What would happen if America recognized Taipei?

Here’s an interesting thought. I remember reading about the mass anti Japan protests when that issue with daoyuti islands was taking place.

But I just started wondering. If the US finally decided to hear the wishes of the Taiwanese people and establish official ties with ROC/Taiwan, would anti western demonstrations within China be that much worse. Would westerners living in China have local Chinese trying to physically assault them? If so, I’d feel sorry for every person teaching English or studying chinese in China.

This is just a thought, but what do you all think?

China’s leadership would have no choice but to declare war.

What if…?
Conjecture is the most foul of all wagging of tongue.

In order to justify “recognition” of ROC/Taiwan under international law by the USA, a most likely prerequisite would be that someone would have to offer definitive proof that ROC/Taiwan meets the Montevideo Convention’s criteria for statehood in the international community.

In regard to this issue, a very superficial analysis (which is what most “scholars” offer), appears to show that ROC/Taiwan does meet the four criteria of the Montevideo Convention. However, a more in-depth analysis shows that ROC/Taiwan meets none of the necessary criteria for statehood.

The full analysis is here –
civil-taiwan.org/tchart1.htm

Based on the principle of conquest, Taiwan would have better luck trying to become recognized as an “overseas territory” of whichever country conducted all military attacks against the island in the WWII period. Under international law, “conquest” is a fully recognized method of legally acquiring territory, and that territory is held under military occupation until finalization of its political status. (Taiwan has still not reached a finalization of its political status, in case you hadn’t noticed. That is why its status is always described as being “unsettled” or “undetermined.”) I am still researching that historical data regarding the military attacks, and if you need to know the answer, please give me a PM.

Jonny -
Opening up a Pandoras’ box on this one…Good for a Sunday debate

[quote]But I just started wondering. If the US finally decided to hear the wishes of the Taiwanese people and establish official ties with ROC/Taiwan, would anti western demonstrations within China be that much worse.[/quote]Doubtful. Those seem to be focused on specific themes/companies/incidents rather than broad-brush “anti-U.S.A.” protests.[quote] Would westerners living in China have local Chinese trying to physically assault them?[/quote]Again, doubtful. Most assaults seem to be spur of the moment random violence or case-specific rather than just “beat up the long-nose American.”[quote] If so, I’d feel sorry for every person teaching English or studying chinese in China.[/quote]They could turn this to their advantage. Play on the sympathies…“Buy poor me a beer!”

[quote]This is just a thought, but what do you all think?[/quote] I think its a lovely day…so far.

Yeah the old grind may be right----the USA could declare Taiwan its own , not recognizing the ROC govt but kicking it out. That will certainly stir up a lot of sediment.

[quote=“Hartzell”]In order to justify “recognition” of ROC/Taiwan under international law by the USA, a most likely prerequisite would be that someone would have to offer definitive proof that ROC/Taiwan meets the Montevideo Convention’s criteria for statehood in the international community.

In regard to this issue, a very superficial analysis (which is what most “scholars” offer), appears to show that ROC/Taiwan does meet the four criteria of the Montevideo Convention. However, a more in-depth analysis shows that ROC/Taiwan meets none of the necessary criteria for statehood.

The full analysis is here –
civil-taiwan.org/tchart1.htm

Based on the principle of conquest, Taiwan would have better luck trying to become recognized as an “overseas territory” of whichever country conducted all military attacks against the island in the WWII period. Under international law, “conquest” is a fully recognized method of legally acquiring territory, and that territory is held under military occupation until finalization of its political status. (Taiwan has still not reached a finalization of its political status, in case you hadn’t noticed. That is why its status is always described as being “unsettled” or “undetermined.”) I am still researching that historical data regarding the military attacks, and if you need to know the answer, please give me a PM.[/quote]

thread should be locked after this post.

[quote=“Deuce Dropper”][quote=“Hartzell”]In order to justify “recognition” of ROC/Taiwan under international law by the USA, a most likely prerequisite would be that someone would have to offer definitive proof that ROC/Taiwan meets the Montevideo Convention’s criteria for statehood in the international community.

In regard to this issue, a very superficial analysis (which is what most “scholars” offer), appears to show that ROC/Taiwan does meet the four criteria of the Montevideo Convention. However, a more in-depth analysis shows that ROC/Taiwan meets none of the necessary criteria for statehood.

