"which" green stock will best exploit upcoming changes?

But the shortage is about to get larger. Isn’t that the kind of thing that drives up prices, supply and demand and all that. And if the price of a manufacturers product goes up their profits (everything else being equal, which I am sure it never is, but just for the sake of argument) go up and so do the dividends and share prices. What am I missing?

What you are missing is they may have already factored that all in the current share price. If the rate of growth slows down, even though still growing, the share price could drop.

By that logic you could preclude the advisability of investing in anything, couldn’t you?

Anyway, I don’t think the rate of growth in the demand for semiconductors and solar panels (and by extension polysilicon) is going to drop. I think it is going to do the opposite. Obama claims that he is going to invest in energy self sufficiency. The majority of Americans are in favor of granting tax relief to people investing in it. They are in a mood to buckle down and invest in products with a long term pay-off. There will be more and more focus on solving global warming problems…

Having said that, I realize that it is difficult to get enough information to invest wisely in particular companies and so went to the opposite extreme and followed up on somebody’s suggestion that the way to “safely” exploit drops in share prices was to invest in market indexes.

Putting the two notions together I came up with this…

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re … k_exchange

NASDAQ seems to have the most alternative (particularly solar) energy companies. I don’t imagine they will have much of an impact on those shares prices in the short term, but over the long term, who knows?

Bob, it’s simple really. If they factored in 100% growth rate for the next five years into their price estimate, then if it didn’t acheive such a growth target it can easily get decimated. It depends how ‘hot’ the stock is. Some stocks don’t trade on current revenue, they trade on the potential for revenue of the next year or several years.

What about liquor? If the economy is bad, people drink to escape. If it’s good, people drink to celebrate. Not very PC, but it seems to me that investing in liquor companies should be pretty safe. What do you commerce/economics graduates think?

What is a price estimate? The price isn’t an “estimate”. The price is what people are willing to pay for it, no?

(…would like to caveat this entire discussion with admission that I know less about this kind of thing than anybody you will ever meet. It should be illegal to be as ignorant as I am. Ignorant or not though the market will go up or down. A lot of people seem to think it is going to go up. They are too low not to come up. Governmemts are lowering interest rates, intitiating stimlus packages…)

I think potential sales have already been factored into the price estimate.

This is what you want. I think it was Jaboney or Urodacus (sorry if the spelling of the previous two names is mangled) posted it a while back. Presenting…the Vice Fund!!!

Anti-PC at it’s best. They invest in “AEROSPACE/DEFENSE, GAMING, TOBACCO, and ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES”. Guaranteed to piss off hippies and peaceniks alike.

Don’t read their EULA though. It may or may not involve selling your soul to Satan for a higher ROI…

Latest update on the polysilicon dealeo…

blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdail … s-falling/

Not pretty.

These are more encouraging…

wind-works.org/articles/Dard … yCity.html


Every green stock I’m watching is up again today, including MEMC.

Yeah, since the fed cut the prime rate, there has been a pretty big rally.


We’ll see what happens later and if the market drops again tomorrow. Unless there was a specific change across the stocks you are tracking, I think it’s a day trader thing.

Agreed. Virtually everything gained nicely yesterday due to the interest rate cut.

As for investing in green in the hopes that Obama’s policies will give them a boost, eh. . . maybe in the long term, but not in the foreseeable future. Obama will have his hands firmly tied trying to rescue the economy first. And dealing with Iraq. And all the other crises left by his predecessor. Additionally, for businesses (or consumers) to shift to green technologies mostly requires substantial capital investment, and very few companies will be able to afford that till at least 2009Q2 or Q3, or probably later.

As mentioned, I personally believe it should be illegal to be as stupid as I am. Having said that, what do you guys think of this…


If the solar industry does well generally, this fund will do well, oui?

For the short term, highway construction outfits should be a good bet. It’s hard to get a bead on which company but everybody is saying…


(Don’t tell me, the future gains have already been figured into the price. :wink:)

MEMC is up again.


This one is hanging in…


OPEC doing us a favor on this one? Does this all happen that fast?

Look at this thing go…


It’s gaining 8% an hour. Not a bad return.

This is interesting too…

examiner.com/x-1660-Baltimor … -than-Coal

There is no such thing as too early to get in on this.

Another one…


5% per hour.

And another one…


And another one…


And another one…


And another one…





All way up.

I would say Sunpower, SPWRA, is probably a good long-term play. they are best positioned to sell to big utilities making solar power stations in the US, the utilities have lots of cash and need to go green over a 10 to 20 year period. spwra might have a slow q1 but when credit conditions improve in Q2, or Q3 they should do well.


[quote=“ajax”]I would say Sunpower, SPWRA, is probably a good long-term play. they are best positioned to sell to big utilities making solar power stations in the US, the utilities have lots of cash and need to go green over a 10 to 20 year period. spwra might have a slow q1 but when credit conditions improve in Q2, or Q3 they should do well.

Thanks. Here they are…


I haven’t had much time recently to keep up with any of this, or to do much research, but will definitely get back at it shortly and report back if I learn anything. Thanks.

delete please