"which" green stock will best exploit upcoming changes?

Business Money
1

A lot of people seem to be agreeing that the low stock prices we are seeing at present represent a once in a lifetime investment opportunity. There seems to be less forthcoming on “which” stocks to invest in. Proabably a lot of us would rather invest in something environmentally positive as well, and it appears we might just have the opportunity to make money particiapting in something we believe in.

fool.com/newsletters/18/sfr/ … ignid=1562

Does anybody have any advice on which particular stocks? An alternative energy ETF perhaps? Low end investors aren’t likely to gain access to the kind of information they would need to invest wisely in a particular company so paying fund managers might be the only alternative.

On the other hand, I am still inclined to give it to GM. The prices are low. The executive has been humbled. They have an incentive to switch to producing more electric cars…

Or check this…

wwj.com/Report–Compact-Powe … le/3210223

It’s forty cents a share. WTF?

2

[quote=“bob”]A lot of people seem to be agreeing that the low stock prices we are seeing at present represent a once in a lifetime investment opportunity. There seems to be less forthcoming on “which” stocks to invest in. Proabably a lot of us would rather invest in something environmentally positive as well, and it appears we might just have the opportunity to make money particiapting in something we believe in.

fool.com/newsletters/18/sfr/ … ignid=1562

Does anybody have any advice on which particular stocks? An alternative energy ETF perhaps? Low end investors aren’t likely to gain access to the kind of information they would need to invest wisely in a particular company so paying fund managers might be the only alternative.

On the other hand, I am still inclined to give it to GM. The prices are low. The executive has been humbled. They have an incentive to switch to producing more electric cars…[/quote]

As far as GM goes, you need to see if they will get the bailout money. Imagine if you buy them first thing Monday morning and then the bailout falls apart for whatever reason. The stock plummets and you take a huge paper loss. If GM goes bankrupt then you lose everything. If it gets bought by a Japanese or German company then they might be able to purchase the stock for a fraction of the price. It’s a pretty high risk guess right now.

The thing is that the market is so depressed right now (value wise) that it looks like a good deal on a large variety of stocks. The catch is that its also very volatile right now. You see a 500 point rally wiped out by a 600 point plummet of the Dow Jones (American centric right now). You can’t “catch the knife” at the lowest point and ride the bull back up. You’ll probably end up doing one of either two options. A is you purchase too early, the stocks go down, you get some paper losses and then wait for them to turn back around and you’ll make your money long term. Option B is that you wait until the market starts to climb for days or weeks consecutively and then rush in to purchase stocks and hold long term. You’ll loose some potential profit but won’t freak out over daily market changes.

Each option has its pros and cons.

3

I just found this…

news.moneycentral.msn.com/provid … id=9431573

[quote]Nevertheless, aid for GM is expected to kick off a restructuring process that will resemble a bankruptcy proceeding but under the oversight of appointed officials rather than a federal judge.

Depending on terms, the $2.5 billion of GM’s market value could be wiped out for shareholders. The automaker is working to slash $30 billion in debt and could offer equity to existing creditors, including the United Auto Workers.[/quote]

I think I’m going to back away on the GM idea. :blush:

4

Highway construction firms?

finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AGVA

5

Here we go…

indexuniverse.com/sections/n …

[quote]The Bush administration has focused more on oil- and transportation-related issues, noted Magoon. “But this presidential campaign has really brought more attention to solar energy. And Jim Cramer led off his television show on Monday making a solar ETF one of his first post-election trades,” said Magoon.

The popular CNBC stock trader picked The Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF (NYSEArca: TAN) as one of his top choices for the new year. It was up more than 10% in the final hour of trading. That came after TAN jumped better than 15% the day before. In the past five trading days, the ETF has gained 48%-plus, according to Morningstar data.

That signals a complete turnaround for TAN, which launched in April. In the past three months, the fund had returned -48.32% through Monday.

The Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (AMEX: KWT) has gotten an even bigger bounce. The fund, which also launched in April, has soared—though by somewhat less. In the past five trading days, it’s up 45%; on Monday alone it gained 11.66%.

Obama is considered more solar-friendly than Republican candidate John McCain in some circles. But analysts along Wall Street have been putting out notes lately warning that such views, whether accurate or not, aren’t enough fuel to support such a big run-up in stock prices. Many market observers are warning that after a so-called “Obama Bounce,” the sector could be due for a considerable slowdown.[/quote]

Or we could be due another chance to buy…

finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATan

6

“Invest” is the wrong term right now when speaking about ‘green energy’ shares.

