What would Taiwan be like if Japan never acquired the island in 1895?

Politics Taiwan Politics
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What would Taiwan be like if Japan never acquired the island in 1895?

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The French or the American would have acquired it. They already showed interest and action at that time.

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The French or the American would have acquired it. They already showed interest and action at that time.[/quote]

LOL
 No.

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The French or the American would have acquired it. They already showed interest and action at that time.[/quote]

LOL
 No.[/quote]

Probably would have had to go through the Cultural Revolution

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Would have fought alongside the Allied Powers instead of the Axis Powers.

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Seeing as Taiwan was the consolation prize for Japan when China and the West wouldn’t let it annex Korea like it originally wanted, I’d imagine that it Taiwan hadn’t come under Japanese control in 1895 it would have meant that all Korea had fallen. Maybe the Russian Pacific Squadron in 1905 would have sailed the Formosa Straits rather than the Batanes Channel on its way to destiny in Tsushima.

I guess another way to think of the question is what if the Republic of Formosa had succeeded in defeating Japan in 1895 and thus survived as an independent nation . . .

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[quote]U.S. SCHEME of ACQUISITION of FORMOSA


American interests in Formosa initiated by Commander Ogden, U.S. Navy, in 1849. From then on, not only once American tried to annex Formosa, but on several occasions.

Earlier in the year 1849, John W. Davis, Commissioner of the United States to China, reported to the Department of State that the Manchu government might grant mining privileges as the British were active in the region. Thus Commander Ogden sailed the U.S.S. Dolphin to Keelung, arrived in the same year, 1849.

After the visit, Commander Ogden enthusiastically dispatched the news back to America that the coal was a necessity “in the age of steam navigation, new navies, aspiration for Pacific dominance, and steel-constructed ships.” Such was the inspiration for Commodore Matthew Perry a decade later, who believed Formosa “a tempting target for foreign naval and mercantile interests.”

Right after Ogden, Charles W. Bradley, the U.S. Consul at Amoy [ 滈 門 ], made another report in 1850, reassuring the interests in coal. By 1856, new U.S. Consul at Amoy, Thomas Hart Hyatt, urged further that the United States acquired permission from the Manchu authority to procure coal in Formosa.

Commodore Perry was, in fact, the ideological initiator of the ideal of American expansion in the Far East and was also the original proponent of the strategic proposal to secure Formosa for the United States. It was rather nationalistic with an adventuring, vigorous, ambitious American world dream considering at that period America was still very much against expansionism and colonialism.

At first, Commodore Perry argued about his feeling of “Manifest destiny,” which was later repeated by Alfred T. Mahan, world known naval officer and writer, 1840 – 1914, and his followers. “Manifest destiny” was envisaged into a doctrine, which looked to territorial acquisition away from home such as islands in the Pacific.

Then, Perry applied his doctrine on Formosa, voicing the idea of an American settlement on the island. He noticed the importance of emerging steam vessels which needed coal from Formosa and the significant fact that Formosa, rich and wealthy, was practically independent from the Manchu Empire although it was a part of Fu-Kien [ 犏 ć»ș ] province. Perry soon evolved his thought into pursuing Formosa as a full-fledged protectorate. When he officially recommended in 1856 for occupation of Formosa, he was way ahead of his countrymen, pushing America to the Far East. Again, it was quite a significant departure from traditional American belief, having renounced colonialism or any aggrandizement beyond its own borders.

Townsend Harris, U.S. Consul general to Japan, was a second advocator for the possession of Formosa. After Commodore Perry had established a foothold in Japan for America, Harris became the first U.S. Consul general there. He might not have seen Formosa, but he shared Perry’s fervor for expanding territory in the Far East and urged the acquisition of the island.

From all the information collected, Harris was struck with Formosa as a potential naval depot and as a source of commerce and trade. He sent a letter to his friend, Secretary of State Marcy, which was personally submitted to President Pierce by Marcy.

The letter covered the history of the island, its resources, and its role of international trade. Harris introduced Formosa with its mild climate, profitable exports of rice, sugar, camphor, sulphur, coal, and fine woods. He went further to explain the suitability of growing coffee and livestock, the distance of the island to Japan and to China, its convenient location for ship harboring, trans-shipment depot for merchandise, and its vital position as a radiating point for Christianity.

