Where will the DOW be at the end of September 2009?
Above 15,000
Between 10,000 and 14,999
Between 9,999 and 8,000
Between 7,999 and 6,000
Between 5,999 and 4,000
Between 3,999 and 2,000
Below 1,999
Begging for soup with the rest of us.
0voters
We never thought we would see 10,000 again but here we are. So now what? Where do you predict it will be one year from now? For simplicities sake, I have chosen close of the market in the U.S., U.S. time on September 30, 2009. (I know, but we can at least see the market level at the end of the day on Sept. 30, and that’s the goal.
Now, I will be at happy hour in October and I will pay for one of your favorite beverages up to 200 NT each for those winning entrants. One vote only. For those folks I don’t know, you better have a long-timer vouch for you but, I’m pretty easy. OHHHHH! I see so many ways to cheat but since cheaters always lose, I know you will respect the rules. Have fun. BTW, I predict under 4,000. I hope somebody takes pity and buys me at least one before I go broke.
We won’t hit 4K, man, it’s not THAT bad. 6K is about the lower limit. Realistically, the 8K level is where we’re headed by late 2009, although I don’t foresee the market stopping there. The U.S. economy faces too many headwinds for the next twenty years for the markets to make any startling recoveries.
I’m not sure the U.S. will even be on square one after this whole thing has played out. The dollar is dead, that’s a cert, but how and when is the world going to switch to oil pricing and gold pricing in a different manner, and how will that affect the trends and pricing?
I’ve just planted another great slab of money in gold today. Let’s just see how this next month plays out. Of course I have a sneaky suspicion that the U.S. is going to have to back dollars with gold sooner or later if it wants to keep breathing for a few moments longer. That might again spell a sooner end though as that would provide foreign banks an escape route to cash in all reserves. Talk about rocks and hard places. I’m F***ed if I can come up with a solution to save the U.S. dollar right now. It seems that every road leads to hell as far as I can see. That may be a reason for the implementation of the Amero sooner than they planned, but how to implement it at this time?
All these unanswerable questions are the very reason to buy into gold, even at this seemingly high price. Without a solid game plan, only gold can sustain people’s savings.
Does anyone have a theory on the effect on house prices?
Mine is that job losses will rocket in the next twelve months which will mean more defaults on mortgages, faster sell off rates by those needing short term cash and rental rates possibly going up or stabilizing only if potential renters believe the financial woes and poor job market is a short term problem. Continued drops in mortgage lending rates are critical though, as well as extended mortgages. This will of course further add to hyper inflation though, which will only lengthen market recovery time. Again, another reason to keep money in gold at this time.
I’m really trying to think about the future objectively here, but my past two year forecast has played out perfectly so far, all resulting on the growing need for gold and the diminishing returns of cash. I can’t help wondering if I am a lucky doom sayer or really on the ball. And if I’m really on the ball, then for how long can I maintain my accurate forecasts based on simple market logic, money supply knowledge and no economic education other than understanding of sentiment and the foundation of the modern capital market system. So far I have out performed the experts I have spoken to in both banking, stocks and property markets. The only reason I can come up with is even those people don’t seem to have a rudimentary understanding of debt saturation. They all shared one thing in common which was the belief that debt can sustain more debt. I on the other hand have never been able to fathom that out and neither it seems has the average family.
Anyway I’m guessing there are more people in the world like me who don’t claim to understand all the the abbreviations flying around referring to countless descriptions of debt packages, and they too will buy gold based on what they can understand and upon historical knowledge. This alone should make my gold worth increase over the next few years.
Urrrgh! Singapore now officially the first Asian economy in recession.
I keep hoping, as I’m sure half the world is, that somehow this is all going to work out fine, that all this selling is panic and over done, but clearly that simply aint the case.
The thing that strikes me is that yes, people that follow markets and stocks understand what’s coming, at least in an abstract sort of way, but I get the feeling Joe Sixpack on Main Street has no real idea of the economic tsunami that is heading his way.
I believe you are right. An interview on Bloomberg with the head of a large U.S. white goods firm stated that sales figures were largely uninterrupted. As he said, people still have wages coming in and are still buying.
This tells me what you suspect Huang Guang Chen, which is that people are still going about their daily business unaware that by next year they may have no job and no income.
I believe you are right. An interview on Bloomberg with the head of a large U.S. white goods firm stated that sales figures were largely uninterrupted. As he said, people still have wages coming in and are still buying.
