Me? I’m not Ukrainian. In hindsight it looks like it would have been better if they’d capitulated on joining Nato. They weren’t to know that the US would abandon them at the time though so it’s not their fault. But we can very clearly see that’s what would happen with Taiwan, so it should make it easier for us to avoid the same mistake.
What about if Ukraine wanted to join the EU…obviously was more to it than that.
You think if Ukraine were like, ok, no NATO, that would’ve been enough for a peace deal? Seriously?
1 Like
Have you got a better idea?
Just read an article in German. Intel’s 18A is utter failure.
Edit:
Here Reuters article https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/intels-new-ceo-explores-big-shift-chip-manufacturing-business-2025-07-02/
[!quote] AI summary
- 18A flops with external clients: Intel’s much-hyped 18A manufacturing node has found no takers outside the company itself; Intel will now be its only high-volume user.
- Pivot to 14A: Intel is telling prospective foundry customers to wait for the next node, 14A. The process should be “ready” late-2026, but real volume is not expected before late-2027 / early-2028.
- Second major setback in a year: After cancelling 20A last autumn, abandoning 18A for external business is another blow to Intel’s credibility about its process roadmap.
- Financial and reputational fallout: The billions already sunk into 18A will still force Intel to make some chips internally on the node to avoid complete write-offs, but analysts expect impairments and factory re-planning.
- Executive candour: Client Computing boss Michelle Johnston Holthaus recently warned she would build the 2026 “Nova Lake” CPUs at TSMC if Intel’s own foundry cannot deliver a competitive result—an implicit vote of no confidence in 18A.
- Reuters corroboration: A parallel Reuters report says new CEO Lip-Bu Tan is actively weighing a formal phase-out of 18A for outside customers, redirecting resources to 14A in order to lure marquee accounts such as Apple or Nvidia—at the cost of a potential write-off running into hundreds of millions (or even billions) of dollars. A decision could reach Intel’s board later this year.
1 Like
Best thing is when INTC is around $19 is to sell puts with strike Px below $17
Made decent moolah on this trade this year.
1 Like
Samsung is going to make another 2-nm process improvement and is pushing SF1.4 back to 2029.
Samsung will never catch up to TSMC.
HK Hynix also kicking Samsung’s ass in DRAM.
They can make fridges and washing machines 
1 Like
Might be a commercial failure for the foundry business, but it seems like their sub 2nm process capability is there (what we were talking about) and they’re going to use it for their chips.
Samsung is doing alright. It can survive. The real issue is not if Samsung, China, USA or etc can xatch up. The real issue is if TSMC devolves, whcuh is famously ckmmon for taiwan (companies selling out and evolving away from taiwan). This is all too obvious and worrying to Taiwan. this is the key point. Can Taiwan maintain the only golden egg it has [outside of geography] whilst everyone in the world is trying very HARD to steal their winning formula.
I have hopes for taiwan and tsmc, but I feel it extremely naive to not see the writing that is already on the wall…despite tsmc building loads of shell factories throughout taiwan, most already basically finished. They have cash to pay for infrastructure, but can they play against the geopolitical reality ? I hope they can, but I doubt they will.
America invented semiconductors and pioneered semiconductor manufacturing so if it pulls a Morris Chang on Taiwan wouldn’t that just be turnabout is fair play?
Taiwan has another ace up it’s sleeve, CoWoS and all the suppliers feeding into that. The chips made in the US are still sent back here to undergo CoWoS packaging.
Look at the sheer scale of the industry here and how far ahead they still are.
https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3967
TSMC not only dominates the advanced manufacturing section of the process; now with CoWoS, it’s also the leader in advanced packaging.
Yeah but it didn’t invent lots of the other stuff that’s needed at scale to make it a ubiquitous industry supporting AI and advanced applications. Also it is hard to do involves lots of liver bursting 
.
1 Like
If America hadn’t invented semiconductors Taiwan’s main industries today would be shoes and bicycles.
Chemicals , plastics and steel.
And we’d be communicating by telex, woohoo!
I think the logical way to view this topic is generational. Or, at least, a dew decades. Everything important is long term. I think everyone knows that today, see date stamp for future readers, taiwan holds the cards. Only for right now. I feel it isnt just ignorant, but arrogant, that we can assume in 2 decades or so it will remain the exact same situation. I feel this is naive. As well as anti democratic, anti human and basically just simply selling out your allies for short term monetary gain. Literally the most retarded way to run a society/government/country/world.
Today, Taiwan has these cards to play. I honestly doubt we will maintain these cards in 2 decades. Everyone else is trying to hard to cut us out. This is obvious. Various nations leaders (eg. China and USA) are saying this outloud. Real time. I don’t think we should take their speeches as nothing. Nevermind the private sector.
For Taiwan this is about an existential existence as a nation. Not just about money and exports of -whatever product-. If we lose this leverage, without security and friendship deals signed in ink (I realize nothing signed by the US is trhsted anymore, thanks to Trump, but it still needs to be done), it’s game over. It is an entirely different game for Taiwan than say South Korea or the US. I only hope the world actually grasps this pretty simple point and acts accordingly. Support democratic freedoms and nations based on positive growths, rather than darker human rights issues for profit. The US always claims to support this. The constitution, thwir religious shit, all that. When it ckmes tonjust purchasing a cutting board, fuck freedom…slavery and disaster that want to kill their cou tey as well is prederable becahse it costs 10 cents less than a freedom cutting board. Something that people like trump are certainly not appreciating the depth of the situation. It’s bonkers to me how this obvious dact is just simply ignored for sellfishness and greed. Literally a slow suicide, they don’t even get it. Despite the obvious, despite the writing on the wall and despite historical norms. It’s almost like we want this future tragedy to happen. All of us, via inaction.