Harris also expounded that, “In view of rapidly increasing population of California and Oregon, the probable completion of a railway from the Mississippi to San Francisco, . . . the United States must realize a deep and increasing interest in Formosa, for it is almost the gate by which the commerce of the West Coast of American must pass to China.”

He cited that purchase might establish a favorable contrast to the outright seizure of Hong Kong by England. “If the Chinese held back, the United States might hint that it would purchase from the aborigines the title of the West coast. . . .”

Harris, as opposed to Perry’s use of navy to conquest or occupy, proposed to purchase Formosa. He even set up several considerations to press the Manchu to part with the island, almost an imperialistic impulse. He “threatened” the Manchu Dynasty to give up Formosa because it’ll be lost in the first war with any of the Western powers.

Well, 40 years later, China had to cede Formosa permanently to another nation, Japan, not a Western power though. Imagine if the United States did purchase Formosa in 1850s, the entire political strategic situation in Asia-Pacific today or during the WWII would have been quite different. Yet, such idea of buying Formosa certainly encouraged the grand purchase of Alaska in 1887, only 30 years after several attempts of acquiring Formosa.

A New England trader, Gideon Nye, residing in Canton [Kwan-Tung for today], started a business colony in Formosa over which the American flag flew for over a year. He fell in love with Formosa so much that he strongly advocated to annex the island.
Having lived in Macao and Canton for 55 years, Nye was a prominent American entrepreneur by 1854. He had a great success in tea trade with American fast-sailing Clipper ships. Somehow Taiping Rebellion in southern China disturbed his supply of teas. He thus entered into camphor trade in Formosa. Eventually he built a colony there.

During the years 1856-57, Nye served as a catalytic agent that inspired Dr. Peter Parker to acquire Formosa for the United States. Actually, Nye himself had a “Formosa Annexation Scheme.” His arguments of securing the island as an American business protectorate were based on humanity, commerce, and navigation. He was afraid that England or France would take Formosa over as prize before America. And he wanted the government to prepare at least ten million dollars in cash for it.

Another major supporter was Dr. Peter Parker, a medical missionary turned diplomat. He was serving as American commissioner at Canton. He simply admired Nye and his idea of obtaining Formosa. Parker went even further to believe that he had a mission to help Formosan get away from oppression from the Manchu. If and when the United States occupied Formosa, people there would be free from their suffering. Therefore, he strongly persuaded two American presidents, Franklin Pierce (1853-57) and James Buchanan (1857-61) to acquire Formosa for both strategic and commercial motivations and for humanitarian purpose, of course.
The persuasion did not succeed. Perhaps both Pierce and Buchanan were too occupied with slavery and other serious domestic issues prior to the Civil War era. They did not foresee in the mid-19th century that the Far East Asia was, after all, not so far and its security and economy were very close to the interests of the United States.

P. S. Here is an interesting note that, Alaska with land area of 571,951 square mile, was bought from Russia in 1887 for $7.2 million, while Formosa, with land area of 12,456 square mile, only 1/46th of Alaska’s, was priced at $10 million in 1857.

by Shu Yuan Hsieh, Professor of International law [/quote]

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shittier

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If Taiwan was not part of Japan during WWII, would the war have ended earlier or later?

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British, Americans and French all thought about acquiring Taiwan towards the end of the Qing dynasty. All 3 invaded Taiwan at one point. The French occupied Jilong and Penghu for nearly a year, and send Liu Ming-chuan sneaking out of Taipei with treasure. Liu was unfortunately stopped by the people at Bangka and they held him in Longshan temple until Liu promised to stay and protect the city.

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It’s highly unlikely any of the three would’ve actually taken the effort to fully colonize the island, though.

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It’s highly unlikely any of the three would’ve actually taken the effort to fully colonize the island, though.[/quote]

Yes


The idea that the US would have colonized Taiwan is especially funny. When did the US do anything even remotely similar in Asia or the Pacific? The Philippines? No, that was due to the Spanish-American War
American Samoa? No, the island was not claimed by any international power and developed into a spout between the US and Germany.