The full analysis is here –
civil-taiwan.org/tchart1.htm

Based on the principle of conquest, Taiwan would have better luck trying to become recognized as an “overseas territory” of whichever country conducted all military attacks against the island in the WWII period. Under international law, “conquest” is a fully recognized method of legally acquiring territory, and that territory is held under military occupation until finalization of its political status. (Taiwan has still not reached a finalization of its political status, in case you hadn’t noticed. That is why its status is always described as being “unsettled” or “undetermined.”) I am still researching that historical data regarding the military attacks, and if you need to know the answer, please give me a PM.[/quote]

thread should be locked after this post.[/quote]

Why? It’s one interpretation of Taiwan’s status, not the definitive voice of reason. And we’ve seen what’s happens when this highly technical legal interpretation meets the real world: it’s rejected as irrelevant. Taiwan’s status is a political issue that will be decided by the major powers and not by international law.

The only salient point in the whole argument rests on the assumption that the current government is Taiwan is still, after 16 years of direct elections, a government in exile. But if you reject that, and I believe most courts would reject that, then the rest falls apart.

If we were to wake up on a Monday morning and read that the United States had precipitously decided to recognize Taiwan, it would be hard for even Tom Clancey to write the script.

First off, politics is always full of surprises, but the one you have suggested is just too outragous to comprehend.

I think the more realistic (but still unthinkably insane) would be to ask what would happen if Taiwan unadvisedly applies for re-admittance into the UN with tethered support from the USA.

By definition,Taiwan claiming independence is (and has been) grounds for a Mainland military response. This is no secret.

With regard to the Mainland English teachers: I wouldn’t think they’d have anything to worry about. Those here in Taipei on the other hand; they’d probably be running for the hills as the missiles rain down!

There will also be thousands of US embassy staffers throughout China finding themselves in a precarious situations as ‘One China’ would void Sino-US diplomatic ties under these circumstances.

In short, The United States recognizing Taiwan will be interpreted as an Act of War in the eyes of the Chinese.

The Chinese would likely not attack though. My guess is they would use some sort of blockade and isolate the island in a siege tactic. The Chinese will not win a head to head war against the United States; they Chinese know this. I believe it was their own Sun Tzu that said “Every Battle is won before it is even fought”

T

Okay, I’ll play. Let’s say the next U.S. president is a die-hard Taiwan supporter–like Reagan, if he had kept his campaign promises–who recognizes the ROC or ROT. (Let’s also assume that Taiwan is led by a government which would be agreeable to this.) Would this mean war with China? No, that’s absurd–the decision to go to war (on both sides) would depend on many other things, such as economics and domestic political manuevering, not to mention military issues. Would it mean recognition by the UN? No–China has a veto, remember? Of course China would have to do something (for appearances’ sake, if nothing else). An interesting aspect would be their economic response–after all, they wouldn’t want to punish businessmen who are mostly in their pocket. And they depend on their ties with the U.S. economy even more, for the sake of their own stability.

I just read an article http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2011_cmpr_final.pdf about China’s military ambitions from some US official and he states that China isn’t likly be able to attack Taiwan before 2020. By 2020 China will have amphibious military vehicles and trained soldiers to attack mazu and penghu in a rush and block the straight before the USA even realize something happens. They will then attack the west coast. It says China has to be quick with that before international oppositions occurs. They don’t have the power right now to attack Taiwan that quick. The article also states the reasons for China to declare war:

  • formal declaration of Taiwan independence;
  • undefined moves toward Taiwan independence;
  • internal unrest on Taiwan;
  • Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons;
  • indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue on unification;
  • foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs; and, foreign troops stationed on Taiwan.

Consider this simple question, what does the US stand to gain by recognizing Taiwan? Something? Anything?

Nothing, as far as I can see. However there is a lot the US will lose with such a recognition, diplomatic relations with China for starter. Economic responses, maybe even a war(but I doubt it) are certainly possible.

So why ponder about something that’s never going to happen? Think about what the US would more likely do if they’re somehow forced to settle the Taiwan issue, no, not them recognizing Taiwan, the other way, THEM GIVING TAIWAN BACK TO CHINA. That’s far more likely if the US is tired about the status quo and it’s a scenario the US would have a lot to gain. Some commentators are already speculating about that possibility.

Yes, and they have been soundly slammed for it. Are you not aware the US is now attempting to re-establish itself as a dominant force in the Pacific? Giving China the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” would be self-defeating in the extreme.

