Typhoons 2018

How accuarate is windy.com?

The typhoon is on course to hit Taiwan by Monday evening and then Tuesday it just says nah i’m doing a 180 and leaving.

I tend to use the CIMSS site, click on the typhoon and there are all sorts of options to check out the storm, on the top list of check boxes is one for models, but they don’t really try to go beyond 120 hours out. For this storm you need to change the resolution to 8km to even get Taiwan on the map.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

not keeping my hopes high, we have constant cold(ish) wind coming from the North and land/water temperatures have dropped a lot over the last few weeks. not a very interesting holiday destination for any typhoon.

That’s a photograph, not a radar image.

lol

and, yes, it’s going to clash with a strong high pressure cell from the north, so who knows WTF it will do or where it will go…

probably going to amount to not much at all following that, but still too early.

Remember, late October typhoons can still be the most serious of the season. I’ve seen that a few times in Okinawa in the last 10 years.

A drawing made by @IbisWtf with Paint, I would say.

You miss my leet drawing skillz, right?

No…we miss your sexy athlete photos.

Well good news, today I was at the conference for the new volleyball season, it’s starting soon!

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1 Like

yay!

Now it looks pretty!

Still a huge variety of different forecast models. Looks like it’s currently a cat5 or very close to that.

Reading between the lines on the JTWC site, I see some increased chance this could affect us

THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT TO OVER 700 NM BY TAU 120 WITH CTCX AND NVGM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE OFFERING A SHARP AND EARLY RECURVATURE AND EGRR AND AFUM ON THE LEFT MARGIN OFFERING A FLAT WESTWARD TRACK. IN VIEW OF THE WIDE SPREAD,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY SHARP POLEWARD RECURVATURE OFFERED BY CTCX AND NVGM.

Currently the sea temperature to our east is relatively cool, while in direction of the philippines and to to our north-east is warmer. Agencies are trying to figure out in which direction it will turn, how close to taiwan it will come before turning, how much the cool wind from the north is going to impact temperatures etc etc

Still so many variables, but it’s surprising to see a typhoon that strong in the middle of the pacific in late october.

Just had a look for an update, the predicted path looks ominous, Im still waiting for the sudden turn to the north to be predicted. One good sign is it seems the 120 hour point they predict it will downgrade from cat 5 to cat 4 (red typhoon icon at the end of the predicted path). The white line is a convergence of models, but they seem to move around hour by hour.

Path should be very straight for a few days, then suddenly curve out once it starts to effect Taiwan.

If not, we’re doomed.

How strong is this bad boy?
If it plows through Taiwan, we getting the day off?

It’s currently really strong, but is bound to weaken. I wouldn’t keep my hopes high. Feelsbadman.

Typhoons hate that island! Click here to know the secret of its success!

I clicked, but nothing happened. Is this some kind of scam?

If you’re talking about the 2018 typhoon season…yes. Yes, it is.

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Man, what a rip-off!