There was quite a bit of talk about relaxing the rules for pilots before it went ahead. It was the pilots that failed to follow the rules. And the hotel for booking a local tour group to watch planes land in the same hotel as the staff and passengers that were quarantining.
There’s been a few studies now that show that vaccinated people can still be infected and be contagious. The vaccinated people have far fewer symptoms and far less serious illness. The leakage rate is between 11-14% depending on who has done the study or the demographics (large city with little to no social distancing Vs smaller city with social distancing rules enforced).
So, for example, if the Tokyo Olympics go ahead and some 70,000+ athletes (vaccinated) descend upon Olympic village and Tokyo you can expect that the vaccine will be ineffective on at least 7,000 of those athletes. This makes them contagious and provides the opportunity for more mutations to the virus itself.
Viruses like this love elite athletes. Elite athletes often have compromised immune systems due to over training and various other supplements comprised within their elite sports diets to prop up things like calcium production and energy levels. You may or may not be aware of stories about elite athletes overuse of antibiotics during the 90s and the subsequent result of them catching the common cold and being sick for 3 months. Often with deteriorating illness ending with pneumonia like issues.
As for the current outbreak in Melbourne it came down to 18 seconds that two doors opposite each other in quarantine were open and there was a push of air from the infected persons room to the person who had just completed quarantine and had been cleared to leave the hotel. 18 seconds. That was all it took. And they are in complete lockdown as it’s the second variant of the India mutation.
Personally I don’t think Taiwan will get this under control until July. Possibly even August. And it’s summer with temperatures that already say “feels like 47 degrees celsius”. Arguing about who relaxed the rules is a distraction from getting it under control. It’s like arguing about unreliable vaccines made in China. Who knows what label is on it or what actual ingredients are inside the bottle.
Specifically, the first line. I remember the discussion and remember that it was nearly universally considered a bad idea. Remind me what they were required to do? Was it three-day quarantine then…remain home for self-monitoring?
What gives you the optimistic outlook that Taiwan WILL get this under control until July or August? I know you meant it as a negative statement, but it is actually quite optimistic. The current measures are clearly not sufficient to cause a decline in cases and the government seems unwilling to introduce harsher measures. So where should the decline come from?
Well… if you believe the government we should have 10 million vaccines by August. Which should at least make a dent in some of these chains of transmission.
Moreover, receiving the vaccines does not mean having applied them and having had time for people to build antibodies.
Furthermore, the vast part of the 10 million vaccine doses projected to be received by Taiwan by the end of August are for the domestic vaccine. While I assume that this vaccine is not totally ineffective, there is currently no information regarding its efficacy. And if you look at the Seychelles, you can see what impact vaccines with a low efficacy have, even if a huge part of the population is vaccinated - virtually none.
Finally, what is not known at all is to what extent the domestic vaccine prevents infections by vaccinated people. So even if it protected those vaccinated from dying which it will presumably do to an as yet unknown extent, then it is in no way guaranteed that this also means that them infecting others is reduced significantly.
So while these vaccine deliveries will of course not make the situation worse, it is rather unlikely that they will significantly improve things by the end of August I am afraid
Which all comes back to the same conclusion: Taiwan must find public health measures to eradicate this outbreak. Vaccines will for a very long time just be the icing on the cake
We won’t really know if the trend line is going down until the end of June. I’m basing that on how the last month has gone. A large part of the issue is people not willing to come forward and get tested because they don’t want to admit they were at their special “tea house” parlour.
3 day mandatory quarantine and a negative PCR test response before being allowed to go home and self isolate for the following 10 days before being allowed to fly again. It essentially allowed the pilots and staff to have an easier rotation and cut costs for airlines from paying for hotel quarantine. Even then it took 3 months for the government to finally agree to it and it is now obvious that those that were supposed to self isolate didn’t do it.
Personally I think they should be named and shamed. If this was a weiguoren pilot working for United or some other carrier it would be headline news. I also think the government should bring in a new fine for people refusing to get tested that went to the brothels that helped this outbreak spread. And the brothels should be forced to open their books to show who was there.