Taiwan was annexed by Qing-China in 1683 and was an official province by 1887. The idea that the Americans (or the British or French) would have went to war with China to get Taiwan in the late 19th century is humorous. Even sofun’s ridiculous “proof of concept” only refers to possible American ambition to annex Taiwan during the mid-19th century (before becoming a province of China), stuff that clearly never came to fruition. How on earth does that provide any sort of convincing argument that if Japan hadn’t taken Taiwan in 1895, the US would have?

If it hadn’t been ceded to Japan in 1895, Taiwan would have continued to be a province of Qing-China until the Qing’s downfall in 1911, after which it would have been a province of the ROC. Anything beyond that would require wild speculation.

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^It would’ve inevitably wound up in Japan’s clutches barring other significant changes beyond a slightly different Treaty of Shimonseki. Tokyo’s designs over SE Asia and China made Taiwan strategically vital down the road in ways it wasn’t in 1895. I would imagine that Japanese rule would be significantly harsher if it acquired Taiwan later given the impetus to develop a booming colony would no longer be there.

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Scenario where Western Imperialism had not acquired Formosa:

The Manchu went belly up some 15 years later after it granted Korea’s Independence. Considering such collapse, we can safely bet that the Western part of Formosa would became a separate independent kingdom(s). There was no love whatsoever between the Formosan and the Chinese, as history proved.

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Alright. I admit that later Japanese acquisition of Taiwan is also a strong possibility.

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It’s highly unlikely any of the three would’ve actually taken the effort to fully colonize the island, though.[/quote]

Yes


The idea that the US would have colonized Taiwan is especially funny. When did the US do anything even remotely similar in Asia or the Pacific? The Philippines? No, that was due to the Spanish-American War
American Samoa? No, the island was not claimed by any international power and developed into a spout between the US and Germany.[/quote]

No one forced the Americans to keep the Philippines. In fact the Philippines revolutionaries fought a war against the US for 4 years between 1899 and 1902. So yes, the US totally wanted a piece of the Philippines, and they were willing to kill Filipinos for it. Not to mention how the US faked the USS Maine sinking as a Spanish attack to get control over Cuba in the first place. The US was very much on an imperialism path.

[quote]“There is the case of the Philippines. I have tried hard, and yet I cannot for the life of me comprehend how we got into that mess. Perhaps we could not have avoided it—perhaps it was inevitable that we should come to be fighting the natives of those islands—but I cannot understand it, and have never been able to get at the bottom of the origin of our antagonism to the natives. I thought we should act as their protector—not try to get them under our heel. We were to relieve them from Spanish tyranny to enable them to set up a government of their own, and we were to stand by and see that it got a fair trial. It was not to be a government according to our ideas, but a government that represented the feeling of the majority of the Filipinos, a government according to Filipino ideas. That would have been a worthy mission for the United States. But now—why, we have got into a mess, a quagmire from which each fresh step renders the difficulty of extrication immensely greater. I’m sure I wish I could see what we were getting out of it, and all it means to us as a nation.”

–Mark Twain, October 6, 1900[/quote]

[quote=“Taiwanguy”]
Taiwan was annexed by Qing-China in 1683 and was an official province by 1887. The idea that the Americans (or the British or French) would have went to war with China to get Taiwan in the late 19th century is humorous.[/quote]

Again, incorrect information. The US did invade Taiwan, and they didn’t goto war with China to do it, because the Qing government considered the Aboriginal territory as another country and outside of Qing’s jurisdiction.

It’s known as the Rover incident:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rover_incident

The Americans sent two war ships with 181 men to attack an aboriginal tribe. The commanding officer Charles W. Le Gendre then used this experience to serve as a consultant for the Japanese version of this incident, where the Japanese tested waters for invading Taiwan.

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It’s highly unlikely any of the three would’ve actually taken the effort to fully colonize the island, though.[/quote]

Yes


The idea that the US would have colonized Taiwan is especially funny. When did the US do anything even remotely similar in Asia or the Pacific? The Philippines? No, that was due to the Spanish-American War
American Samoa? No, the island was not claimed by any international power and developed into a spout between the US and Germany.[/quote]

No one forced the Americans to keep the Philippines. In fact the Philippines revolutionaries fought a war against the US for 4 years between 1899 and 1902. So yes, the US totally wanted a piece of the Philippines, and they were willing to kill Filipinos for it.

