This record run is what scares me. It has been going for the past 8 years. This correction is going to be…ugly.
Its only politics that Trump would take full credit. If he can keep it going, with the GOP firmly (for now) in power, then he can take some credit. Even Bush can take some credit, but Obama deserves credit for feeding it and keeping it going.
This manufacturing miracle he speaks of, I have no faith in that. It would lead to a trade war, and I do not see how his supporters could be for it, he being a free-market capitalist and all. I mean, government tariffs on goods? Sounds like one step from a command economy to me.
“Other nations do it, why shouldn’t we?” they will say. Other nations (ie, Germany) have health insurance and huge social net for their citizens, why shouldn’t we?
Even in times of Obama, I take jobs reports with a grain of salt. States scream “we added 100 jobs!” What about wages? Wages have lagged behind inflation for the past 20 years.
He tends to get things done pretty well when Congress isn’t involved. But the narrative they’re pushing is it’s his fault if Congress doesn’t do their job.
Which might even be valid… if it turns out he can bring pressure on them somehow. And if he can, what will the critics say then?
If Trump isn’t “getting anything going” in terms of legislation, it is because Congress if filled with government-class interests and not that of the people. Trump is the executive anyhow, and in that arena, he’s doing wonderful. I normally agree that economy needs at least a year or two for results to be pegged definitely. But as president, he has rolled away so much of Obama’s restrictive regulations, that the economy has no choice but to roar away. That makes total sense.
But in the macroview, I hope to see more interest rate hikes for long-term sustainable economic welfare.
What restrictive regulation? From your statement, it could be read that the US economy was in the proverbial shitter until Jan 20, 2017 then it instantly came to life? For the past 8 years, all that government reporting of jobs and employment, and economic growth has been just “fake news”?
No, he inherited an economy that was moving upward and forward. He inherited a trend. But that is OK. I know how the right media works. Its all Trumps game, but when the inevitable correction hits, and it will, then its all Obama’s fault.
All Trump has managed to do so far is ride a wave of jingoism, and to use the office to do what he can to sell his brand. Which is illegal, by the way.
Unemployment is a result of low interest rates, since 2004. The country isn’t producing wealth, and when that happens, it doesn’t justify hiring people at good wages until we can produce again and have the wherewithal to reward people for their labor that is meeting real demand. Low interest rates distorts all this. What you are describing here are the ramifications of this.
This is one of the greatest achievements he’s done in the first 100 days. Identifying and rolling back regulations that effectively prevent companies from hiring more people.
Obama is the first US president to never see even one quarter of 3% growth. It was staggering along. Even Carter had. I believe Trump is doing many good things on the microeconomic level, lowering taxes, rolling away restrictions. Some of his protectionism talk scares me a bit, but the big thing in my mind is macroeconomics, the interest rates. If we don’t see 4 or 5% normal interest rates soon, even his microeconomic advantages could be vitiated. Under Reagan, on the other hand, we saw interest rate hikes up to 21% before we killed inflation and stabilized the economy, which ran strong all the way through the 90s under Clinton. The roaring 20’s too was a result of raising interest rates precipitately in 1921 under President Harding.
Wages began declining in 2000, and 0% interest rates were brought in in 2002 to try and boost the economy after 9/11. The economy changed, and real wages will never uptick on their own again.
In the right media, Fox et al, there was a lot of talk of unemployed choosing to live on unemployment benefits, instead of finding work. Since unemployment payments are based on previous income, going instantly from $50k+/yr to $20k/yr -and losing the home and car that you previously could afford, and all your savings gone trying to keep up, yeah…staying on unemployment let you keep your house, at least till the bank just automatically foreclosed on you.
Production, on any meaningful scale, has moved out for good. Some may poke up here and there, but it will not be anything meaningful. And once automation takes over, forget it. See, the idea behind overseas manufacturing was that it was good for the US economy because it allowed innovation. That gave us the dot-com boom of the late 90s. Well, that gave us outsourcing. Again, we were sold on the idea of outsourcing to keep our innovative spirit up. But, the energy bubble, and 9/11 happened. The mood changed. The economy refocused to real estate. In 2007, that imploded and a year later, the new energy bubble burst. So, the focus is now on service, and if there is one sector that is susceptible to automation, it is the service sector.
The president needs to discuss matters with his cabinet in strategy and secrecy, this has been since Washington. This is under the executive branch. The legislative branch is a more open affair, as they are making our laws. The Executive consult as how best to implement the laws.
Yes, you keep talking about bubbles. In economics, those are periods when there is either too much money printed, or low interest rates, and causes a superficial uptick in economic activity, but in fact, it makes the market less efficient, and production slows, and therefore wages decline, unemployment may begin to rear its ugly head. Many people blame bubbles on capitalism, but it is always government that causes such. Presidents Jefferson and Jackson saw such bubbles and eliminated the 1st and 2nd US National Banks because of such distortions. During Obama, the Fed never raised interest rates. They only started raising them in December and March, and hopefully more to come, but very small increments. Too small.
Allowing mentally impaired persons, on social security, buy weapons. That’ll bring those jobs back.
Easing the restrictions on where mining companies can dump their waste. N-I-M-B-Y, huh? I cannot remember who said it, but I guess the phrase “You can have jobs, or you can have clean air and water. You cannot have both.” was right.
Forcing energy companies, that receive federal subsidies, to disclose their financials…what is wrong with that? So…companies should be allowed to break the law? Growth at any expense?
“Fair Pay and Safe Workplaces” rule…lets give taxpayer monies to companies who discriminate and don’t pay their employees. Because, hey, who needs money?
I can go on and on through this…all I am getting is any regulation that tries to protect the workers, their families, their health, and protects taxpayers is somehow…bad.
Why does he just stop there? Why not role back every single regulation from the past 100 years?