WARNING: the shit may have just hit the fan

Just saw an update from Tickerforum:

So it’s a good time to buy, right?

Is that why gold’s on the march again?

HG

Bush’s economic legacy: the gift that keeps on taking.

Ok is the world coming apart at the seams here? Is Obama the AntiChrist as someone said then?

Nah, dont think so. . I will go take a dump in the belief that everything is still the same mess its been for awhile. Not a new mess.

[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]Is that why gold’s on the march again?

HG[/quote]
Dunno. From what I’m reading, the dollar and gold are shooting up against all other major currencies. Korea is down 5%. Wouldn’t surprise me if China decided to pull the trigger just to give a warning shot to Bernanke/Geithner. However, so far, there’s no sign of anything much worse so far. Starting to look like just another deep-down day rather than a global market collapse.

I was actually going to buy calls on GLD at the open when I logged on and saw that post. Wish I’d done it on Friday. :pray:

Well, hell, at least I have a few hundred shares.

Heard the Poles borrowed heavily on the Swiss franc, but with the zloty hitting the floor, half the country is about to receive a margin call. Poland will likely be the next one to the IMF, cap in hand, and the stack of cards gets another mighty shake.

[quote]Hungary’s forint tumbled to a record low against the euro, and the Polish zloty and Czech koruna slumped, on increasing signs the region’s economies may be the hardest hit from the global recession.

The forint fell as much as 2.2 percent as the government proposed tax cuts to shore up the economy amid the steepest decline in industrial output since at least 1991. The zloty lost as much as 4 percent to its lowest level in almost five years as analysts anticipated the worst slide in production in at least 17 years. The koruna slid as much as 2.2 percent to its weakest level since 2005, as economic growth reached a decade-low.

“The slowdown is worsening and this has negative impact on currencies,” said Michal Karewicz, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in Warsaw. “Investors are exiting east Europe and moving their capital west.”

The region is the among most vulnerable to the global credit crisis as a recession in the euro-zone hurts exports and weakened exchange rates push up the cost of repaying foreign- currency debt. Poland’s zloty lost 13.6 percent against the euro this year, the biggest decline among emerging-market currencies worldwide. Hungary was the first European Union member to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund last year.[/quote]

Fark these interesting times. I wish I could remember how to skin a rabbit, it might be the only tradeable skill I have by year end. Although there’s also the possibility of panning for gold along with the 20% of the Oz population laid off before New Year. I’d have to get back there first.

HG

Well, nothing I’m reading (from the Economist to online articles), hearing or seeing seems to bode well. Just last night I was telling a group of adult students we’re heading for a huge shit pile this year and it’s going to get much worse before it even thinks of getting better.

Honestly, I’m really worried. Losing students head over fist because parents have less work (the lucky ones) or have lost their jobs (the unlucky ones) and can’t afford “luxuries” like ESL anymore. I’m already down to 9 hours a week at my bushiban and my second job is only bringing my total to 21, including Saturdays and Sundays…

Are we f***ed or what?

[quote=“bismarck”]
Honestly, I’m really worried. Losing students head over fist because parents have less work (the lucky ones) or have lost their jobs (the unlucky ones) and can’t afford “luxuries” like ESL anymore. I’m already down to 9 hours a week at my buxiban and my second job is only bringing my total to 21, including Saturdays and Sundays…

Are we f***ed or what?[/quote]

Nay, Herr Bismarck. ESL is not a luxury. It’s a necessity, especially now. We just have to educate them to that :pray:

I have two acquaintances in English industry here who both contacted me this week wondering if I knew of any jobs available…although they are still working but maybe pressure is building all round.
By the way, what do people think of changing NTD into Euro?

[quote=“Charlie Phillips”][quote=“bismarck”]
Honestly, I’m really worried. Losing students head over fist because parents have less work (the lucky ones) or have lost their jobs (the unlucky ones) and can’t afford “luxuries” like ESL anymore. I’m already down to 9 hours a week at my buxiban and my second job is only bringing my total to 21, including Saturdays and Sundays…

Are we f***ed or what?[/quote]

Nay, Herr Bismarck. ESL is not a luxury. It’s a necessity, especially now. We just have to educate them to that :pray:[/quote]

I agree, but when cash strapped parents have to decide between Anchinban, ESL bushiban and MPM (math), ESL is the first to go…

ESL can be the first to go if the teacher and bushiban management is lax. MPM might get them into a Chinese factory job or on a dorky math scholarship, but English will enable them to get to the latest and most critical economic data before it’s filtered by all the Chinese experts in Taipei and Beijing who studied MPM… oh, shit, maybe we are f0cked.

