Sorry for sounding like a dick, but BS’ing your way through your post talking about the US being ‘on the turn’ doesn’t add much. The U.S. has been ‘on the turn’ ever since Obama has been in office. Just go back and listen to what the President and FED have been saying the last 6 years. I could have kept typing on and on giving more examples of why I think you’re wrong, but I got tired of typing. I give up, I’ll go watch the expert panel of economists on CNBC don their Janet Yellen T-shirts instead.
Now back to the thread topic, the TWD going down. It’s fallen to 31.5…OMG!!!..the sky is falling!, the sky is falling! :roflmao:
But seriously, the NT may drop for a while but then it’ll come back again. Why the fear mongering?
People have been doomsdaying about the economy for millenia so your doomsdaying doesn’t add much.
I don’t think anybody should be saying that the US economy is awesome. It should be rather clear that US economy is currently among the best of the major economies in the world. The strong dollar reflects that.
[quote=“buzzkill1”]Sorry for sounding like a dick, but BS’ing your way through your post talking about the US being ‘on the turn’ doesn’t add much. The U.S. has been ‘on the turn’ ever since Obama has been in office. Just go back and listen to what the President and FED have been saying the last 6 years. I could have kept typing on and on giving more examples of why I think you’re wrong, but I got tired of typing. I give up, I’ll go watch the expert panel of economists on CNBC don their Janet Yellen T-shirts instead.
Now back to the thread topic, the TWD going down. It’s fallen to 31.5…OMG!!!..the sky is falling!, the sky is falling! :roflmao:
But seriously, the NT may drop for a while but then it’ll come back again. Why the fear mongering?
BTW, I apologize for sounding rude :flowers:[/quote]
You are not rude, however judging from your post you are too young to remember earlier downturns. The recovery is usually after a set pattern, and this is being followed in this case also.
I recall the post 1990 recession and upswing, the post 9-11 one etc. People always complain about poor quality jobs and too few of them during a recovery, that’s par for the course. The good jobs are coming in the US, and the recovery wil become self-sustaining, I am willing to bet whatever on that.
“The Census Bureau reports this week that 16 million American children under the age of 18—about one in five—received food stamps last year. Before the Great Recession of 2007-2009, about one in eight were on food stamps. This isn’t because of the growth of single mothers. In fact, the rate of children living with married parents getting food stamps has doubled since 2007.
Meanwhile, the median earnings for full-time U.S. workers aged 18 to 34 have fallen nearly 10% since 2000, after adjusting for inflation.
Bottom line: This is not a “recovery” for most Americans. The economy has been expanding since 2009, but nothing has trickled down. We must stop measuring the success of the economy by the growth of GDP.”
@ Mr He: Actually, the last 2 cycles have been different from historical norms in ways I won’t take time to explain The global economy isn’t the same as when old men where babes
[quote=“Elegua”]Maybe he forgot that employment is a trailing indicator.
Maybe he forgot that currencies are relative - all you have to do is suck less.[/quote]
You mean job openings are a leading indicator? Sort of like how new business start ups are?
How are all those new job openings going to get filled when we’re just a half a percent or so from full employment?
I guess you can cherry pick your way to believing US outlook is strong. Personally, I’m starting to notice more negative signs than positive. Things seem to be getting bleak in other major economies. It’s funny people think the US is somehow either insulated or strong enough to drive global growth, but I’m no fortune teller. Maybe one day I’ll get the whole blow-suck thing down like you and finally understand.
The assumption is that FED policy has worked because the US has been in recovery for several years and now showing “strong” indications of greater growth. So far all they’ve been able to demonstrate is keeping banks’ heads above water for 6 years. The economy looks strong, but we first need unemployment below 6.5%. Everything still looks positive, but we really need unemployment below 6%. It got below 6%, then it was the dollar and not enough inflation. Months of the FED hinting about a rate hike are starting to turn into years.
The economy has been growing for years and all signs positive, but still too fragile to handle a .5% rate? Really? But our tide will raise the boats of the world :homer:
The proof in the pudding will be economic expansion even after monetary policy normalization takes place. Until that happens it’s just more talk
Tell ya what, If the FED keep their funds rate 1% or higher (historically still very low) for as long as 6 months anytime during the next 5 years I’ll buy you a Janet Yellen T-shirt. If they don’t start QE4 anytime in the next 2 years I’ll get you a “I heart Yellen” bumper sticker. If I win, you can kiss my ass , just kidding
Increase in economic output comes first, then hiring. Employment rates are trailing.
Increased labor participation rates and productivity increases. Not all jobs lost during the recession come back.
Are we talking about currency and exchange rates? Or the overall US economy? Sure, in the long run they are the same, but I’ll get to that in a moment.
If we’re talking currency, the US dollar is still the currency of last resort. Look at the punishment people we willing to take to hold USD in the last downturn. Is that because the US is so awesome? No. It’s more about how the alternatives suck more. When they get their respective houses in order, then there will be a challenge to the USD.
I can’t predict currencies and I don’t speculate on FOREX. If I could I probably wouldn’t need to work. Personally I just match my income and expenses and keep a simple operating hedge; the gain on one side is cancelled out by the loss on the other.
If we’re talking about the US economy; I’m still long on the US, even in the face of increased competition. Why? The US has the demographics, the resources, (including energy), it has a large domestic market, and as flawed as it is, the system of governmental works reasonably well. Go back and take a look at the 90’s. The US carried a lot of water in terms of the global economy.
