Sure, China is a huge market for Canadian products. What does Taiwan do for Canada? Japan doesn’t really care about Taiwan, Japan cares about Japan. It’s no secret that the Chinese are still angry about Japanese aggression and war crimes (let’s face it, that’s kinda reasonable), and China taking Taiwan presents a threat to Japan. Don’t pretend that Japan is any more altruistic than the rest of us, that’s naive at best.
Canada should just look at something else. They’re late to the party in trying to be involved in an industry dominated by Chinese battery tech and US capital access and market.
EV is absolutely brutal right now from what I can see with low margins. The Chinese have saturated it and the demand dropped. This is very close to what i predicted on here about EVs and BYD as it happened before with Chinese solar panels.
BYD is more structurally sound than those solar panel companies so they can probably outlast the low margin price wars. But it’s absolutely brutal right now for EVs.
Honestly, Carney should just kiss some ass and make up with Trump and just reset things. He’s gone soon and the republicans will deservingly get crushed in the coming elections before the next census in 2030 that is projected to heavily favor the republicans in electoral votes with red states gaining more population while blue states losing.
Canadas best position in my view based on the geopolitical reality is to deepens ties to the US and be indispensable.
Canada likely cannot simultaneously:
depend overwhelmingly on the U.S. economy,
rely on U.S. military protection,
integrate into U.S. supply chains,
and pursue a independent balancing strategy with China.
I don’t think anybody who’s made a trade deal with Trump is actually happy with the results of that deal. Makes more sense to Hope that the American electorate doesn’t shit the bed again in 2028. In the meantime, why not sign trade deals with China and sell oil
Yeah, it has already been recognized that overdependence on the US economy was a mistake and hence Carney has been travelling around making trade deals in other countries.
As for relying on US military protection, the only country threatening to invade Canada is the US. If someone else is going to invade Canada, like Russia, then the US can enjoy having Russia as their new neighbor.
For integrating into supply chains, that was the point of NAFTA, the US has changed its mind. Hence my comment just now about diversifying and not relying on the US economy.
So they might as well make friends with China. Everyone else is doing business with China anyway.
I think you’re dead wrong on almost very point besides over reliance on the US.
I think Canada will do better leaning into stable, boring strengths rather than trying to reposition itself as some geopolitical swing state between Washington and Beijing.
A huge part of Canada’s postwar success came from being:
adjacent to the U.S.,
inside the Western security architecture,
rich in resources,
and perceived as safe, stable, and predictable.
If they lose sight of that and try to play as some independent swing state between the US and Beijing, I think everyone besides the Chinese will not see Canada as favorable. Europeans have their own problems and are seriously concerned about how to rebalance trade with China after ironically calling out the US for doing the same to them
Rest of Asia will not sacrifice their relationship with the US for Canadas sake if it’s seen as a slight to the US.
According to your own intelligence agencies, China
Here’s some quotes
“The main perpetrators of foreign interference and espionage against Canada remained the People’s Republic of China”
“(China) remains the most active, persistent, and sophisticated” foreign interference actor targeting Canada"
Other threats include Russia and Iran in the report.
Many Canadians increasingly see the U.S. as an economic or political vulnerability, but Canada’s own intelligence services still view China and other authoritarian states as the primary hostile security and interference threats and does not view the US as a threat in the way the average Canadian might feel after Trumps rhetoric.
The biggest threat to Canada from the US is in hockey right now
Defence cooperation with some EU nations is also happening to reduce reliance on the fickle fascists next door.
Kissing the ring now that the popularity of the fickle fascist in chief is plunging in the US . . . I dunno why that would be a sensible political strategy right now.
Whether ones likes him or not, Carney has not progressed internal or external trade policy wise any more than Trudeau Jr. or Harper…on substance. Just tooted the horn louder…ironically just like DJT. Chretien and Trudeau Jr. established and then renegotiated the Agreement on Internal Trade. More FTAs and push for TPP—Harper pushed by BC behind the scenes…