NT has made back a lot of its losses last few days.
ā(Bloomberg) ā Taiwanās dollar climbed to the strongest level since January as global investors boosted holdings of the islandās shares on speculation the central bank wonāt join the global wave of monetary easing.ā
I really hope it gets back to 30:1 to the USD by this summerā¦
Looks like the rate to the USD is getting better. Letās see what the coming week bringsā¦
Yep itās strengthened a lot, although pretty much within average of last few years, but since USD itself has strengthened against othersā¦so it must be significantly up against other countries ā¦as indeed it is against the Euro. Iām quite surprised the MOF hasnāt tried to weaken the currency, itās quite a different direction that previous ministers. I guess they are happy cos the stock market has been doing pretty well or China hasnāt weakened too much either.
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Would be a good time to send money home now. I did the other day. Seems to have settled around 30.5. Wonder how long it will stay around thereā¦
Thatās right, you better get rid of those NTDs while thereās still time. 30.5? That canāt be right. Havenāt you heard the USD is on a multi-year bull run? Donāt you watch CNBC? By the end of the year youāll be lucky to get 40. Once the world realizes the US canāt raise rates very much without crashing the economy it will likely go to 50. QE4 might even drop the NT to 60. SELL SELL SELL those TWDsā¦
^^^^^^^^^ Ummmmmā¦ Iām not sure what exact point youāre trying to make, but some of us do need to send money home for specific reasons. If you do, now is a good time.
JPY down to 124 over the last few days. There is an article in the FT saying that it could be as low as 140 year end and that Korea may join in the loosening game. If you agree with the logic of the article then you can also expect the TWD to depreciate as the correlation between the TWD and KRW is pretty high.
Iāve checked the trading data for USD TWD and itās stayed tight for over 10 years!
I missed the bigger picture of TWD vs Euro and GBP etc. Thatās the real concern. Now I see the Euro strengthening again, once the Greek crisis is resolved, it looks like the Euro will go back up somewhat against TWD, thatās what Iām betting. Iād say put some TWD into Euro would be a good time now. USD might strengthen too against TWD if US economic recovery continues, but maybe not as big a bounce back as Euro. Euro traded at about 1:40 TWD for very long periods.
[quote=āheadhonchoIIā]Iāve checked the trading data for USD TWD and itās stayed tight for over 10 years!
I missed the bigger picture of TWD vs Euro and GBP etc. Thatās the real concern. Now I see the Euro strengthening again, once the Greek crisis is resolved, it looks like the Euro will go back up somewhat against TWD, thatās what Iām betting. Iād say put some TWD into Euro would be a good time now. USD might strengthen too against TWD if US economic recovery continues, but maybe not as big a bounce back as Euro. Euro traded at about 1:40 TWD for very long periods.[/quote]
1:40 would be a big wet dream for me.
Few currencies are looking better than the NT right now. The minister of finance doesnāt really have a strong incentive to weaken the currency, because big business exports out of other countries like China anyway? It seems China has been keeping their currency fairly level. Whatever his reasons are, I hope he maintains course
Europeās and the USā problems have just begunā¦Europeās little uptick was because the Euro fell. A weak currency alone wonāt save the day for long though, and how long can the US afford to have the āstrongā currency? The US canāt afford a strong dollar and low inflation, which is one of the reasons they canāt raise interest rates. If they raise rates it will have exactly the opposite affect theyāre trying to create. The economy is already faltering, but thatās a secondary concern at this point. Once people realize interest rates can never be normalized again without bankrupting the country both financially and fiscally the gig is pretty much up
Itās all relative, the US economy is showing pretty good jobs growth and itās odds on for interest rates to go up this year. But the TWD tends to track the USD fairly closely so thereās not much upside or downside usually if you are mainly dealing in USD and TWD. But against the Euro long-term the TWD is near historical lows, since the Eurozone seems to be mainly on the mend Iād bet more on the Euro climbing back a bit to itās historical levels. The Greek crisis will get resolved one way or the other, it wonāt kill the Euro.
Looks like the Euro is on its way back up vis a vis the TWdā¦almost 35:1 now.
GBP is going to 50+:1 especially with interest rates going up this year in Britain but exports dropping in taiwan.
Buzzkillā¦you are on the wrong track.
Both good for us exporters.
[quote=āheadhonchoIIā]
Buzzkillā¦you are on the wrong track.[/quote]
Hmmmā¦lets see, what is NTD value now compared to when you started this thread? And Iām the one on the wrong track? 
Iāve said it before, and Iāll say it again. Unless the Minister of Finance does a complete reversal on Taiwanās monetary policy, NTD value moving forward looks good indeed. In the unlikely event the FED raises rates this year youāll probably see the TWD dip compared to the USD when it happens, but even then Iām guessing it would be temporary. There also might be a dip from capital flight from weaker economies to USD assets even without a rate hike.
Against the others I see the NT holding its own, easily. Iād be surprised if the Euro doesnāt end up losing whatever gains it might be having now and continue to lose ground going into next year
If Taiwan later decides to go into monetary retard mode like most of the planet then I guess all bets are off.
āUK rate rise further off after Bank downgrades inflation forecastā
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/63cb543e-3c2a-11e5-8613-07d16aad2152.html
The TWD has suddenly dipped against the USD after a policy change in response to China taking the lead with a Yuan devaluation
āTaiwanās Dollar Declines to Five-Year Low as Overnight Rate Cutā
Itās still only 32/usd, so hardly anything dramatic. With China jumping into the currency wars now it will be interesting to see what Taiwan does moving forward. This will make it even harder for the FED to raise rates, and at some point weāll see how much of the expected rate hike is already priced into the USD. Still highly doubtful the NTD will fall much to the Euro or GBP, or that it will fall off a cliff to the USD.
Even if it continues to weaken more against the USD in the short term it will likely be modest unless Taiwan really jumps into an easing mode much more earnestly than they had been, imho. I also think the NTD is ultimately set to gain on the USD when the FED still doesnāt raise rates going into next year, unless by then Taiwan is determined to weaken the NT at all costs.
if you havenāt noticed Taiwan and China arenāt doing too well right now, a lot of
Voices pushing for devaluation and it will happen naturally if foreign investors pull their money out of the stock market.
I had a hunch that the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan would not be good news for the TWD. My hunch was that the TWD was tied in enough to the Yuan that the TWD has been one of the best performers almost anywhere since the Yuan was pegged to the USD. I am concerned that the Chinese will further devalue bringing the TWD down with it. The move from 30 to close to 33 isnāt fun for any of us sending money home but the TWD has still done well vs almost every world currency. Hopefully it doesnāt move to 35-40 in the next 6 months like the other currencies have. That is scary.