This tells me what you suspect Huang Guang Chen, which is that people are still going about their daily business unaware that by next year they may have no job and no income.[/quote]
My friends in the states (in their rocking 20s and 30s) are still talking about buying 52" TVs and whatnot, and they’re ridiculing me for recommending them to save money…
I’m so glad that finally in my forties I’ve managed to shrug off the Anglo Saxon habit of spending every single cent I’ve earned before the next pay’s come in, and then borrowing more for the must haves. The problem now is, will the freakin’ banks foreclose and gobble it all up. That would really, really suck!
Realised I hadn’t had a shot at plotting the Dow. i’d say it settles into a long flat, low volume traipse between 7-7500 next year, as the bear sits on the damned market. the only good news, and this is premised on maintaining a job and cash, is that hopefully at some point there will be some nice valued stocks to pick up.
But do they buy on credit or do they have the cash?[/quote]
only a few of them pay cash. They blow most of their income on booze anyways.[/quote]
I can’t be out of money, I still have checks, er, a credit card, er, a home equity line of credit, er, a paycheck loan.
Try emailing your U.S. representative. I recently tried. I tried Bam Bam and Micky. This was still while McClintock was running too. All I got back was that I had joined their particular political party. Nobody said, “Dude, your full of shit” I expected at least that. My suggestion: OK, Only forumosans will know of my great idea.
U.S. needs to put people back to work. It worked with the Hoover dam and it will work today. I suggest that the U.S. establish a grid of 4 East West Mag Lev trains combined with 6 north - south trains. All would follow as close as possible, the ROW that is already owned by DOT for our freeway system. The trains simply run above when possible. Double rails installed so that a single wide train can run while developing and later a double wide running on two sets of rails. Later, as the system grows the double wide could grow to double decker with each cabin holding 400 plus in comfort with attendant service and all the accomodations one would expect of first class air service. Energy supplied by rail beds line with solar panels and upright supports for the track holding wind generators. It would be more than energy self sufficient and would most likely provide energy back into the grid. Stations would connect with major airports and train stations for local transportation. No need to stop at stations becuase people would board a specific coach for their destination and computerized equipement would drop that coach at the correct destination and pick up onward bound coaches.
Imagine luggage all tucked into a seperate coach follow 1/4 k back so security is not a problem. Easy board and exit. Freight containers hauled on similar trains intermittent with passenger trains. All fast and convenient.
Trades put back to work? Think about it. Concrete workers, mining, transportation and hauling, carpenters, furnishings, Boeing making 21st century coaches and every other supplier and craft trade that you can think of. All working and finding a reason to buy a house and save money. A hell of alot cheaper, in the long run, than 700 Billion that or great grandchildren will never be able keep up with.
Nobody listens. Maybe Palin! I haven’t tried to contact her yet and she seems to have some balls. Maybe.
[quote=“Enigma”]Try emailing your U.S. representative. I recently tried. I tried Bam Bam and Micky. This was still while McClintock was running too. All I got back was that I had joined their particular political party. Nobody said, “Dude, your full of shit” I expected at least that. My suggestion: OK, Only forumosans will know of my great idea.
U.S. needs to put people back to work. It worked with the Hoover dam and it will work today. I suggest that the U.S. establish a grid of 4 East West Mag Lev trains combined with 6 north - south trains. All would follow as close as possible, the ROW that is already owned by DOT for our freeway system. The trains simply run above when possible. Double rails installed so that a single wide train can run while developing and later a double wide running on two sets of rails. Later, as the system grows the double wide could grow to double decker with each cabin holding 400 plus in comfort with attendant service and all the accomodations one would expect of first class air service. Energy supplied by rail beds line with solar panels and upright supports for the track holding wind generators. It would be more than energy self sufficient and would most likely provide energy back into the grid. Stations would connect with major airports and train stations for local transportation. No need to stop at stations becuase people would board a specific coach for their destination and computerized equipement would drop that coach at the correct destination and pick up onward bound coaches.
Imagine luggage all tucked into a separate coach follow 1/4 k back so security is not a problem. Easy board and exit. Freight containers hauled on similar trains intermittent with passenger trains. All fast and convenient.
Trades put back to work? Think about it. Concrete workers, mining, transportation and hauling, carpenters, furnishings, Boeing making 21st century coaches and every other supplier and craft trade that you can think of. All working and finding a reason to buy a house and save money. A hell of alot cheaper, in the long run, than 700 Billion that or great grandchildren will never be able keep up with.
