Why does it seem to be the only US officials that come here are the ones everyone hate? Newton, Cruz, Pelosi etc.
And the ones that extreme people idolize didn’t do shit. ahem every president with a cult fofollowing.
Papa Trudeau was cool with cuba despite their ally saying tisk tiskand russia blah blah. why not Taiwan when now no ally is saying no and Baby Trudeau keeps trying to show everyone how woke, progressive and pro freedom he is.
It is sitting on one of the tallest mountains in Hsinchu, with air defense missile array and auto canons protecting it. It is linked with US and Japanese intelligence. There are American technicians stationed at the Pave Paw radar station.
But Taiwan was also endangered on Ike’s watch, and he seems to have handled that situation differently (whatever his reasons might have been, and whatever a current-day opinion might be of his approach):
Unpopular opinion: In case China invades and it becomes clear that Western powers, including the US will not directly intervene militarily, but just dither around and utter some ‘strong condemnations’ or perhaps airdrop a bunch of weapons, Taiwan should turn around on a dime hand over all TMSC factories to the Chinese in mint condition to show some goodwill for a reunification.
Taiwan should act in the interest of the Taiwanese people and that means to guarantee their survival in the first place. What would be the point of an extended war against overwhelming force that will only result in major civilian casualties in Taiwan and - without the immediate and direct involvement of the US forces - has no chance of success. Its still going to suck for the Taiwanese people, but at least they survive.
My Taiwanese inlaws make the impression that they have no agency in any of this, so they resign to being mere observers … these are no warriors, nor any of the other Taiwanese I know personally.
As far as the loss of TSMC to the Chinese goes, well thats the price the West has to pay for its inaction in that scenario.
The Chinese would laugh and spit on that “good will.” Then ask you for some more, seize all your assets, and “re-educate” you in a camp anyway.
Let’s say the reunification is relatively “peaceful” (no matter what, they’ll still execute everyone in higher posts of government, especially DPP but probably a few of the more sane, less collaborative elements of KMT)… China will still break the morale and spirit of the Taiwanese until they’re a beaten down people. They’ll take their assets, send them to camps, probably kidnap their children to re-educate them like what Russia is doing to Ukrainian kids, and generally abuse them. It will make what North Vietnam did to South Vietnam look like a happy family reunion by comparison.
That said, I don’t want to be stuck in a hot war either. Sometimes you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t. If anyone wishes to leave, I think they have until 2024 at the latest (but even that timeline might be too generous considering the rapid escalation of the last week).
Story about Taiwan and trip was 2 days first page news on all European national channels with very negative comments towards China. I got questions from acquaintances either war is about to start. An old drinking buddy from Spain had clicked me on messenger after 5 years to ask me this. Is a huge propaganda victory for USA & Taiwan
Finally someone got it. Chinese are direct, primitive and Chinese strategy is very straightforward. While West has always been very sophisticated, I believe Biden and his team are waaay smarter than it appears. They purposely withdraw from Afghanistan caotically, allow oil price to be high to trick Putin into war, war he can not win.
Usa prefer to fight in Ukraine with Russia over fighting Chinese in Taiwan. War will bankrupt Russia, while West will be armed to teeth. Germany itself will spent 100 billions fresh money on military. We got Finland & Sweden in NATO.
Whole Pelosi trip looks like it was solo play. An old politician, who want to make it to media before retire for good. Have more deep thoughts, I believe it was very well plan at CIA.
It is easier to sell public further sunctions, tarrifs against China now.
That’s right. There are three unintended consequences
Taiwanese population is now emotionally charged and soon will become really angry and militarize.
US-China rivalry is now officially out in the open and US public sentiment for China now is no longer accommodating and reconciliatory like in the 90s where US was in the mood for magnanimity.
Taiwan is internationalized and world opinion can no longer pretend Taiwan does not exist. For or against Taiwan, people now have an opinion and politicians are forced to heed the opinions instead of delegating it to the Kissingers.
(No.2 and are No.3 are not my original ideas but by Japanese journalist/pundit Akio Yaita)
Japan remilitarizes, there is no other choice.
In the best scenario, an Arm race and Cold War 3
The good folks at those thinktanks particularly CSIS Brookings need to catch up on the analysis instead of brooding over how Pelosi wouldn’t listen to their advice and arguing how they have more insight into Chinese thinking than anybody else. They forgot that National Interests trump “bilateral relations”, not the other way around. A lot of them have lost sight of that and think that “bilateral relations” is the highest governing principle, understandably so because they make a career in “managing bilateral relations.”
This is the first time I’ve really had Europeans take interest and ask about the situation. Before the visit, there were some that felt US was being reckless. But the way China handled it has basically got most European news against them even though most of us from Taiwan know that this isn’t new although certainly more escalated then usual. They don’t get too much coverage of China Taiwan issue over here.
Without revealing too much, I have some working experience in the industry. The idea above is akin to a homeless breaks into a house and starts baking cakes for himself . But the idea is so ridiculously ill-informed. The more realistic analogy is similar to pickpocketing an iPhone only to find out the OS is locked into stolen mode over the air. Now you have a brick only good for spare parts.
That’s not how I meant it. In my obviously very hypothetical scenario, it’s more like a change in executive management so it affects primarily where the manufactured chips will be delivered to, that is wherever the ccp wants them. The collaborating highly specialized workers will be handsomely rewarded by them and their families not being deported to the gulags.