The undermining Pan Blue polls

Politics Taiwan Politics
#1

Okay my friends. I’ll start a new thread to commemorate the last day of the publication of polls.

I’ll follow up here on any new information so that none of you guys will be susceptible to the trickery of the pan blue polls that just want to undermine the righteous DPP party and the righteous foreigners that support them who know what real democracy is!

Now just for the record, please remember for everyone’s sake that just because it’s against ROC law that polls cannot be published legally within the last 10 days of an election, that does not mean they are not done. They are done everyday up until the last day and they are not published until after the election. That does not mean they don’t exist or can’t be trusted, etc.

Therefore, as soon as I get the poll the last day of the election from a pan blue source, I will post it here with as much detail as possible so that all of you will know just how distorted they are. If it says the KMT will win by 1 million ballots, that means the DPP has the election in the bag for sure because the pan blue polls always lie! Only the publicized DPP poll that says the election is close (even if it isn’t) tell the truth!

Right now, polls say that Ma is ahead any where from 3-8% not counting the undecided voters which favor the DPP slightly. The DPP poll center says Tsai is winning by a little bit. You guys can believe that since the DPP never lies!

Remember what the pan blue polls said in 2005 for the municipal elections? They said the KMT was leading in most counties and cities and were slated for a big victory. The ever objective Taipei Times and DPP mouth pieces said that polls can’t be trusted because they weren’t right in the past, so why keep looking at them. The DPP has their own polls that say the election is very close! I remember Taipei Times had an interesting political cartoon about pan blue polls and their support rate. The polls indicated huge support for the pan blue camp, but their actual support rate was very weak. It was deception! Just people fooling themselves!

Okay… and then the elections happened in the KMT won like 15 out of 20 cities and counties by a total margin of around 57-43 or something if you count the independents as more pan blue.

I should have saved that political cartoon, because it seems like DPP talking heads have selective memory. I mean if the pan blue polls are so distorted and inaccurate or whatever, then why are they right sometimes and no one says a word after the election? And what about the Taiwan Foundation which is just a front for the REAL DPP poll that always says the election is close no matter what it really is? How come the credibility of that poll is not called into question?

So for the sake of making the truth absolutely clear to the fine folks here at Forumosa who love their Taipei Times links that tell them what they want to hear, I will go out on a limb and post what the poll is here before the ballots are cast so all of you guys can have your beliefs confirmed which is that the pan blue polls are here to trick you all! Don’t fall for it everyone!

#2

You mean politicians are not being up front about the results of polls! Oh the horror! What an incredible discovery!

#3

[color=#408000]MODERATOR’S NOTE: PLEASE ADDRESS THE ISSUE AND NOT THE PERSONALITY OF OTHER POSTERS.
[/color]

#4

.

#5

Politicians are not upfront about polls when they don’t favor them. It’s true that no one wants to say they are going to lose. In this case, Ma isn’t saying much about the polls, the DPP is saying the race is closer than it really is, and Soong is saying the polls are fake because what else would he say?

#6

It would amaze me how any party which has stooped to such low levels as the KMT in this campaign could get any votes at all. It says something for the average Taiwanese mentality.

#7

Why would any voter turn to a political party for polling results? In more mature democracies independent pollsters dominate the political discourse. This place, however, still has the smell of a one-party state.

#8

[color=#408040]MODERATOR’S NOTE: PLEASE ADDRESS THE ISSUE AND NOT THE PERSONALITY OF OTHER POSTERS.[/color]

#9

I may be wrong here, but I have just watched this on the news.
The KMT has just announced that any survey company which shows the KMT losing in the polls will be banned from sharing this information publicly.
Is this true? Anyone else heard of this?

#10

The law is that no one can publish a poll within 10 days of the election to prevent manipulation of the election. Of course the law can still be broken if it suits the interest of the President.

Lee Tung-Hui as KMT chairman broke this law in 2000 by asking Ma Ying-Jeou and current Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu by showing a KMT poll to the public that showed Lien in the lead. This poll of course was fake as Lien was well behind in 3rd place with only 23% of the vote. The manipulation helped DPP candidate Chen Shui-Bian win by misleading pan blue voters into voting for Lien instead of Soong.

I haven’t heard of the KMT banning the publication of any poll that says they are losing.

