[quote=“headhonchoII”]I don’t think this is good for most people. If the Taiwan dollar was stronger people in Taiwan would have more spending power overseas for one. We don’t need anymore tourists in Taiwan, already got a tonne of Chinese and local tourist jamming up everything and making accomodation expensive . Wages are already depressed. Imported goods will become more expensive so expect more crappy oil and foodstuffs all round as laobans cut corners to avoid raising prices. Foreign services will become relatively more expensive, many Taiwanese will find it harder to study or travel overseas. If you have assets in Taiwan and sell them you will get much less in your pocket if converted and brought out of Taiwan.
A cheaper NTD might raise investment, but not when Korea and China and Japan are doing the same, besides, if it’s just Taiwanese businesses investing they will not offer any better conditions nor boost industry mix or employment mix much.
One reason the central bank can get away with tanking the TWD now is because oil price have dropped so much, so consumers wouldn’t get a shock when filling their tank or using electricity.[/quote]
Someone would need multiple masters and PHD’s of economics to really understand and predict all of the scenarios. And even then they would likely be wrong.
Tourism is a small factor for a country like Taiwan but foreign investment in Taiwan would further decline if the TWD stayed strong while the competing regional currencies became weaker. I could easily see a scenario where a strong Taiwan currency led to higher unemployment and higher underemployment. You mention negatives like study and traveling overseas but it’s hard to do that if you don’t have a good job in the first place.
I also think you are jumping the gun on ‘the tanking of the TWD’. This is true if you are only measuring it against the USD. This is also true of many major currencies around the world and the TWD is performing stronger than many others.