The Post-Pelosi Chinese Aggression Thread

I had to ask how many times to get the answer? You could just say that next time.

Pelosi is a politician: that’s who I meant. Great statement in Wapo though!

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I think Pelosi is a very flawed politician. But Taiwan needs to take the wins it can get.

Yes, it was worth it. You nailed it.

Feel free to hop on the next plane out though.

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They’ve got their wires crossed

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Not wise to ignore them, but at the same time not wise to let them dictate Taiwan’s foreign policy, deciding who can’t and can’t visit and when. When it comes to that point, might as well just give up and become an SAR.

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I tend to prefer not rocking the boat without good reason. Of course, there are problems with that. There aren’t any clear paths to long term positive outcomes IMO, so your way may be better.

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Lengthy read, but should be read.

The final mystery of the Taiwan Strait is that a Democratic administration is on a collision course that its predecessor would never have risked. True, Trump’s administration did a great deal that upset Beijing, not least imposing the tariffs that the Biden administration can’t seem to lift.
But would Trump have gone to the brink of war over Taiwan? According to former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s memoir, Trump liked to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, “This is Taiwan,” then point to the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and say, “This is China.”
“Taiwan is like two feet from China,” Trump told one Republican senator. “We are 8,000 miles away. If they invade, there isn’t a f***ing thing we can do about it.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-29/pelosi-s-taiwan-trip-would-anger-china-and-may-trigger-trump-prophecy?srnd=premium

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Huh weird, I just checked that one and it had a TW flag on it.

I imagine that’d be a pretty steep decline, since the plane has to make it over some mountains and then the airport’s right underneath them.

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One more:

China has been disconcerted by successful efforts on the part of the Biden administration to reinvigorate and enhance US alliance structures in the Indo-Pacific region, notably the Quad arrangement linking India, Japan, Australia and the US, and the AUKUS agreement to supply Australia with nuclear submarines. And it perceives a growing level of US and western support for Taiwan begun under the Trump administration as tantamount to a hollowing out of the One-China Policy which encourages Taiwan in its defiance of China’s wishes, the most recent example of which is a mooted visit by outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in early August.

At the same time China believes in its mantra of western decline and doubts whether the US and its allies have the stomach for a fight. For now, it is likely to continue to grind Taiwan down through what have been characterised as grey-zone operations: military overflights and naval patrols, cyber attacks and espionage. And to push back diplomatically within the Indo-Pacific region against US coalition-building.

At the same time it is likely that as CIA Director William Burns has observed, China will have drawn one lesson from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. If a tipping point is reached at which China concludes peaceful reunification is no longer an option, a military strike will have to be massive and overwhelming. The aim will be to have the operation done and dusted before the US and its allies can mount a meaningful response.

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Thats the best taiwan can do really . what else option it has? reject US?

I don’t think I’m knowledgeable enough about foreign relations to take a side on this. But my lizard brain says screw the CCP, and my dad-brain says why unnecessarily stir the pot.

On this, both brains agree.

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If I remember right, it’s questionable that he said this.

I imagine the sentiment was there.

Listening to this now:
https://www.cato.org/multimedia/power-problems/restraint-coalition-strategy-toward-china

Boston University’s Joshua Shifrinson weighs in on a new critique of the restraint school in U.S. foreign policy debates and explains why the strategy proposed by some liberal internationalists to confront a rising China — a strategy he terms “neo‐​primacy” — is bound to fail.

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I wouldn’t trust anything in Bolton’s book.

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Given what’s come out of the 1/6 book report, I wouldn’t say it’s not somewhat accurate. Trump’s mouthy dismissals seem to be second nature.

She also staged the hug-a-chinese-person-a-thon” to protest the fact that some people were critical of China because Covid-19 started in China and the CCP lied about it.

I don’t get why there are people asking why Pelosi is in Taiwan. China has been making threats to the US maintaining the status quo since the status was quoed. They made threats against weapons sells too. Should the US hold off selling Taiwan weapons as well? The more the US backs down because of these threats, the more it signals China it is ok to start a war and advance towards the second island chain. As the leader of the house, Pelosi’s the perfect candidate to make the visit.

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