The father of security analysis, Ben Graham, was very clear on the difference between ‘Investment’ and ‘Speculation.’

Anybody trying to ‘exploit upcoming changes’ with a position in ‘green stock’ right now is speculating, pure and simple. Let’s not pretend otherwise, lest someone take us for fools …

7

[quote=“bob”]Here we go…

indexuniverse.com/sections/n … -soar.html

[quote]The Bush administration has focused more on oil- and transportation-related issues, noted Magoon. “But this presidential campaign has really brought more attention to solar energy. And Jim Cramer led off his television show on Monday making a solar ETF one of his first post-election trades,” said Magoon.

The popular CNBC stock trader picked The Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF (NYSEArca: TAN) as one of his top choices for the new year. It was up more than 10% in the final hour of trading. That came after TAN jumped better than 15% the day before. In the past five trading days, the ETF has gained 48%-plus, according to Morningstar data.

That signals a complete turnaround for TAN, which launched in April. In the past three months, the fund had returned -48.32% through Monday.

The Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (AMEX: KWT) has gotten an even bigger bounce. The fund, which also launched in April, has soared—though by somewhat less. In the past five trading days, it’s up 45%; on Monday alone it gained 11.66%.

Obama is considered more solar-friendly than Republican candidate John McCain in some circles. But analysts along Wall Street have been putting out notes lately warning that such views, whether accurate or not, aren’t enough fuel to support such a big run-up in stock prices. Many market observers are warning that after a so-called “Obama Bounce,” the sector could be due for a considerable slowdown.[/quote]

Or we could be due another chance to buy…

finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATan[/quote]

Look at that volatility though. I don’t mean to be a downer, as I would love to invest in some solar energy EFT’s but that looks like a hugely speculative market. The preceding three months has it down 48% and in the last week it regained 45%. That looks like a damn big bubble if Obama says “hey we don’t have the money right now, we’ll send the funds out after we get the country back on track”. Looking at this market he could even say that they will invest less than projected (still more than invested now) and the fund will tank.

I’m going to wait until after January to invest. Once Obama is actually in office and people aren’t trying to guess what he’ll do (for a quick buck) then the situation will calm down.

8

Why don’t you research the makers of solar panels, some of which are in Taiwan. Their stocks have been kicked down recently too.

9

I will. Meanwhile I have few more…

Power Shares Traded Fund Trust 2
finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3A+PWND

Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF
finance.google.com/finance?q=AMEX%3AKWT

Market Vectors Glbl Alternative Energy Trust ETF
finance.google.com/finance?q=GEX

10

[quote=“bob”]http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/n …

Or we could be due another chance to buy…[/quote]

Or maybe not…

finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATan

11

One more…

finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXFTSE%3AEOEE

Up.

12

And another…

finance.google.com/finance?q=SQM

These are the guys that supply the sodium ions (or something - I forget actually) that GM is going to use in the batteries that power their new car, the Volt.

As I recall, there is potentially a shortage of the stuff.

(This is one of those “something I read somewhere” deals. Anyway, it’s up.)

13

[quote=“bob”]And another…

finance.google.com/finance?q=SQM

These are the guys that supply the sodium ions (or something - I forget actually) that GM is going to use in the batteries that power their new car, the Volt.

As I recall, there is potentially a shortage of the stuff.

(This is one of those “something I read somewhere” deals. Anyway, it’s up.)[/quote]

I think these guys are in the supply chain for GM, but don’t deal with them directly.

SQM sells their Lithium (Carbonate, Hydroxide, or pure metal) to someone who specializes in making batteries, like LG Chem. LG Chem owns CPI, the group who is rumored might win the contract to provide the batteries for the first gen production versions of the vehicle.

14

You can’t predict the future. So approaching stocks as if you can predict the future is dangerous.

Buying a market index is the best way most investors can take advantage of a massive decline in stock valuations. Any stock can fail or decline so dramatically that it might as well have failed. (Just look at Lehman Brothers.) But the chance of the overall market failing is much slimmer.

15

“Rumored might win the contract,” now that’s risky. This is a big insiders game. The people who actually “know” who is going to get the contract will win. The rest of us are left wondering. Taking shots in the dark. For example, I went looking around for which listed highway construction firms are going to get the contracts on all the infrastructure projects… came up with nadda. Then I got wondering who manufactures the light bulbs that Obama is going to put every where. Again… nadda. You can “guess” I suppose that whoever the biggest contractors or manufacturers are are going to be the ones to get the contract but who can guarantee?