Nobody listens. Maybe Palin! I haven’t tried to contact her yet and she seems to have some balls. Maybe.[/quote]
Mmm-Hmm. Sounds beautiful. I’m just sitting here trying to come up who all would be using this system. Sure, business guys-n-gals from all over would love it. Trouble is, there are a handful of high traffic business destinations and huge swaths of nothing in between. Now, if there were also decent public transport available at all destinations, and especially at the mostly nothing places in between, then I can see a lot of people using it to visit family or travel for interviews–whatever. But as is, this entire system would serve too small a percentage of the population to enable it to be more affordable than flying. Even so, your mag-lev system is oil free and that’s great, but who’s gonna build it when flight infrastructure is already in place and oil is back under $80 a barrel?
Also, from what I hear, the power grid in the US is out dated and might not even be able to handle large scale contributions from huge self efficiant energy producers such as your idea would be.
Unfortunatly, America has become a place where worst practices pay the best.
A lot of the folks who love the idea of off shore drilling for oil in US waters, in part because it will create jobs, would balk at their now fifteen year old sons going to work on an off shore rig five years from now.
Who knows these things? Let’s say 8500.55 just to have a guess in there.
Other than that optimistic guesstimate, I have to agree with some of the earlier posts that we’re all probably in for a big surprise. If not by September 2009, then in the next two to five years…
[quote=“housecat”][quote=“Enigma”]Try emailing your U.S. representative. I recently tried. I tried Bam Bam and Micky. This was still while McClintock was running too. All I got back was that I had joined their particular political party. Nobody said, “Dude, your full of shit” I expected at least that. My suggestion: OK, Only forumosans will know of my great idea.
U.S. needs to put people back to work. It worked with the Hoover dam and it will work today. I suggest that the U.S. establish a grid of 4 East West Mag Lev trains combined with 6 north - south trains. All would follow as close as possible, the ROW that is already owned by DOT for our freeway system. The trains simply run above when possible. Double rails installed so that a single wide train can run while developing and later a double wide running on two sets of rails. Later, as the system grows the double wide could grow to double decker with each cabin holding 400 plus in comfort with attendant service and all the accomodations one would expect of first class air service. Energy supplied by rail beds line with solar panels and upright supports for the track holding wind generators. It would be more than energy self sufficient and would most likely provide energy back into the grid. Stations would connect with major airports and train stations for local transportation. No need to stop at stations becuase people would board a specific coach for their destination and computerized equipement would drop that coach at the correct destination and pick up onward bound coaches.
Imagine luggage all tucked into a separate coach follow 1/4 k back so security is not a problem. Easy board and exit. Freight containers hauled on similar trains intermittent with passenger trains. All fast and convenient.
Trades put back to work? Think about it. Concrete workers, mining, transportation and hauling, carpenters, furnishings, Boeing making 21st century coaches and every other supplier and craft trade that you can think of. All working and finding a reason to buy a house and save money. A hell of alot cheaper, in the long run, than 700 Billion that or great grandchildren will never be able keep up with.
Nobody listens. Maybe Palin! I haven’t tried to contact her yet and she seems to have some balls. Maybe.[/quote][/quote]
I’ve got a better idea. Send poor, cost free soldiers off to fight a foreign country, producing profit from equipment sales. Once they have taken control, give all the most important companies and/or mining/drilling rights to rich ‘friendly’ companies to control, making the rich richer. Charge all costs to taxpayers, and play the whole operation in the name of “freedom and justice for all.” or something to that effect! Keep all profits, and keep an army in the occupied territory to provoke further attacks of aggression, which will be used as a reason to invade yet another country. Continue until troops or public funds have been exhausted. Once done, continue by opening another central bank in another country and control its money and businesses by way of freshly installed and friendly politicians, before beginning again.
This plan if effected properly will gain public sentiment for a ‘just cause’, reduce unemployment by way of increased armed forces and armament companies, yet increase profits for fascist companies, loyal to ‘the cause’. The operation will distract the public from government thus allowing for the implementation of further control measures related to education, public freedoms and finance.
Sh*t! I’m good!
Edit: Balls! It seems that’s been done a few times already. I hate it when that happens!
Alright, I guess the train idea seems a bit fresher after all.