Some of you just don’t seem to realize just how strategically placed Taiwan is. With Taiwan, China would be able to control some of the busiest sea lanes in the world and project itself military over the pacific much more easily.

Yes, and they have been soundly slammed for it. Are you not aware the US is now attempting to re-establish itself as a dominant force in the Pacific? Giving China the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” would be self-defeating in the extreme.

Some of you just don’t seem to realize just how strategically placed Taiwan is. With Taiwan, China would be able to control some of the busiest sea lanes in the world and project itself military over the pacific much more easily.[/quote]

Have to agree with MM here, I think the strategic position of Taiwan is worth a lot, more than we might imagine. The on-going situation with China’s claim over disputed areas of sea is not just with Taiwan though. The bottom line for now, is economic stability and both China and the US are prepared to play nicely. The US knows the strategic potential of the Pacific area and will want to keep in the game, in fear of China taking control of the whole area. The Chinese POV is pretty clear on Taiwan. The international POV is not, some politicians don’t even know where Taiwan is! The outcome that seems most probable from a Chinese and International POV is a situation like HK but, Taiwan would not accept, so less than a 1% chance of happening in reality. Is war in the traditional sense likely? No. I’m sure there are those that would like to see a war but, the situation is unlikely to change. My wishful sentiment is that eventually China will accept the situation. I won’t put a timescale on that though!

There are still those in Taiwan who believe that China is actually theirs. As in ROC! The history of the KMT party and why it came to Taiwan etc etc… The sentiment of these supporters is that they were always going to take China back as that is home.

Glad I got my :2cents: in the debate! LOL!

[quote=“Mucha Man”]Yes, and they have been soundly slammed for it. Are you not aware the US is now attempting to re-establish itself as a dominant force in the Pacific? Giving China the “unsinkable aircraft carrier” would be self-defeating in the extreme.

Some of you just don’t seem to realize just how strategically placed Taiwan is. With Taiwan, China would be able to control some of the busiest sea lanes in the world and project itself military over the pacific much more easily.[/quote]

Re-establish itself as a dominant force? Weird, I didn’t realize the US ever left.

So you’re basically saying that US is in a cold war with China and US certainly doesn’t want to be behind. Well, there’s no cold war between the two countries. None. Some people may think there’s a cold war going on with China because US officials and the western media is actively manufacturing it (to keep defense spending up I guess). But in reality that’s simply not true. You can’t be cold war-ing by yourself. It takes two to tango my friend, and trust me, China is not interested in any sophomoric geopolitical pissing contest the US had with the Soviet Union. “Unsinkable aircraft carrier?”, who cares. Control sea lanes? Who says China wants to “control” those sea lanes. Kind of remind me of the scene from Canadian bacon where the US president wanted to get the cold war started again and the Russian president replied “You won, you’re in charge of the world now, don’t be a sore winner.”

And when the US decides they’re not going to pretend they’re in a cold war with China anymore, Taiwan will really be in trouble. Because then Taiwan won’t be an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” anymore, it’ll just be an island along the Chinese coast. In that case Taiwanese people better start clamoring that they’re actually a US territory (a la Richard Hartzell) because then that’s about the only thing that’ll keep the US from handing Taiwan back to China.

[quote=“Mucha Man”]

Some of you just don’t seem to realize just how strategically placed Taiwan is. With Taiwan, China would be able to control some of the busiest sea lanes in the world and project itself military over the pacific much more easily.[/quote]

Taiwan is just a dot off China’s coastline. It has almost zero strategic value to China because there are no military operations it could launch from Taiwan that it cannot already more easily accomplish from bases on the mainland. Taiwan has strategic value only as a base for foreign forces.

But precisely because of that it has huge strategic value to China. Its very worth to foreign forces makes Chinese control of Taiwan important in protecting its flank, in denying it to potential enemies.

[quote=“monkey”][quote=“Muzha Man”]

Some of you just don’t seem to realize just how strategically placed Taiwan is. With Taiwan, China would be able to control some of the busiest sea lanes in the world and project itself military over the pacific much more easily.[/quote]

Taiwan is just a dot off China’s coastline. It has almost zero strategic value to China because there are no military operations it could launch from Taiwan that it cannot already more easily accomplish from bases on the mainland. Taiwan has strategic value only as a base for foreign forces.[/quote]

There are countless policy papers and studies refuting this claim. A great deal of China’s exports goes through the Strait, as does much imported oil from the Mid East. In any future war between China and the US (which would almost certainly involve Japan) China would find itself with broken supply lines.

