Typhoons 2018

You dare mention the M word in the sanctuary of the God of Spinning Winds?

Rule of thumb, no Doom Paul gifs, no typhoon.

Still waiting on feelsbadman in rain gif.

“MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.”

Both GFS and ECMWF show it to basically disappear within the next 36/48 hours as soon as it enters in contact with our mountains. Forecast so far shows signs of a tropical depression, nothing close to a typhoon, but later today there will be some updates.

Ehhhh…in this period of the year…I don’t know, rain doesn’t feel TOO bad when the alternative is having 38C / feels like 69C.

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Yet the news outlest here keep on sending messages of doom…

And many people have no idea rain is coming and keep on hiking deep in the mountains…

That’s a way to establish Alpha status.

They rarely cancel flights in Taiwan due to typhoons. Pilots like to have a crack at a ropey take-off, see if they can get their “Dirty Weather Take-off Badge”.

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https://tw.mobi.yahoo.com/news/南豪雨-強風特報齊-颱風最快今生成-225013631.html

They insist typhoon is coming.

Strong winds during lunch today.

No sign of rain.

“Typhoon” or “cyclone” ?

A cyclone is very likely, but that term refers to any spinning thing.

Yahoo News still exists???

Are you sure they aren’t predicting a 'phoon for June 1918??
Maybe check AOL for a second opinion…:rofl:

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alert the troops on mIRC

Raining hard in Xizhi.

Rain in Gong Guan.

Getting darker here in Zhongshan.

Wow, Ibby’s forecast was 100% accurate.

image

So this is a regular storm not a typhoon?

CWB issues heavy rain alert for central, southern Taiwan

2018/06/14 12:03:03

Taipei, June 14 (CNA) Heavy or extremely heavy rain is expected in central and southern Taiwan Thursday, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said that day.

As a weather front and southwesterly winds move north, precipitation is spreading from southern to northern Taiwan and weather conditions around the country are forecast to become unstable.

A tropical depression that formed early Thursday near Dongsha Island in the South China Sea, meanwhile, will bring significant rainfall to central and southern Taiwan, the CWB said.

Residents in those regions should stay alert for heavy or extremely heavy rain, strong winds and lightning strikes, the CWB warned.

Due to the current spring tides, residents and those who are planning to visit coastal areas of Taiwan should also remain vigilant to high tides and flooding, the bureau said.

The rain is not expected to ease until June 17, the CWB added.

Still a bit early to have a clear idea of the intensity. Based on the data from a few hours ago it could grow to a tropical depression (some wind, plenty of rain) and that’s it. It’s already pouring in Kenting/Kaohsiung, so part of this system is already losing strength after getting in contact with Taiwan’s mass.

Latest forecast:

DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE HAS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE BAIU
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

I put in bold the relevant bits: the wind isn’t a particular concern and a pressure of 1005mb won’t allow it to grow much. Heavy rain will be the only issue (or blessing, depending on the point of view after a May with little to no rain).

Uh, so was it a bad idea to move forward our plans to go to Hualien (to this evening instead of tomorrow morning)? Train and definitely not driving.

I was going to fly to Singapore but… Yeahhhh

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I’m afraid I can’t comment on that…forecast models become unreliable after a cyclone/storm starts interacting with land mass and other systems. According to one model, Hualien and Yilan should see ordinary amounts of rain. Another model shows a humongous waterfall on top of Yilan and Hualien starting from tomorrow night, so it’s really impossible to make a prediction.

Saturday and Sunday aren’t looking TOO ugly so far. Not really holiday weather, but no Atlantis.

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@IbisWtf sir, I used to use an app called Windy back home to see what kind of weather conditions I’ll be facing on my rides. I only recently discovered that the EMCWF and GFS models both cover Taiwan (never thought about it until now).

Which model do you think is more accurate? I noticed that the ECMWF is 9km vs 22km, but I have noticed contradictory information from switching one to the other, just for general wind direction.

Thank you kind sir.

What I noticed during these years in Taiwan is that especially when a cyclone/storm is a few days away, ECMWF is more reliable. GFS gets things right too, though. I guess that if someone put all the ECMWF and GFS recorded data together and compiled a median forecast 4/5 days prior to the formation of typhoons in recent years, that median would be extremely close to the actual path and intensity of the typhoons.
GFS tends to overestimate, I remember sooo many times when GFS forecast was an extinction level event and then turned out to be a category 2 or 3 typhoon.

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