Tom Clancy takes on Taiwan = scenarios please

In reply to BigJohns comments about creating scenarios between Taiwan and China conflict

  • Mainland China, the government is losing mandate for strict control of the provinces after a prolonged depression and a new breed of provincial governments start popular free elections. Needs to recover by promoting nationalist ideas, decides to take on the Taiwan question with a blockade of the island and launching missiles over the island.

Taiwan fights back by mining the entire Taiwan strait. Meanwhile many city residents tell their farmers cousins to start planting extra rice and taro quick!

Pakistan meltdown continues. US negotiates with China, and Pakistan Military for China to take Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal instead. Negotiation’s include CIA initiative to discredit all Taiwan independence politics and politicians including the utter humiliation of CSB family and associates. US back-down on any pro democracy support for Taiwan and support for China expansion in pacific including Spratly Islands and southern Japanese archipelago islands allowing for segway of Taiwan into a commonwealth with Mainland China.

US pounds Taliban into non existence, China assassinates North Korean President and makes move on nuclear arsenal of North Korea, India invades Pakistan and conventional warfare ensues. India wins and extends influence through Afghanistan to Iran securing its realm.

Dude, what’s that got to do with Taiwan vs China.

Ok, here’s step 2.

China gets pissed and fires a few missiles into air bases around Taiwan.

The PLA launch an attack on Taiwan. The ROC defense forces fragment, with Taibazi regiments putting up a spirited defense, and Gau Gi WSR units surrendering as soon as the first bullet whizzes past their heads. Formosan aborigine-dominated marine commandoes cut up brainwashed PLA drones into soft tofu, while Chinese commandoes butcher thousands in Taipei in a decapitation strike that takes more than one cut. In the end, Taiwan’s defense forces surrender, under a senior general who says he’s doing it to save lifes but later becomes a senior player in the new government.

While serching for something else, I read this puzzling item: that China banned The Departed because it was mentioned the use of nuclear weapons against Taiwan…

Or at least, these guys hit any of the nuclear plants and we’re history.

Save local resources, you say? Which ones? I mean, which ones they can use? It is cheaper to destroy than to keep this can of worms.

However, they will need a place to run to when the people of China get tired of serving teh new Emperors…

By the way, I have the book China Attack -the fiction one, not the military analysis one. No Clancy, but it is interesting that the failure to take over Taiwan -a move initiated by a burocrat for his own advancement- leads to the fall of the CCP.

Basically the limiting factor in any fight is the deterrent factor, which side really wants to stand up at all cost. There is no lack of things that could become WMD in Taiwan. The weak point for Taiwan is that not many leaders look like they would push it all the way and I guess Taiwanese wouldn’t push for it either, although they would pretty much go along with anything they are told.


Not if you’re a frog in a well, Fox.

Visiting PRC official visits temple in Tainan. DPP supporters and reporters back him up.
One protestor climbs atop the official’s car and stomps on its roof.

After that, everybody starts Kung Fu fighting.

Taiwan destroys the Three Gorges Dam and cripples the Chinese economy for years to come.
Millions of Chinese die.

I don’t think you even have to jump for scenarios with this one, the usual issues plus a catalyst are all you need:

U.S. finds a president whose interests are primarily business and is fascinated with China’s potential. Beijing manages to cozy up nice and close to him and he drops hints that with Iraq and Afghanistan and Somali Pirates and North Korea the U.S. military really does’t want to get involved in another conflict. Meanwhile Ma’s popularity drops leading to the election of a rabidly green candidate who pushes for a declaration of independence. China starts their posturing and Taiwan postures back, China ships get a little too close to Taiwan and firing ensues, war quickly escalates…

When China threatens Taiwan, Harrison Ford tries to get up but is held back by his colostomy bag, which is full.

This is widely seen as a metaphor for the collapse of the American Empire.

