Time for Taiwan to go nuclear?


China wants to fuck around in the asian pacific? Korea, Japan, and Taiwan should become nuclear. The only thing holding them back is the US, but the US has to be realistic about their military support with China growing.


Japan and SK both have the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella and both have the capacity to develop their own nukes within six months.

Taiwan, has neither.

I don’t think SK or Japan would launch a nuke for us and get dragged in.

Tsai has the mandate of the people. She should turn the reactors back on. Taiwan needs to stop being so shortsighted and take its defense seriously.

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i agree Taiwan should have its own nuclear weapons as a deterrent. its the clumsiness of the local military i fear more :slight_smile:

And then by “accident” fire one of them. Uhm… no Thank you.

Yes, Taiwan needs nuclear weapons. It was sad that a traitor stopped Taiwan becoming nuclear back in the 60s, I think.

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It was the US that stopped Taiwan from going nuclear. Basically the US promises to protect Taiwan (I mean sell Taiwan overpriced useless weapons) if we gave up nuclear program.

Yes, agreed.

Historically, no country that possessed nuclear weapons has ever been “regime-changed”. There were a few close calls such as Israel and the Yom Kippur war, but American indifference to the annihilation of Israel by invading Arab armies became oh-so-great concern after the Israelis started making preparations for using nuclear weapons.

It has been noted that Taiwan developing nuclear weapons would be a trigger for a Chinese invasion, as well as loss of support from the Americans (the latter of which, history has shown, are very highly reliable)

For Taiwan to be able to safely attain nuclear deterrence, is has to somehow develop the warheads and delivery mechanisms in secret, perform a nuclear test and then declare itself to be a nuclear weapons state. Can we assume hermetic secrecy of a Taiwanese nuclear program? Even one whisper in the wrong place may set off war.

The other option of course is to somehow acquire nuclear warheads and delivery systems from a friendly country, but this is probably unlikely.

Another option is for Taiwan to acquire HEU or plutonium, because this is its biggest hurdle to breakout to nuclear weapons capability. I believe Taiwan’s indigenous military technology base is sufficiently capable of developing warhead miniaturization and delivery mechanisms in parallel and in short order, and up to a point either of the latter developments are plausibly deniable as solely for a nuclear weapons program.

Also, if Taiwan did successfully develop nuclear weapons secretly, it may wish to still remain ambiguous about their existence. The reason being the outcome of a Taiwanese nuclear test would be unpredictable to calculate.

Being ambiguous or not declaring your nuclear capabilities keeps the status quo, while knowing privately that you are a quantum leap safer from invasion by possessing an arsenal of nuclear warheads.

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Taiwan already has a nuclear option and it’s semi-camouflaged in red, white, and blue. And quote a few other colors take your pick.

The Ukrainian War and a bit of back history is perhaps relevant here, specifically the Budapest Memorandum.

TL;DR - the USA, Russia and UK provided security guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for them surrendering their nuclear warheads and becoming a non-nuclear state.

History of course has shown that the Russians then invaded Ukraine, and the USA/UK have helped but avoided direct conflict with the Russians.

Do you really think the USA will risk nuclear war with China over Taiwan?

It would be much more in American interests to let the Chinese Dragon bleed over Taiwan by providing Taiwan with indirect support. Very much like they are letting the Russian Bear bleed in Ukraine by being cheerleaders and not direct stakeholders in a conflict with a nuclear power.

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Uh yeah, news flash, we’ve been doing it since the 1950’s or the Chinese would be here long ago. Nuclear weapon or no nuclear weapon.

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Give the nukes to Japan. They’re the only one who could handle the responsibility. 23 million people shouldn’t decide the fate of Asia when they still park trucks on train tracks. :grimacing: :grimacing:

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