I keep seeing this thread title and thinking I’ve missed a major economic event! TWD has increased against almost every major currency over the last 12 months (EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY - just about everything except CNY and USD!), and is continuing to do so.
USD has gone up. That’s slightly different.
Any chance of a thread title fix for my sanity, please?
The point was, broadly, that the Taiwan dollar COULD be devalued,
especially against the USD, as so many others already have. It HAS devalued against the USD already (whether you want to call it USD going up is just semantics)!
But yes, It has more than held its
own
in a basket of currencies in a deflationary world environment … so far.
US was doing QE and the others were not the USD was down to all time lows.
Now in reverse the US stops QE Japan and EU begin QE and they are going to all time lows.
Meanwhile while we’re cheerleading and making meaningless statements since we’re outside of the corrupt inner industry, poverty is increasing, everywhere, a lot.
The problem with your charts, and your attitude about stocks quite frankly is that you’re assuming it’s an all or nothing proposition. Like someone buying stocks means putting 100% of your money in the S&P 500 and seeing what will happen. Of course that would be foolish, but nobody does this. Why talk about something that not a single person does?
Is the stock market expensive right now? Of course.
Should you overweight the stock market in your portfolio right now? No, of course not.
But are there ways to include the stock market as a healthy part of a balanced portfolio even at these historically high prices? Hell yes. So what exactly is the problem with investing in stocks right now? Balance out your correlations, invest smaller and diversify, and use stop-losses when necessary. There’s no reason why people shouldn’t be invested in stocks right now. I’m not seeing your issue…
You’re kind of advice was shared by many on March 9th, 2009 and it’s been continuing ever since. Your type of doomsday stuff about stocks is what’s led a huge chunk of the investing public to miss out on one of the greatest, most consistent, and most predictable market rallies of our time. Oops. But the bears will have their day in the sun, someday. Once every 6-7 years or so they are right, temporarily. Then it quickly goes back to them being wrong and silly for another 6-7 years…
So for the record you’re bullish right? Me too. After all, QE3 would have worked much better if it were much bigger. I hope QE4 is MUCH bigger, then we’re talking DJIA at 30k in 2 years tops. What does invest smaller mean? I’m all caps all the time. And how about those stop losses…they didn’t work so great during the flash crash of May 6, 2010, but stop losses are for pussies.
BTW, who needs diversification when easy money causes turds to float side-by-side with yachts?
And don’t give me that crap that the FED had to save the world from destruction by covering the gambling debts of sociopathic banksters. A strategy had been put in place since the 80s for emergency response to financial breakdowns that would have worked just fine
In other words, a template for temporary nationalization of deposits of failed institutions was already in place. The accounts would then become privatized when sold to solvent institutions. I guess drowning crooks with trillions of dollars makes more sense.
Sorry, I just had to get that out of my system. I made my share of money in the stock market since 09, but I’m out for now. I hope you keep making money in stocks this year, Brent. Good luck to you. Your position, and the position of most investors/financiers, is that QE worked and the recovery is real. I think it’s a bubble masquerading as a recovery. QE cannot be deemed a success if the the economy cannot continue to grow without it. I think we’re sliding back into global recession and the best thing central banks can do is let the markets find their own prices. It hurts for a while, but it gets better with time…sort of like a first love. The longer they wait to raise rates the more likely they can’t afford to.
If the economy sustains growth despite monetary normalization in the not-so-distant future I’ll be the first to admit I’m wrong. The question is, what will it take for you to admit you’re wrong? QE4? QE5? 6 more years of zero interest? The days of being able to borrow our way out of this mess are numbered
I hope you’re not expecting me to respond to that giant straw man. Almost nothing in there has anything to do with anything I said. Just arbitrarily assigning me views as if they are the same as all the other people you detest and then arguing at me as if I said them? Were you looking in a mirror when you wrote all that, because it seems that’s the only person you’re talking to. If you’d like to have an actual conversation about it where we listen to each others views and respond, I’m all for that. But if you’re going to just assign me views that aren’t my own, you mine as well play with yourself
I’m not bullish or bearish, I’m an option trader. I have the luxury of not having to make those random rolls of the dice. Opinions can be and usually are wrong on a regular basis. Math and statistics are far more reliable.
Every bit of what I typed was in response to previous posts you made in this thread and others. Doesn’t surprise me though…wall street types aren’t known for long memories
As stated, guys like you will be right for six months every 7 years, and comically wrong and silly the rest of the time. Literally, like clockwork for the past 100+ years. Doomsday father to doomsday son, father to son, father to son, for 100+ years. Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong RIGHT, wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong, RIGHT !
Agree with headhoncho. There was a rise in value during first half Feb associated with NTD cash accumulations going into CNY. I think most companies paid out the variable bonus yesterday. I don’t expect the spending of cash to drive the exchange rates, if anything I would think it has potential to drop value because some of those NTDs will go onto the forex market either for investment purposes or Taiwan will travel outside the country and spend offshore. I divested a lot of NTD in Feb so maybe I am biased but I still earn in NTD. I generally have done OK selling NTD going into CNY.
:roflmao:
The global economy isn’t the same as when old men where babes 
, just kidding
The days of being able to borrow our way out of this mess are numbered