The DPP uses the Taiwan Foundation poll or whatever its called to publicize its public poll which is usually different from its internal poll. So yes, its not officially called the DPP poll, but among people who know the real source of the polls, its known that the Taiwan Foundation poll is essentially the publicized DPP poll. You can call it either way, but its the same thing.

#11

#12

[quote=“Betelnut”]Okay my friends. I’ll start a new thread to commemorate the last day of the publication of polls.

I’ll follow up here on any new information so that none of you guys will be susceptible to the trickery of the pan blue polls that just want to undermine the righteous DPP party and the righteous foreigners that support them who know what real democracy is!

Now just for the record, please remember for everyone’s sake that just because it’s against ROC law that polls cannot be published legally within the last 10 days of an election, that does not mean they are not done. They are done everyday up until the last day and they are not published until after the election. That does not mean they don’t exist or can’t be trusted, etc.

Therefore, as soon as I get the poll the last day of the election from a pan blue source, I will post it here with as much detail as possible so that all of you will know just how distorted they are. If it says the KMT will win by 1 million ballots, that means the DPP has the election in the bag for sure because the pan blue polls always lie! Only the publicized DPP poll that says the election is close (even if it isn’t) tell the truth!

Right now, polls say that Ma is ahead any where from 3-8% not counting the undecided voters which favor the DPP slightly. The DPP poll center says Tsai is winning by a little bit. You guys can believe that since the DPP never lies!

Remember what the pan blue polls said in 2005 for the municipal elections? They said the KMT was leading in most counties and cities and were slated for a big victory. The ever objective Taipei Times and DPP mouth pieces said that polls can’t be trusted because they weren’t right in the past, so why keep looking at them. The DPP has their own polls that say the election is very close! I remember Taipei Times had an interesting political cartoon about pan blue polls and their support rate. The polls indicated huge support for the pan blue camp, but their actual support rate was very weak. It was deception! Just people fooling themselves!

Okay… and then the elections happened in the KMT won like 15 out of 20 cities and counties by a total margin of around 57-43 or something if you count the independents as more pan blue.

I should have saved that political cartoon, because it seems like DPP talking heads have selective memory. I mean if the pan blue polls are so distorted and inaccurate or whatever, then why are they right sometimes and no one says a word after the election? And what about the Taiwan Foundation which is just a front for the REAL DPP poll that always says the election is close no matter what it really is? How come the credibility of that poll is not called into question?

So for the sake of making the truth absolutely clear to the fine folks here at Forumosa who love their Taipei Times links that tell them what they want to hear, I will go out on a limb and post what the poll is here before the ballots are cast so all of you guys can have your beliefs confirmed which is that the pan blue polls are here to trick you all! Don’t fall for it everyone![/quote]

If you consider that the DPP faked an assasination attempt on Chen Shui Bian to win the elections, this poll incident (if true at all) is hardly worth mentioning.

#13

[quote=“Taixinomee”]

If you consider that the DPP faked an assassination attempt on Chen Shui Bian to win the elections, this poll incident (if true at all) is hardly worth mentioning.[/quote]

That would certainly be true if they had faked it. The trouble is, that has never been proven.

#14

these guys are the ones who punch, shove, pull hair and throw shoes at each other when they meat…half of them are pen wielding gangsters in suits. I mean, really, in fairness what do we expect? blue and green are about as straight as a circle. Leaking polls, lying about popularity…absolutely useless and damn near expected, there are bigger worries that these crooks should be checked for.

#15

[quote=“Betelnut”]The law is that no one can publish a poll within 10 days of the election to prevent manipulation of the election. Of course the law can still be broken if it suits the interest of the President.

Lee Tung-Hui as KMT chairman broke this law in 2000 by asking Ma Ying-Jeou and current Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu by showing a KMT poll to the public that showed Lien in the lead. This poll of course was fake as Lien was well behind in 3rd place with only 23% of the vote. The manipulation helped DPP candidate Chen Shui-Bian win by misleading pan blue voters into voting for Lien instead of Soong.

I haven’t heard of the KMT banning the publication of any poll that says they are losing.

