# U.S. election - electoral college map site

The site has an active electoral-college map showing recent poll data for the various candidates, with states marked in various colors (or outlines) to show which way they are leaning/going.
electoral-vote.com/

Sample image (inactive, since this is just the basic picture) :

September 15th:

Nice map, Mapo.

Here is a cite that I’ve been watching, which currently gives Bush 279 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Analysis from this site:

[quote]In a simplified analysis, Bush has to win both FL and OH to win. Kerry simply has to win either FL or OH. If Kerry does not win either FL or OH, he has very little chance of becoming President.

Without one of these two states Kerry can get to 268/269 by winning NH and NV, but to get over 270 he will have to carry either WV or MO. It is hard to imagine Kerry losing OH, but winning MO or WV.

Bush needs to win both FL-27 and OH-20, but if he were to lose one of the two he has a small chance of picking up the lost EV’s by winning some combination of either WI-10, NM-5, MN-10, IA-7 and OR-7 (and also denying Kerry pickups in NV and NH). Unlike Kerry’s second-chance scenario, Bush could conceivably lose OH and still hold on to the Presidency by flipping WI and NM and holding on to NV.

If Kerry loses PA or MI he loses.

If Bush loses any one of AZ, CO, TN or AR he loses.
[/quote]

Thanks; it’s a pretty presentation, and I like what they’ve done with javascript. However, I think the guy’s analysis is simplistic. He uses a linear regression to plot trend lines through data, to project how the numbers will firm up by election day. However, this doesn’t take into account that Kerry’s numbers in many states have been dropping rapidly in the last few weeks – a quadratic fit shows Kerry losing several more states.

Tennessee in particular – there is no way Kerry will win Tennessee. But because Kerry got a bounce after the Dem convention, the linear regression claims that he has a chance.

bush ahead or within moe in nj, ill, and minn. if kerry loses even ONE of those 3, he’s incredibly screwed.

Haha, relying on partisan websites for “statistical accuracy”? No need to wonder what’s keeping you up at night.

Yeah, the one I posted is partisan, all right – the guy very clearly states repeatedly that he is a
Kerry supporter
.

Blasphemy! A victory dinner anywhere but the Ritz Paris 1930? Quel idee! Sorry Alleycat but for victory in such a tight race, only the best French food and champagne will do mais qu’est ce que vous attendez?

Love Fred

My envelope, placed in a former mayonaise jar on the doorstep of Funk & Wagnal’s, says - President G.W. Bush re-elected by a margin of 12 - 15 %.

my \$NT.02 worth.

And today’s:

Note that Oregon, Illinois, and New York have all increased their support of Bush. They are still in Kerry’s camp, but less so – and this trend will only continue until Election Day.

So, Toe Slave, you can bugger off. Feel free to turn up at Alleycat’s – no need to introduce yourself, you’ll be the one crying in the corner.

Whoa! New Jersey is now leaning toward Bush!

Holy crap. That must’ve changed in the few hours since I posted the new map!

I’d heard the race was close in NJ (amazingly bad sign for Kerry), but I hadn’t heard it had flipped. I’m expecting NY to go for Bush despite current projections, simply because they have experienced the vast majority of terrorist activity in the U.S. I can’t imagine they would vote for Kerry’s “treat it as a police matter after it happens” strategy.

I also think Maine will eventually end up going for Bush, since his family has roots there (Kennebunkport).

New York is now only “weak for Kerry”! Holy shit!

No. These are all major polls:[/quote]

The title of the thread is: electoral map.

The electoral map is provided by analysis of polls but there is an error that you just can’t see on a map.

latest rasmussen poll has kerry up by only 5 points in ny. wow. his last poll(sept. 5th) had kerry up only 8 points in CALIFORNIA. double wow.