With US in its weaken chaotic state. Taiwan mounts a liberation campaign in Orange County, California to free their Taiwanese brothers and sisters from the oppressive Austrian run government.

Is there a scenario in which Taiwan becomes independent without a war? I always say that Taiwan should have declared independence the week before the China olympics started. The Chinese would lose great face and it would seem unlikely they would launch a bunch of rockets on civilians with the whole world watching.

So why didn’t CSB enact this fool proof plan to de jure independence?

Seems water tight to me…

Could it be that the DPP leaders don’t really want de jure independence? And have grander plans of soliticating for political donations instead?

Bus load of Chinese tourists goes off a mountain road, Taiwanese authorities bungle the rescue & recovery efforts, and rubber necking sensationalist media vultures turn the tragedy into a major fiasco. Not long after, it’s revealed that a couple killed in the accident were closely related to senior CCP party officials. China goes apeshit, demands an accounting for the accident and bungled efforts afterward: demands that Taiwan allow in Chinese transportation safety inspectors… a major jurisdictional issue.

Meanwhile, Ma’s pinned down by an economy that remains in the toilet, low approval ratings, and the KMT old guard who continue to view him as an incompetent populist simpleton.

The US, unwilling or unable to shore up a rapidly folding Ma administration, is unwilling to issue a blank cheque. The pedestrian Franz Ferdinand episode proves sufficient to allow Beijing to drive a wedge between Taiwan’s de facto independence and hopes of achieving de jure independence. The advance guard of Beijing’s new regime proves to be gov’t functionaries; not a shot is fired.

China attacks. Destruction on a grand scale. Not safe to go outside. It’s just me and A-Mei and a few of her sisters hunkered down in a basement. Luckily we have plenty of food and several nice soft beds to ride out the siege. It may be weeks.

Economic and social inestability in China + internal power struggle +
North Korea power struggle =

North Korean incursion/bombardement of nearby areas, South Korea, Japan, who ever in in the way…

US military already streched out + UN hesitation =
let the boys play

China “calms down” Korea + receives world acclaim +
Japan and US support (in exchange for a piece of the pie developing North Korea, wow, imagine the riches, cheap labor, undeveloped country, sell all thanks to limitless money laundering) =

China takes over Taiwan

INTERNAL: (a lot easier)
Big voting fraud + social inestability (due to mounting workers dissatisfaction) + violent repression a la Thai style =

China invades Taiwan (backed up by own legislation)

US and rest of the world does not interfere because they cannot interfere in China’s internal affairs. Not enough support in UN -c’me on, they cannot intervene in Zimbawe, Somalia, etc… why would they do it here?! Info courtain drawn -no news in or out. Taiwan miracle ceases to exist, not with a bang, but with a whimper. What you don’t know… won’t hurt us.

The year is 2017.

Taiwan uncovers several undercover agents from Beijing who have successfully infiltrated the Taipei police and corrupted the force. Taiwan counters by unifying with Tibet and declaring mutual independence from China. China gets pissed and flexes its muscles and bombs Kinmen Island and eventually annexes Kinmen.

Taiwan declares war on China and asks for U.S. support. The U.S., still fighting the war on drugs, is lacking the necessary financial resources to back Taiwan. Therefore the U.S. asks China for a loan. In a respectful reply from Beijing, the Chinese people “regretfully inform” the U.S. that they are “unable to provide a loan at this time due to current outbreak of Pulmonary Weevils in SE Asia.”

Then North Korea tries to steal the spotlight by nuking Japan…but ends up exterminating Homo sapiens sapiens.

US economy collapses from overwhelming debts. Economies of the world fall one by one. Taiwan’s economy collapses from lack of export. Mainland, flushed with money, offered to pay Taiwan’s debt by allowing her to join a Chinese Union. US transfer possession of Hawaii to Mainland as payment for her debt. A depopulated Russia collapses and Siberia, which is full of Chinese anyway, joins the Chinese Union.