The DPP uses the Taiwan Foundation poll or whatever its called to publicize its public poll which is usually different from its internal poll. So yes, its not officially called the DPP poll, but among people who know the real source of the polls, its known that the Taiwan Foundation poll is essentially the publicized DPP poll. You can call it either way, but its the same thing.[/quote]

Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. And yes…its DPP dressed up as “not DPP”. Like i’ve said in another thread though, the internal polling guys has some problems with their methodology but after correcting for that, it’s either still a slight lead to Tsai or too close to call. I’m optimistic though, generally the polling is right…though polls did show that DPP was going to sweep the Mayoral. (We’re blaming the shooting for the slight losses. Otherwise Mayoral was a good performance)

This has actually been discussed quite a bit. The straight answer i got from most people is that Taiwanese people like that their legislators are so loyal and hardworking and are fighting so hard for them that they’re willing to get their fists up. That’s one of the reason why such behavior continues…because its beneficial politically. That said, if you’re looking for gangsters you should look into the local elections and parties. Usually national legislators are all the usual politico types. (Except a few)

#16

Fellas, the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy fund poll in 2004 was fake like literally everyday and even moved in the wrong direction as events unfolded. i.e. events supposed to hurt CSB (Shen Fu-Hsiung tells the truth about campaign donations) helped his support and events supposed to help him (getting shot) hurts his chances. It always says the election is close even when it is not. I remember their poll said the 2005 Taipei County election was close and Chou Hsi-Wei won by about 190,000 ballots or whatever it was.

There’s many cases where that poll is revealed as being clearly false. In the last election, the DPP never led in New Taipei City, Taipei City, or Taichung while the KMT never led in Kaohsiung and Tainan. The polls basically predicted exactly what happened but the Sean Lien shooting gave the DPP an excuse to say that it was all because of the impact of that although in my opinion, it really only helped the KMT in Taipei City. The KMT didn’t win by much in Taichung and New Taipei City, but they were ahead in the first place anyway. So what’s with all the whining about the Sean Lien shooting? An incident like that (real or fake) is only significant if it changes the result of the election from a loss to a win which a fair amount of the population in Taiwan believes about the '04 presidential election although the incident itself only closed the gap, but did not actually win the election for Chen.

If someone has access to the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy Poll (publicized DPP poll), then please post it the day of the election as of the last night of the election and we’ll compare it to the so-called pan blue polls and the actual result.

[quote=“Szu”][quote=“Betelnut”]The law is that no one can publish a poll within 10 days of the election to prevent manipulation of the election. Of course the law can still be broken if it suits the interest of the President.

Lee Tung-Hui as KMT chairman broke this law in 2000 by asking Ma Ying-Jeou and current Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu by showing a KMT poll to the public that showed Lien in the lead. This poll of course was fake as Lien was well behind in 3rd place with only 23% of the vote. The manipulation helped DPP candidate Chen Shui-Bian win by misleading pan blue voters into voting for Lien instead of Soong.

I haven’t heard of the KMT banning the publication of any poll that says they are losing.

The DPP uses the Taiwan Foundation poll or whatever its called to publicize its public poll which is usually different from its internal poll. So yes, its not officially called the DPP poll, but among people who know the real source of the polls, its known that the Taiwan Foundation poll is essentially the publicized DPP poll. You can call it either way, but its the same thing.[/quote]

Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. And yes…its DPP dressed up as “not DPP”. Like I’ve said in another thread though, the internal polling guys has some problems with their methodology but after correcting for that, it’s either still a slight lead to Tsai or too close to call. I’m optimistic though, generally the polling is right…though polls did show that DPP was going to sweep the Mayoral. (We’re blaming the shooting for the slight losses. Otherwise Mayoral was a good performance)

This has actually been discussed quite a bit. The straight answer i got from most people is that Taiwanese people like that their legislators are so loyal and hardworking and are fighting so hard for them that they’re willing to get their fists up. That’s one of the reason why such behavior continues…because its beneficial politically. That said, if you’re looking for gangsters you should look into the local elections and parties. Usually national legislators are all the usual politico types. (Except a few)[/quote]

#17

[quote=“Betelnut”]Fellas, the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy fund poll in 2004 was fake like literally everyday and even moved in the wrong direction as events unfolded. i.e. events supposed to hurt CSB (Shen Fu-Hsiung tells the truth about campaign donations) helped his support and events supposed to help him (getting shot) hurts his chances. It always says the election is close even when it is not. I remember their poll said the 2005 Taipei County election was close and Chou Hsi-Wei won by about 190,000 ballots or whatever it was.