:pray: May the force be with us. And buy when the panic sets in and not before the bailout.

ESL is needed for students studying overseas.

Students are applying in droves for overseas study, especially MBA programs, because of the crappy economy. With extra time from layoffs/unemployment, plus the need to gain a competitive edge in the tough economy, students are going back to school. And to thrive in overseas study, they need to boost their English skills.

I agree, but when cash strapped parents have to decide between Anchinban, ESL buxiban and MPM (math), ESL is the first to go…[/quote]

Shouldn’t that read, “when cash strapped parents have to decide between Mercedes, BMW, Gucci, Prada and ESL, ESL is the first to go…”?

And can one blame them? No amount of ESL will ever enable them to speak proper English, whereas a few million well-spent NTD can lend the impression that they are cultured, worldly and sophisticated. :wink:

Guys, remember, the kids that do not go to bushiban do not pass the tests -or at least they think so. Remember I told you that in the last research trips I made, most teachers were desolated because the kids whose parents could not afford bushiban couldn’t catch up with the rest, and were at such disadvantage that the kids just gave up at school.

So the dropout population will grow. ESL is not essential as what it teaches is of no relevance to their lives -meaning tests, who needs to atlk or communicate? make sense, forget it!- and hence is a disposable expenditure, easily replaced by a non-native teacher well-versed in memorization techniques and hopefully in a bushiban with access to the answers to the tests.

In summary, yes, most furriner teachers are $#@$ed.

Actually, many of us furriners don’t teach ESL (or anything else), such as moi. I work for a very large tech company. Our company is being seriously battered by the global crisis and our compensation will definitely be down this year. But, I’m not gonna weep about it. I feel extremely fortunate to have a good job and will just wait it out till this storm has finally passed. No biggie. In the meantime, I’m going to continue living to the fullest (but on a tighter budget).

Anyway, I’ll be curious to see what the financial/business news reports tomorrow re the OP. Will it be really bad? Possibly, but we already knew the global economy is sliding downhill at least in 2009Q1 and Q2, so it’s no surprise. Will I lose thousands more dollars? Probably, but that was also a foregone conclusion.

So, same old same old, daily economic disaster. No biggie. This is a year for exercise, self-improvement, etc., but not for financial gain. Financially this year will suck, but we’ll survive and next year will be better. :slight_smile:

[quote=“Chris”]ESL is needed for students studying overseas.

Students are applying in droves for overseas study, especially MBA programs, because of the crappy economy. With extra time from layoffs/unemployment, plus the need to gain a competitive edge in the tough economy, students are going back to school. And to thrive in overseas study, they need to boost their English skills.[/quote]

The pound is through the floor right now: lots more Euro students are applying this year to UK unis. Domestic applications are up 13% this year, reversing a fall in domestic numbers, according to an article I read yesterday.

[quote=“Mother Theresa”]Actually, many of us furriners don’t teach ESL (or anything else), such as moi. I work for a very large tech company. Our company is being seriously battered by the global crisis and our compensation will definitely be down this year. But, I’m not gonna weep about it. I feel extremely fortunate to have a good job and will just wait it out till this storm has finally passed. No biggie. In the meantime, I’m going to continue living to the fullest (but on a tighter budget).

Anyway, I’ll be curious to see what the financial/business news reports tomorrow re the OP. Will it be really bad? Possibly, but we already knew the global economy is sliding downhill at least in 2009Q1 and Q2, so it’s no surprise. Will I lose thousands more dollars? Probably, but that was also a foregone conclusion.

So, same old same old, daily economic disaster. No biggie. This is a year for exercise, self-improvement, etc., but not for financial gain. Financially this year will suck, but we’ll survive and next year will be better. :slight_smile:[/quote]

Good attitude about it all MT.
Keep reminding us as the year goes on.

Elegua predicts dollar to fall again beginning in Q2. Next year will not be better…next year worse. Recovery at 2011 at the earliest and it won’t feel like a recovery.

Who want to put odds?

[quote=“Elegua”]Elegua predicts dollar to fall again beginning in Q2. Next year will not be better…next year worse. Recovery at 2011 at the earliest and it won’t feel like a recovery.

Who want to put odds?[/quote]

It may fall but the NT is not going to strengthen much, if at all, which is what is most relevant to me: I am paid in US dollars most of the time.