump-abandon-taiwan-election/)** > > China intends to sow doubt over Washington’s commitment to the island. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_PBH](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/mr_pbh/32/230938_2.png) [@Mr\_PBH](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/Mr_PBH)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 3:30am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/34 "2024-02-01T03:30:53Z")
[https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/us-economy-2024-gdp-g7-nations](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/us-economy-2024-gdp-g7-nations) US economy looks good. No surprise there. ---
**Author:** ![bojack](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/bojack/32/11772_2.png) [@bojack](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/bojack)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 5:13am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/35 "2024-02-01T05:13:13Z")
> [@Mr\_PBH](#): > > US economy looks good. No surprise there. I reckon it’s likely to stay strong for twenty years (at least), unless the American left manages finally to murder the domestic gas and oil industry and strangle nuclear in its crib. No doubt they’ll give it their best shot. This assumes that an emerging American supply-chain foreign policy remains paramount in the medium- to long-term. Rebuilding an Americas-dominated supply chain should keep employment rates strong for the next ~10 years. China will struggle to procure carbon energy in the near term (no way a Russia-China alliance can build out a pipeline within the next fifteen years), and be forced to adjust. Their goal should probably be to become a net exporter of energy by 2035 if they want to catch up by 2040. ---
**Author:** ![hansioux](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/hansioux/32/253648_2.png) [@hansioux](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/hansioux)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 5:18am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/36 "2024-02-01T05:18:07Z")
> [@Mr\_PBH](#): > > US economy looks good. From Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, most high tech companies in the US have or are in the midst of laying off 20% of their employees. If the economy looks good, it looks good on paper only. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_PBH](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/mr_pbh/32/230938_2.png) [@Mr\_PBH](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/Mr_PBH)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 5:19am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/37 "2024-02-01T05:19:17Z")
There’s nothing wrong with companies adjusting to reality. Jobs come jobs go. It’s like saying recession are bad. Are they? ---
**Author:** ![bojack](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/bojack/32/11772_2.png) [@bojack](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/bojack)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 5:23am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/38 "2024-02-01T05:23:05Z")
> [@hansioux](#): > > From Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, most high tech companies in the US have or are in the midst of laying off 20% of their employees. If the economy looks good, it looks good on paper only. I just read something in WSJ last week that many, if not most, laid-off tech workers are finding jobs in-house within companies trying to build out their own software systems, basically in-house enterprise resource systems. I’ll see if I can’t find the article later today. ---
**Author:** ![hansioux](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/user_avatar/tw.forumosa.com/hansioux/32/253648_2.png) [@hansioux](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/hansioux)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 5:23am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/39 "2024-02-01T05:23:18Z")
> [@Mr\_PBH](#): > > There’s nothing wrong with companies adjusting to reality. If a few companies in different fields are laying off 20% of people when the situation calls for it in a spread out fashion, there’s nothing significant going on. If a vast majority of companies in the same sector are all doing this within 6 months, I think it’s pretty unusual. ---
**Author:** ![MikeN1](https://forumosa-12829.kxcdn.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/m/e19adc/32.png) [@MikeN1](https://tw.forumosa.com/u/MikeN1)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 5:28am UTC](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373/40 "2024-02-01T05:28:19Z")
> [@bojack](#): > > I reckon it’s likely to stay strong for twenty years (at least), unless the American left Right, thank God Trump is currently president > [@hansioux](#): > > If the economy looks good, it looks good on paper only. People write numbers on paper; how does it work? [Previous page](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373.md?page=1) [Next page](https://tw.forumosa.com/t/the-geopolitical-foreplay-to-ww3-thread/237373.md?page=3)