The World is Dangerously Dependent on Taiwan for Semiconductors

Yea! Taiwan’s time to shine and leverage! Make Taiwan independent and you’ll never have to be dependent on an increasingly totalitarian China.


I know, this is a political discussion.

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Dangerously dependent yet still all treat Taiwan like crap. Isn’t that funny?


Should I invest in TSM now do you think? Thinking about it…I know I am a little late to the game here if I do.


My comment on this:

Don’t think it is fair/wise to leverage TSMC supply for political or other gain.

Not really. “Dangerously dependent” is the pretext for sovereign pushes for diversification.

Long-term, Taiwan needs to prepare for a day when TSMC might no longer be a geopolitical defense asset.

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Taiwan is dangerously dependent on this one industry.


If you measure Taiwan’s economic complexity it would be high.

Semiconductors grew 5x the whole economy. The rest of the IT sector grew about the same as the entire economy. It’s easy to know why; China can make just about everything else.

All the other industries Abian tried to develop were destroyed by Samsung: DRAM, display panels, phones.

Hell, that could be short - mid term; if they miss on execution on 1 or 2 generations of chips, they’d instantly be behind - like intel, but worse, as intel has their own chips rather than being a fab.

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Yeah and it’s too early to count Intel out.

No guarantee Intel will be successful in turning itself around but with the right approach and a little help from Congress, it’s in the realm of possibility.

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TSMC is already about two generations ahead of firms such as Intel. And they are still investing more than anybody else.


Why do they need help from Congress? Why not their other American competitors?

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I say yes

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Because “national security.” The coming decade is likely going to see a lot of government involvement in private industry on this basis. All around the world.

Not speaking to whether this is good policy or not, but the writing is on the wall.

They’ll cost a lot of other US jobs with AMD and other American semiconductor companies by creating a monopoly with Intel. It shouldn’t be at the expense of AMD and other companies.

I didn’t suggest Congress would try to create a monopoly. But it will likely promote domestic producers and domestic production.

I understand that, however, Intel commands an extremely near-monopolistic lead already in many high-value-added markets outside gaming.

From what I can find, in 2020 intel spent $10B more per year than tsmc in r&d, and about $3B less in capital? They’re not afraid to invest.