16

Will definitely look into that. Thank you.

17

Another way would be to use the technology yourself and get expert in it or talk to the experts. Ask them what’s their impression of power, reliability etc. For instance, TF solar compared to silicon solar. That would be a lot easier if you were living in Arizona rather than Taiwan of course. I work in the medical business, I would feel more confident in investing in one company over another just because after using certain technologies hands-on I can understand the benefits more clearly rather than a stock brokers advice. Sometimes it’s not clear what will be the key point for the market, the key point might be degredation or difficult in handling or low volume.
Of course as the previous poster noted as a non-expert investor a fund might be the best bet but you have to pay the fees. The mining stock mentioned there would probably be worth a go, simply as there are few mines for lithium carbonate worldwide. While they could find more to balance supplies it’s likely pure speculation would drive the price up in the next few years of all those related lithium stocks (that would be a make quick money and sell off quickly scenario). If you check their chart they used to be valued at 50 USD during the commodities bubble.

18

[quote=“headhonchoII”]Another way would be to use the technology yourself and get expert in it or talk to the experts. Ask them what’s their impression of power, reliability etc. For instance, TF solar compared to silicon solar. That would be a lot easier if you were living in Arizona rather than Taiwan of course. I work in the medical business, I would feel more confident in investing in one company over another just because after using certain technologies hands-on I can understand the benefits more clearly rather than a stock brokers advice. Sometimes it’s not clear what will be the key point for the market, the key point might be degredation or difficult in handling or low volume.
Of course as the previous poster noted as a non-expert investor a fund might be the best bet but you have to pay the fees. The mining stock mentioned there would probably be worth a go, simply as there are few mines for lithium carbonate worldwide. While they could find more to balance supplies it’s likely pure speculation would drive the price up in the next few years of all those related lithium stocks (that would be a make quick money and sell off quickly scenario). If you check their chart they used to be valued at 50 USD during the commodities bubble.[/quote]

There is some very sound advice in here. Invest in what you know. If you understand a business and its upside then you have an advantage over all the gusy who are just tracking the share price. The problem with this is that even when you think you know, you don’t always have all the facts. I spent about half my career so far in Banking and the other half in Life Insurance … most recently bought bank stocks which plummeted whilst Life companies have done well this week - hey ho

19

[quote=“Edgar Allen”][quote=“headhonchoII”]Another way would be to use the technology yourself and get expert in it or talk to the experts. Ask them what’s their impression of power, reliability etc. For instance, TF solar compared to silicon solar. That would be a lot easier if you were living in Arizona rather than Taiwan of course. I work in the medical business, I would feel more confident in investing in one company over another just because after using certain technologies hands-on I can understand the benefits more clearly rather than a stock brokers advice. Sometimes it’s not clear what will be the key point for the market, the key point might be degredation or difficult in handling or low volume.
Of course as the previous poster noted as a non-expert investor a fund might be the best bet but you have to pay the fees. The mining stock mentioned there would probably be worth a go, simply as there are few mines for lithium carbonate worldwide. While they could find more to balance supplies it’s likely pure speculation would drive the price up in the next few years of all those related lithium stocks (that would be a make quick money and sell off quickly scenario). If you check their chart they used to be valued at 50 USD during the commodities bubble.[/quote]

There is some very sound advice in here. Invest in what you know. If you understand a business and its upside then you have an advantage over all the gusy who are just tracking the share price. The problem with this is that even when you think you know, you don’t always have all the facts. I spent about half my career so far in Banking and the other half in Life Insurance … most recently bought bank stocks which plummeted whilst Life companies have done well this week - hey ho[/quote]

But that is a contradiction, of course. I don’t think it is a bad idea to know the product you are investing in, but that is no guarantee either, as per your experience.

The one I am looking at now is a polysilicon manufacturer. Polysilicon is used to make semiconductors “and” to make solar panlels, and from what I can gather there is going to be a shortage of the stuff. Only about eight companies in the world manufacture it. I could only find one that was listed.

finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AWFR

I have read here and that about this company, all good.

20

Eh Bob there’s been a shortage of polysilicon for years! They sign contrats for supply up to 5 years ahead. The price floats up and down continuously.