Typhoon 2014

No typhoons in the northern hemisphere this time of the year, but some severe flooding in the Philippines has been making the news lately, and now a big whopper of a typhoon passed over Tonga:

news.yahoo.com/powerful-cyclone- … 36655.html

washingtonpost.com/world/str … story.html

Just a heads up from balmy Ishigaki Island…

The most recent typhoon that never was: the north-moving low pressure system that has already made landfall west of Taiwan (you can still see it on the weather charts).
Before that we’ve had a few wannabe type circulations near Ishigaki (east of Taiwan), but nothing serious so far. However, the ocean surface temperature is rising nicely, so things should get interesting before long around Taiwan and the Philippines. Time to check up on what needs to be prepared and to get repairs done.
After all, typhoons in the western Pacific are listed right there with taxes and death, and this year’s El Ninyo will likely have an amplifying effect.

Until when it happens: no news is good news.

PS: the rainy season related to the summer monsoon could be over within a week…

Yep, the news says predictions are for a very active August typhoon season. And we all know how deadly those late summer typhoons are. Not good.

Good bye, and good riddance!

Guy

As long as my flight to Vancouver isn’t delayed next month, I’m set! Typhoon delays in August resulting in me being “stuck” in beautiful British Columbia before heading back to Taiwan? Oh well!

Yep, a sacrifice, but someone has to do it!

Greetings to Granville Market.

I need some typhoon vacations so bad.

Lots of tree damage in non typhoon storms over the last month in some southern valleys. The river guys collecting wood are/were having some fun :slight_smile: At least in south, this year has been very dry, mild and tame as far as rains go. Some really bad lightning storms though.

There’s been a very unusual amount of rain in central Taiwan areas this year, probably El Niño related, I don’t think it’s finished yet either.

North Taiwan as well!

Is it just me or has El nino been happening every single year?? I thought they happen once every 4 years…

It only happens when people start caring and looking out their windows :wink:

The last major El Nino was 2009/10.

In the event of a typhoon, work and school closures will be announced here: typhoon.dgpa.gov.tw/ndse.html

This is a useful mirror of the JWTC tracks and “prognostic reasoning” (under “discussion”): wunderground.com/tropical/

Here’s a multi-tracker: typhoon2000.ph/multi/

Just announced the possibility of a big one hitting us next week. Start loading up stocks!

WHEN?!?!?! PLEASE, I REALLY NEED IT.

I’m serious about this. If there’s no typhoon soon (and from M to F), fuck Taiwan, I give it up.

Icon, do you recall where you saw or heard such an announcement? (I suspect you may have mistaken a speculative comment for an announcement or heard/saw part of some general report about probabilities at various times of the year that gave rise to the idea that there was a possibility of a strong storm at this time)

Here is one of the most reliable sources of information: usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
First step: a good way to get an overview:
-> Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories: -> ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean) -> - Satellite Image
As of June 29 there is nothing brewing that would suggest a typhoon in the next week…
This overview is sometimes half a day late, so the second step is to check things like “Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert”,
“Tropical Storm XX Warning #xx”, and “Typhoon XX Warning #xx” - here you get more recen information - in the case of active storms an update is published every 6 hours (however, there is a delay between assessment time and publication time that can reach 2-3 hours). And an emerging or existing cyclone can also be seen (from the top, via images taken by satellites) if one checks any link named “IR Satellite Imagery”.

If you have any question(s) concerning anything you read or otherwise see on that site, feel free to ask me. :slight_smile:

(I may not answer right away in all cases since these days i don’t check the forums here regularly, but if i am still capable of checking in here i will reply at some time…)

Local TVBS weather guy -really old fellow, white hair and all- was showing a low pressure system that is expected to at least become a severe storm, path closing to Taiwan from Guam area. But formation is slow, expected to hit next week. Meanwhile, wait and see. And start squirreling necessary items: food, drinks, entertainment.

Don’t shoot poor Jesus hopes just yet!

BTW, we need to move the links to typhoon info to this thread. I have a feeling this will be a very active summer, given the amount of flooding with just “simple” thunderstorms lately here.

Yes, this Low has been around for a few days now and everybody has been keeping an eye on it. JTWC ( usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ ) reports it as still rather unorganized, and their prognosis is therefore, “The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.” But there is another Low farther east that already has a “medium” prognosis…

LATER EDIT: I just realized that the TVBS weather guy you quoted must have referred to the Low that is farther east (since that is closer to Guam) - the one that i mentioned first is much closer to Taiwan (near Palau). Both systems have been moving in a westerly direction lately…

Well, let me split hairs here :wink: : “expected” is perhaps a bit strong in this case - “considered possible” is more like it. Why that? Because 1 week in advance the path a cyclone will take is not yet known (of course there are statistical values based on previous experience, so a more accurate report might say, “the probability of this becoming a cyclone that hits Taiwan is 30%” or so). But even if i think it is to early to say “expected”, i agree with you that it is smart to prepare! This is an old hat for the veterans here, but for newcomers it ought to be said that we should prepare now even if the weather report says nothing, since we are now, after all, in what we in Okinawa commonly call “the typhoon season” (July to October) :wink:
There is a related thread on typhoon preparation: forumosa.com/taiwan/viewtop … =8&t=46197 (it’s a bit long… i guess we could make a few extracts from that and make a new sticky thread)

WHEN?!?!?! PLEASE, I REALLY NEED IT.

I’m serious about this. If there’s no typhoon soon (and from M to F), fuck Taiwan, I give it up.[/quote]

Yeah welcome to Taiwan, summer with no summer holidays. Christmas with no Christmas, it’s a blast!