[quote=“Taiwanguy”]
Taiwan was annexed by Qing-China in 1683 and was an official province by 1887. The idea that the Americans (or the British or French) would have went to war with China to get Taiwan in the late 19th century is humorous.[/quote]

Again, incorrect information. The US did invade Taiwan, and they didn’t goto war with China to do it, because the Qing government considered the Aboriginal territory as another country and outside of Qing’s jurisdiction.

It’s known as the Rover incident:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rover_incident

The Americans sent two war ships with 181 men to attack an aboriginal tribe. The commanding officer Charles W. Le Gendre then used this experience to serve as a consultant for the Japanese version of this incident, where the Japanese tested waters for invading Taiwan.[/quote]

And how does that conflict with my statement? I said “The idea that the Americans would have went to war with CHINA to GET TAIWAN in the LATE 19TH CENTURY is humorous.” And to combat that you responded with an example of Americans sending warships to attack an ABORIGINAL TRIBE that had KILLED AMERICAN SAILORS in the MID 19TH CENTURY. Nothing about that incident is in conflict with my statement.

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[quote=“Taiwanguy”]

And how does that conflict with my statement? I said “The idea that the Americans would have went to war with CHINA to GET TAIWAN in the LATE 19TH CENTURY is humorous.” And to combat that you responded with an example of Americans sending warships to attack an ABORIGINAL TRIBE that had KILLED American SAILORS in the MID 19TH CENTURY. Nothing about that incident is in conflict with my statement.[/quote]

Unless your original statement meant if the US wanted to get Taiwan, they didn’t need to go through Qing, your original statement would be incorrect, first because it isn’t that humorous, as the US did sent warships to Taiwan and killed a bunch of people, and second, for the fact that the US would have done the same (invaded Taiwan and killing Paiwan Aboriginals) had the Qing government claimed jurisdiction but refused to do anything about punishing the Aboriginals.

Of course the US didn’t just want to punish the aboriginals, as the “U.S. SCHEME of ACQUISITION of FORMOSA” article by Professor Shu-Yuan Hsieh pointed out. By 1867, the US had been contemplating on annexing Taiwan for a while.

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[quote=“hansioux”][quote=“Taiwanguy”]

And how does that conflict with my statement? I said “The idea that the Americans would have went to war with CHINA to GET TAIWAN in the LATE 19TH CENTURY is humorous.” And to combat that you responded with an example of Americans sending warships to attack an ABORIGINAL TRIBE that had KILLED American SAILORS in the MID 19TH CENTURY. Nothing about that incident is in conflict with my statement.[/quote]

Unless your original statement meant if the US wanted to get Taiwan, they didn’t need to go through Qing, your original statement would be incorrect, first because it isn’t that humorous, as the US did sent warships to Taiwan and killed a bunch of people, and second, for the fact that the US would have done the same (invaded Taiwan and killing Paiwan Aboriginals) had the Qing government claimed jurisdiction but refused to do anything about punishing the Aboriginals.

Of course the US didn’t just want to punish the aboriginals, as the “U.S. SCHEME of ACQUISITION of FORMOSA” article by Professor Shu-Yuan Hsieh pointed out. By 1867, the US had been contemplating on annexing Taiwan for a while.[/quote]

And they didn’t do it


Listen, I don’t think we are arguing the same point. The question posed in this thread was what would Taiwan be like if Japan hadn’t acquired the island in 1895. I am addressing that question. Some of you have suggested the idea that America would have annexed it
That means that you are claiming that after 1895, AFTER the entirety of Taiwan was declared a province by Qing-China that a Western power would have attempted to and successfully wrested the province from Qing control. I think that’s absolutely absurd
And Sofun’s mumblings of a few crazy American naval officers (The US Scheme of Acquisition of Formosa- not so incidentally penned by a DPP member and TI-advocate) that were flatly rejected by top US leaders does not at all change that.

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While the US became decisively more imperialistic under Teddy Roosevelt, there was still significant domestic opposition toward acquisition of colonies and the Open Door Policy would make war with China in pursuit of territorial gain pretty illogical.