The Trump Presidency 2.0

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One thing that struck me from that video, is the relatively low number of chinese students in the US, 260,000 vs Australia 150,000… Australia only has a population of 26 million compared to USA of 340 million… if the US had the same rate of Chinese students that Australia has they would have 1.96 million Chinese students. 260,000 seems ridiculously low for the US.

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Tariffs on Chinese goods now UP TO 245%.

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Australia is closer, and cheaper, and more welcoming for Chinese, and it used to be easier to get citizenship but I think that’s closed now

Some years ago Australia also made international students more of a priority, they invested in getting the students in and making them happy. Again, I don’t think they do that as much any more, but they laid a foundation years before anyone else

Most of the academic literature I used for my doctorate was from the UK and Australia, Canada and the US were far less interested in that kind of work (not exactly international students, but tangentially relevant)

Anyone wanna take a stab at the difference between retaliatory tariffs and reciprocal tariffs?

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Oh that still happens, there were chartered flights during covid to bring the students back to Australia. There has been a reduction in the allowed international student numbers… but it is still a priority.

China said it will no longer respond as trade is essentially cut

China may not even allow electronics to leave China if it gets to that

But they won’t do that I think

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I’ve heard that as well. They will ignore any further tariffs increases as they are meaningless at this point.

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I think China takes the long view and will ship whatever it can to the USA while it continues to seek other markets for its good . It is not stupid. They will also hold off on imports as much as they can and do some highly visual buys like soybean from brazil. And other visible things like halting boeing jets and the like. Until Trump is willing to talk sensibly about tariffs.

People were wondering how is trump going to achieve his campaign promises and lower taxes??Well the stable genius thought of a ā€œbrilliant planā€ TARIFFS will give the US govt money to do that. Of course the joke is on JOE BUYER in the USA who is having to shell out much more moolah than his tax breaks are going to help.

Trump thinks tariffs are paid for by the seller…WRONG …WRONG…WRONG AGAIN. its paid for by the ultimate buyer of the goods…JOE BUYER

Singlehandedly Trump is destroying the WTO. Which seeks to aim for as little tariff as possible. And monopoly . Taiwan was forced to lower most of its tariffs when it joined the WTO as well as stop the monopoly of alchohol production by the TAiwan MOnopoly Bureau.

Trump is destroying all the work done by the WTO in making trade more free around the world. Trump wants to set up nation by nation tariffs and agreements . Well the world of trade has indeed changed.

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Soybean from Brazil has been going on for a while now. China will target Trump voters, that’s for sure.

Trump wants to replace income taxes with tariffs. It’s looney tunes (I’m trying not to label his ideas as ā€œbatshit crazyā€ every time).

Can tariffs replace the income tax?

Simply put, no. Tariffs are levied on imported goods, which totaled $3.1 trillion in 2023. The income tax is levied on incomes, which exceed $20 trillion

; the US government raises about $2 trillion in individual and corporate income taxes

at present. It is literally impossible for tariffs to fully replace income taxes. Tariff rates would have to be implausibly high on such a small base of imports to replace the income tax, and as tax rates rose, the base itself would shrink as imports fall, making Trump’s $2 trillion goal unattainable.

A recent Peterson Institute policy brief calculated that revenues from Trump’s 10 percent/60 percent tariff proposals would total about $225 billion per year in current dollars. This figure is certainly an overestimate because it does not account for lower economic growth due to the inevitable economic shocks caused by retaliation against US exporters and the losses suffered by the import-dependent manufacturing sector. Exporters would also be hit by an appreciating dollar, as discussed below.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/can-trump-replace-income-taxes-tariffs

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What other markets? It already exports to the world at large.

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Reminds me of this…

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Pretty much, yup
https://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/trump-motivation/?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=topic%2Fdonaldtrump

Link is paywalled. Is there an archived version available?

Those sites are easy enough to use, no?

Mine was paywalled? Shouldn’t be. But yeah, you can go ahead and archive it pretty easily…

Yeah, I scroll down for the story and the paywall popped up for me.

I was able to get the gist of the story before it popped up for the third time. Seems to be a timed pop-up.

Oh, I first read it through Flipboard, maybe that’s why there was no paywall for me. Anyways, if you don’t know how to archive stuff, that’s useful to get more information…

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well US exports are around 15pct of total so thats a small round up to distribute to all the other countries China exports to already , plus they can now perhaps lower the prices and export to markets yet undeveloped. African countries perhaps, with lower prices? Maybe china govt subsidized as they continue to curry favor with African countries perhaps?