Right. But the same considerations apply to that race.
He doesn’t have time to spend 8 years as Vice President (if Ma would have him) so he has to take on Ma and win. He came close in 2000 but the people of Taiwan at least, seem to see Ma as more heavyweight than Lien Chan and there no longer is an imperative to vote for a non-KMT candidate just to achieve a first transfer of power (if that was ever a factor).
So he doesn’t give a shit about the more likely consequences of his actions because they’re his last chance - and personal ambition is more important than his team’s success.
As long as he CAN split the vote, then he has political power to be used for whatever purpose. No more, no less. His entry into the race is a way to prove that he has that power.
Sure. He’s flexing his muscles, showing his power. But is he likely to withdraw? Presumably, for a big enough price even James Soong can be bought!
If he didn’t withdraw, he wouldn’t be very popular with anyone who might want a blue win (except members of the cult of Soong) - overstepping the mark and negating his power.
So, when does he cash in his chips? Does he have that judgement? Does Ma face him down (maybe his best option, even at the expense of Taipei), or show himself to be Soong’s bitch?
So perhaps both Ma and Soong are preparing to sacrifice Taipei to consolidate their powerbase for 2008.
Soong’s name isn’t worthless. He still has significant influence, and he’s not going to fade from the scene. I don’t think he contests the spot if Ma doesn’t back away, but even if he’s not the consensus pan-Blue candidate for the Taipei mayor job… he might win some concessions from the KMT for the legislative elections during the end of 2007.
If he actually does run for the mayor race, he is going to lose. If he actually causes the Greenies to win, that will be the end of his political career. Expect a deal with KMT, soooon.
soong has shown before that he’ll go all the way to the wall in such a situation, you can thank him for chen ever becoming president. you can bet his price if there is one is not going to be one the kmt can easily swallow. should be interesting. i’m going to go out on a limb now and predict he’s in on election day.
He was the man primarily responsible for letting Lee Teng-hui move up the echelon of the KMT. KMT insiders call him Wu Sangui for opening the doors of the KMT to Lee.
Split the Blue vote and caused CSB to win the presidency.
Pocketed taxpayer money for his own personal gain.
Hasn’t the guy had enough? I can’t wait for the day when he is in total political oblivion.
Well, unless you guys also missed the point, he is kicking Ma’s but for what Ma’s doing in the shades. If Soong doesn’t do anything, he will loose both power and party. Ma’s trying to convince the PFP legislators to come to the KMT (allready some changed coats) and if Soong doesn’t act, it can be seen as if he is uncapable of fighting Ma.
Ma needs the PFP legislators to prevent DPP’s power, but he doesn’t want to have free radicals moving around. He wants them in his own courtyard playing his game.
It’s looking more and more like a stare-down, and I don’t think Ma can afford to look weak on this one.
If:
Neither Soong nor Ma budge - at worst, the DPP wins Taipei, but no matter what, Soong will be finished politically. The KMT loses Taipei, but what’s left of Soong’s supporters return to the fold of the KMT.
Ma cuts a deal with Soong - The KMT may still keep Taipei, but Ma himself is seen as weak, and the “Soong problem” remains.
The DPP is hardly the KMT’s biggest problem - they absolutely have to rid themselves of the split vote.
Agreed. Ma needs a fight to prove he has balls. It’s worth losing Taipei for him.
Do the DPP stand a chance, even with a split blue vote? Who is likely to be more popular Hau or Soong? What are the possible outcomes?
Winning would obviously be good for Soong.
A close second to the the KMT’s win would be good for him because it would show he still had the power to split the vote (but didn’t actually cause the loss of Taipei). A less close second might just prove that the Blues have ample votes in Taipei and the KMT can rely on most of them.
If Hau wins, with Soong third it’s not good for Soong since he’s an alsoran.
If the DPP wins with Soong third, Soong has proved that he can split the vote but he’s still an alsoran. He gets resentment from the KMT without showing any real muscle.
If the DPP wins with Soong second, he’s proved his power and humiliated the KMT. Ma has stood his ground and lost - proving that Soong must go to ensure blue victory in 2008.
There are more reasons for him to stay in the race to the end than for him to blink and take a compromise from Ma. He needs to appear like a leader or he’ll keep losing people to the true blues and will not be able to recruit fresh blood. The added value is we get to know how much support Soong really has in Taipei. For Soong, he will have to show Hau real numbers to get favors from him if Hau is elected.
I totally disagree with that statement. If the pan-Blue loses Taipei because these two guys play chicken, Ma will also look like a complete ass in front of both the KMT and the PFP. Maybe Wang ends up the nominee for the 2008 election, after all.
On the other hand, if Soong becomes the mayor of Taipei… really now, who in the pan-Blue camp is going to get very upset over this?
I totally disagree with that statement. If the pan-Blue loses Taipei because these two guys play chicken, Ma will also look like a complete ass in front of both the KMT and the PFP. Maybe Wang ends up the nominee for the 2008 election, after all.
On the other hand, if Soong becomes the mayor of Taipei… really now, who in the pan-Blue camp is going to get very upset over this?[/quote]
sure it gives the dpp a big shot. don’t forget li ow is in there too for a few%. he may pull out though. as for soong, he has no chance of winning or gaining more votes than Hao and he knows it. Hao can certainly still win but it makes it a battle for him.
Is there any bad blood between Soong and Hao Po-Tsun? just wondering.
[quote=“cctang”]
I totally disagree with that statement. If the pan-Blue loses Taipei because these two guys play chicken, Ma will also look like a complete ass in front of both the KMT and the PFP. Maybe Wang ends up the nominee for the 2008 election, after all.[/quote]
i can’t see it. ma is going to be able to rightly and convincingly lift up his arms and say, don’t look at me. it’s not like the kmt can back out of the election to make way for soong, and if soong has terms they can’t be announced publicly, even if they were ma can play the “we took the high road” card.
and if bozo the clown becomes mayor we’ll all get funny hats.