[i]"Commentary: Investors may want to weather-proof
By Craig Stephen
Last update: 6:00 p.m. EST Feb. 3, 2008
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) – As the weather in China sends investors and the general population diving for cover, watch out for opportunities in the big chill.
Blame it on the weather. That would seem the obvious response to the chaos in China as the country grinds to a halt under the worst freeze and snow in 50 years
Last reports said 18 million hectares of arable land has been damaged by the freeze so casualties amongst agricultural producers and some of the favored agricultural stocks look likely. I received a broker tip that China Yuran was a solid bet as its pig business escaped price controls and surely faces tremendous demand. But how many of these little piggies will get to market? Reports say pigs are fast dropping dead in the cold snap. Food importers look like a better bet for now, especially those with big stockpiles of staples such as wheat and rice.
Sitting back until things have thawed over the Lunar New Year could be the safest course of action. But for long-term investors, if we substitute blood on the streets with 800,000 Chinese on a train platform we could have similar chaos. Anyone who was brave enough to buy during SARS in Hong Kong did very well. Many H-share commodity stocks in Hong Kong are now down a staggering 60% from their peaks – which may yet look a bargain six months from now."[/i]
Interesting that while the author raises Katrina in the context of the snow storms, he doesn’t mention the bleedin’ obvious, which is how darned better the Chinese governemnt performed in response compared to lil’ Bushie and Katrina.
Sorry if that offends your sensibilities there, TC, but it is quite an interesting point, and one which should be telescoped out to an investment consideration. Far better indeed than mispelling stock names and talking incredulous tales. That should be China Yurun, not China Yuran, and I doubt anybody has been offering it as a brokers’ tip, given pork prices have remained tenaciously high and it’s not a beneficiary of dying pigs, it’s a clear loser. The “story” regarding China Yurun is that it has greater ability to maintain supplies, albeit at higher cost.
HGC -
Doesn’t offend a fuckin thing to me. Its an article about China, the friggin’ snow storm and its effect on the market investments there.
I didn’t write this piece so if you have a quibble with spelling direct those thoughts to the author.
Best of luck to you and your portfolio.
China’s big chill seems to be ending, and folks in HK have probably already made their move on stocks which came off due to the bad weather. What I would like to know, are what are longer term plays on china --either bullish, or bearish? Jimmy Rogers book offers up a bunch of bullish ones.
I don’t mean to be all negative towards China, Chinese New Year and all, but I have a feeling some or a lot of those dead pigs (from the cold) are still going to end up on the dinner table.
So this is a short term play? Hong Kong didnt have beef for one day, but supply is back.
What about long term? If China really tanks will that also drag down the taiex even more? Taiwan didnt benefit much from China on the upswing and some folks worry that Taiwan will also be hit when China corrects.
frozen pork is also nice to cut for sukiyaki, so you wanna bet them shipping them like that to Japan… although they have to send it up north, Hokkaido or Niigata…
…cheap (natural) refrigeration…ingenuity in action…got lemons? make lemonade and sell it!