There’s many cases where that poll is revealed as being clearly false. In the last election, the DPP never led in New Taipei City, Taipei City, or Taichung while the KMT never led in Kaohsiung and Tainan. The polls basically predicted exactly what happened but the Sean Lien shooting gave the DPP an excuse to say that it was all because of the impact of that although in my opinion, it really only helped the KMT in Taipei City. The KMT didn’t win by much in Taichung and New Taipei City, but they were ahead in the first place anyway. So what’s with all the whining about the Sean Lien shooting? An incident like that (real or fake) is only significant if it changes the result of the election from a loss to a win which a fair amount of the population in Taiwan believes about the '04 presidential election although the incident itself only closed the gap, but did not actually win the election for Chen.

If someone has access to the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy Poll (publicized DPP poll), then please post it the day of the election as of the last night of the election and we’ll compare it to the so-called pan blue polls and the actual result.

[/quote]

Taipei City was a real downer because all expectations were revised after the polls revealed that the margin was too close to call. This in a place that is traditionally a KMT stronghold. Furthermore, it was raining (if i remember correctly) before polling day…and the logic around HQ was that since it’s raining then those old KMT supporters probably won’t go out to vote. But then late night, we heard about the shooting and everything changed. What was supposed to be a razor-thin DPP win turned out to be a defeat because all the old people got up to go outside in the rain to vote because of Sean Lien.

#18

Seriously, Taipei City may have been close at times, but by the end of the race, Hau was ahead and the shooting incident did not change the outcome of the race. That was the only race that the KMT won convincingly. It was either going to be Hau wins by a little bit, or he wins by a little bit more. Sean Lien was not running for Taipei City Mayor, so it was not the equivalent of Chen getting “shot” in '04. Using that incident as a reason for the election results coming out pretty much the way it was expected is a very common saying in the green camp to make it seem like it was all because of that.

I really hope there is no incident tonight that appears to favor Ma because I really don’t want to hear about it as an excuse for the election result if Ma wins as expected.

[quote=“Szu”][quote=“Betelnut”]Fellas, the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy fund poll in 2004 was fake like literally everyday and even moved in the wrong direction as events unfolded. i.e. events supposed to hurt CSB (Shen Fu-Hsiung tells the truth about campaign donations) helped his support and events supposed to help him (getting shot) hurts his chances. It always says the election is close even when it is not. I remember their poll said the 2005 Taipei County election was close and Chou Hsi-Wei won by about 190,000 ballots or whatever it was.

There’s many cases where that poll is revealed as being clearly false. In the last election, the DPP never led in New Taipei City, Taipei City, or Taichung while the KMT never led in Kaohsiung and Tainan. The polls basically predicted exactly what happened but the Sean Lien shooting gave the DPP an excuse to say that it was all because of the impact of that although in my opinion, it really only helped the KMT in Taipei City. The KMT didn’t win by much in Taichung and New Taipei City, but they were ahead in the first place anyway. So what’s with all the whining about the Sean Lien shooting? An incident like that (real or fake) is only significant if it changes the result of the election from a loss to a win which a fair amount of the population in Taiwan believes about the '04 presidential election although the incident itself only closed the gap, but did not actually win the election for Chen.

If someone has access to the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy Poll (publicized DPP poll), then please post it the day of the election as of the last night of the election and we’ll compare it to the so-called pan blue polls and the actual result.

[/quote]

Taipei City was a real downer because all expectations were revised after the polls revealed that the margin was too close to call. This in a place that is traditionally a KMT stronghold. Furthermore, it was raining (if i remember correctly) before polling day…and the logic around HQ was that since it’s raining then those old KMT supporters probably won’t go out to vote. But then late night, we heard about the shooting and everything changed. What was supposed to be a razor-thin DPP win turned out to be a defeat because all the old people got up to go outside in the rain to vote because of Sean Lien.[/quote]

#19

Okay everyone. According to a so-called pan blue poll that you should not believe because it’s designed to undermine the DPP’s chances of victory, the poll as of last night is as follows:

Ma 49%
Tsai 46%
Soong 5%

This is approximately a 340,000 win for Ma and the voting rate is expected to be 78.2%.

The CEC said the voting rate should be over 80% this morning though.

Can someone post the Taiwan Democracy Foundation Poll as of last night, so that we can make some academic comparisons?

#20

.