As for sheer military usefulness it is a bit odd to say that Taiwan is of great value to foreign powers but not China. If for example, Taiwan is of great use for the US in the event of a war with China, then of course it is of use to China to prevent the US from maintaining this advantage. It’s like an army securing a hill that overlooks its camps so that it can’t be used by an enemy to launch an easy attack. (edit. I see Taffy beat me to the point.)

[quote]Looking at its geography, China is “contained” by a proximate chain of islands extending southward from Japan, through the Ryukyu’s, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia.

To get into the Pacific Ocean, China’s naval vessels must go through one of various choke points between these islands. Its merchant marine (as well as its navy), in order to sail to the Middle East and Africa where China acquires most of its energy and natural resources, must go south through the Strait of Malacca, which is equally constraining.

Some strategists refer to the island chain in East Asia as the “Great Wall in reverse.” China’s naval officers and strategists see China as “boxed in.” Clearly geography does not favor China in its goal of expanding its influence into the Pacific Ocean.

If Taiwan were to become part of China, this would change. China’s navy would no longer be hemmed in. As a matter of fact, it would be able to extend its reach to the “second island chain”—Guam, the Marianas and some other small islands in the central Pacific—not much of a barrier.

Very important, Taiwan’s east-coast ports would give China’s submarines, which are a mainstay of its navy, a huge benefit. From Taiwan, they would be able to quickly get into deep water where they could not be detected and could proceed to the American west coast to show their wares and threaten the United States.[/quote]

Sure, that’s why if some other country wants to invade Taiwan so they can use it as a base they better be prepared for the Chinese military too.

[quote=“Mucha Man”][quote=“monkey”][quote=“Muzha Man”]

Some of you just don’t seem to realize just how strategically placed Taiwan is. With Taiwan, China would be able to control some of the busiest sea lanes in the world and project itself military over the pacific much more easily.[/quote]

Taiwan is just a dot off China’s coastline. It has almost zero strategic value to China because there are no military operations it could launch from Taiwan that it cannot already more easily accomplish from bases on the mainland. Taiwan has strategic value only as a base for foreign forces.[/quote]

There are countless policy papers and studies refuting this claim. A great deal of China’s exports goes through the Strait, as does much imported oil from the Mid East. In any future war between China and the US (which would almost certainly involve Japan) China would find itself with broken supply lines.

As for sheer military usefulness it is a bit odd to say that Taiwan is of great value to foreign powers but not China. If for example, Taiwan is of great use for the US in the event of a war with China, then of course it is of use to China to prevent the US from maintaining this advantage. It’s like an army securing a hill that overlooks its camps so that it can’t be used by an enemy to launch an easy attack. (edit. I see Taffy beat me to the point.)

[quote]Looking at its geography, China is “contained” by a proximate chain of islands extending southward from Japan, through the Ryukyu’s, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia.

To get into the Pacific Ocean, China’s naval vessels must go through one of various choke points between these islands. Its merchant marine (as well as its navy), in order to sail to the Middle East and Africa where China acquires most of its energy and natural resources, must go south through the Strait of Malacca, which is equally constraining.

Some strategists refer to the island chain in East Asia as the “Great Wall in reverse.” China’s naval officers and strategists see China as “boxed in.” Clearly geography does not favor China in its goal of expanding its influence into the Pacific Ocean.

If Taiwan were to become part of China, this would change. China’s navy would no longer be hemmed in. As a matter of fact, it would be able to extend its reach to the “second island chain”—Guam, the Marianas and some other small islands in the central Pacific—not much of a barrier.

Very important, Taiwan’s east-coast ports would give China’s submarines, which are a mainstay of its navy, a huge benefit. From Taiwan, they would be able to quickly get into deep water where they could not be detected and could proceed to the American west coast to show their wares and threaten the United States.[/quote][/quote]

But that’s not what you wrote …

You made it sound like if China was to acquire Taiwan, then its military power would somehow be hugely expanded, which is obviously not the case. The WW2 “unsinkable aircraft carrier” mentality just doesn’t apply in the modern day. China doesn’t need an unsinkable aircraft carrier and all military infrastructure would be quickly destroyed here in the event of war, making it kind of useless for invading forces also.
China would use nukes before Taiwan could be used as a staging post for an invasion. The island is about as useful militarily as tits on a bull - it’s only value to the Chinese is political.